For 2021’s Dynasty RB rankings, I will be splitting the articles up by tiers. The reasoning for this is twofold.

The first reason is that I think that there are gaps between certain groups of running backs in either talent or value. An example and sneak peek for what is to come is that I have Leonard Fournette ranked one spot above Raheem Mostert. That being said, I think the gap between those two in both talent and in the long-term situation is significant. I value Fournette much more than I do Mostert, but I don’t value any other running backs between the two.

The other reason that I will use the tier system is that I believe the top-tier running backs deserve more explanation than those I have at the bottom. As a result, the tiers get smaller as the tier number gets smaller. This article, the tier 5 article, will be the largest group of running backs, and I will touch on each one briefly. The tier 1 article, meanwhile, will get an in-depth look at the pros and cons of each running back listed.

With all that being said, all of the 36 listed running backs will be listed in descending order. This list is based on a .5 PPR league. The ranking wouldn’t change all that much for either standard or full PPR, but keep that in mind while reading.

36. James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

James Conner, former Pittsburgh Steeler and Panther, is currently a free agent. His value in dynasty could change depending on where he lands, but no matter what happens he will not be a highly valued running back. In 2017 when Conner was drafted, he appeared in a career-high 14 games and ran for 4.5 yards per carry (YPC). While he didn’t touch the ball much, he was effective when he did. During Leveon Bell’s holdout year in 2018, Conner exploded onto the scene in Pittsburgh. He ran for over 900 yards and 12 touchdowns while being effective as a receiver. He secured 55 receptions for 497 yards on 71 targets. Had that receiving production continued, he would be valued much higher.

Unfortunately for Conner owners, however, both his rushing and receiving totals have fallen off significantly since 2018. After averaging 4.5 YPC in each of his first two seasons, he has averaged 4 and 4.3 YPC respectfully in the two seasons since. His receiving production had an even sharper decline, with him just barely surpassing 250 yards through the air in 2019 and just 215 yards in 2020. Wherever Conner lands, expect him to be no more than a committee leader. Even if he stays in Pittsburgh where he is by far the best back, their offensive line is not one that is good enough to make him a value.

35. Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts

Colts running back Nyheim Hines is an electric talent who is buried on the depth chart in Indianapolis. Jonathan Taylor broke out down the stretch in 2020, and before him Marlon Mack ran for over 900 yards in two straight seasons. Hines had a break out for himself in 2020, though, and this 2020 production shows what he can do if he gets in a better situation later on. After being a sub-4 YPC running back during his first two seasons, the stat jumped to 4.3 in 2020 as he ran much better in an increased role after Mack’s injury.

Mack has re-signed in Indianapolis, but Hines will still make appearances in games as a receiver. Hines has had 58 or higher receiving targets in all three seasons he’s played in the NFL, including two seasons above 400 yards receiving. This is despite having just a grand total of 8 starts to his name. Hines will never be more than a solid flex option in Indianapolis, but if he leaves Indianapolis in free agency at 26 years old after this upcoming season he could have a productive couple years left as a receiving back. He is a worthy flier in the mid-late rounds of a dynasty startup draft and will be a potential buy-low option if he starts off the season as the Colts’ RB3.

34. Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

Like Hines, Tony Pollard excelled in 2020 despite still being an RB2. While Ezekiel Elliott struggled through a down year, Pollard at times looked like the better running back. Due to the investment, Elliott will almost assuredly remain the RB1 in Dallas. If the Cowboys staff feels the same way about Pollard as many NFL fans do, he will get fed around 100 carries again in 2021. The reason for Pollard being above the other two is that if Elliott goes down he becomes an RB1. Ezekiel Elliott is a very talented running back, but he has a ton of career carries and looked out of shape last season. The upside of Pollard is much higher than the upside of either Hines or Conner, while his current production isn’t much different. That, to me, makes him the better value.

33. Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills

Of the Buffalo running backs, Zack Moss is the one to own. The running back looked promising at times in 2020. Of course, not enough to make himself the bellcow back in Buffalo, but enough that I think he’ll be the committee leader if no moves are made. Generally speaking, one wants to own running backs who are getting a lot of reps in good offenses. If Moss indeed does become the committee leader in year two, he will be exactly that. That’s a lot of ‘if’s’, but there are reasons to believe me.

Moss had 13 or more touches in the three games leading up to week 17 last season. In the playoff game against the Colts, Moss led the running backs in touches again despite being carted off the field in the fourth quarter. Nobody currently in the Bills running back room is good enough to scare me away from Moss, and as long as nobody else is added the former third-round pick should lead the pack in 2021.

32. David Johnson, Houston Texans

I’ll admit, he has lasted longer than I thought. David Johnson will be the lead back again in Houston as of now. The team did add Mark Ingram this offseason, but Johnson should beat him out for the majority of carries. The issue with Ingram is that he will likely take goalline work from Johnson. That’s okay, though, as with Duke Johnson now gone David Johnson may gain some receiving work. A fair trade, really.

David Johnson is a 29-year old running back that will turn 30 during the season. He really only holds any value at all to win-now teams. That being said, he did have a bit of a resurgence in Houston in 2020 when healthy, and given the Deshaun Watson situation, I imagine the Texans will be running quite a bit in 2021. I think he’s worth a buy as a win-now team, but should be traded by any team outside of the top three or four teams in a league.

31. Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are so confusing. Josh Jacobs has all the talent in the world to be the bell cow back in Las Vegas. Why is Josh Jacobs not the bell cow back in Vegas?! At any rate, given Drakes’ pay, he will very likely take touches away from Jacobs. While Jacobs will undoubtedly get the bulk of the goal-line work, Drake has sprinter speed and can score from anywhere. Maybe that’s why the Raiders want him?

Truth be told, Drake is very tough to rank. On one hand, he has the talent to absolutely take over games during a hot stretch, but on the other, he’s incredibly inconsistent. And now, of course, he’s in a backfield with Josh Jacobs. This is the absolute highest that I can rank Drake, but not necessarily the lowest. I consider him a hold until we learn how the Raiders’ offense will utilize his skill set.

30. Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins

Myles Gaskins‘ rank on this list will change dramatically on draft night. If the Dolphins draft a running back on either of the first two days Gaskin will be nowhere near a top 36 Dynasty running back. On the other hand, if they don’t draft a running back at all he could be pretty valuable.

His situation is almost exactly the same as Chase Edmonds, except Gaskin has competition on the roster. Despite being behind him on the depth chart, Salvon Ahmed appeared to be a slightly better back at times in 2020. Ahmed also had a higher YPC. Not only does Gaskin have Ahmed to worry about, but the Dolphins have also added running back Malcolm Brown. Brown shouldn’t take that many carries from Gaskin, but he could steal touchdowns which is a problem in an already fishy situation.

If I was a Gaskin owner I would personally be looking to sell high. Even if the Dolphins don’t add anyone and nobody else on the depth chart passes him, I don’t think he has the talent to be a long-term answer for the Dolphins at running back. He will be relegated to a backup at some point, it’s just a matter of when.

29. Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals

Speaking of Chase Edmonds, the Arizona Cardinals’ current starting running back is so similar to Gaskin I put them next to each other. As I mentioned before, the reason Edmonds is higher is that Gaskin has a higher chance of losing his job to players already on the roster. Edmonds, on the other hand, is the only running back on the Cardinals’ roster with a single career rushing attempt. Former undrafted free agent Jonathan Ward has one reception for an 11-yard touchdown, but no receiving touchdowns. Sheesh.

The Cardinals should seriously consider drafting a running back in the first three rounds next season. Edmonds has had a high YPC each of the last two seasons, but he just doesn’t look like that good of a running back when watching him. Maybe I’m over-relying on the eye-test here, but I don’t trust Edmonds to be a solid starter for a full season. If he keeps the job I expect his efficiency to plummet. If I was an Edmonds owner, like with Gaskin, I would sell high.

28. AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers

As I brought up in passing with David Johnson, all players should have different values to different teams in different stages. These lists are what I consider to be an imperfect average of that. With that being said, AJ Dillon does indeed have value for tanking teams or as a bench stash. I do believe he’s a good running back and that the Packer’s offense will be good for years to come. I believe in Matt LaFleur, even in the post-Rodgers world.

To win-now teams, Dillon has nearly no value as long as Aaron Jones is still there. Jones will get the overwhelming bulk of the carries, is by far the better receiver, and honestly may be just as good at the goal line. Dillon will get carries and yards, but without receptions and touchdowns, his short-term value is low. I have him on the higher end of this tier because he has long-term value and if Aaron Jones went down he would be at worst an RB2 and probably an RB1. Stash or buy low on AJ Dillon but don’t be afraid to trade him for an extra piece if you own a contender.

27. Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers

Finally, the best player in the worst tier. I fully expect Raheem Mostert to be the starting running back again in San Francisco. That being said, I expect both him and Jeff Wilson to get their fair share of carries. Mostert has been around the NFL a ton but has found a home in San Francisco. His age and the fact that he dealt with injuries as well as the emergence of Jeff Wilson last season are the reasons he isn’t a tier higher.

Typically having a lead running back in a good offense is great, but I don’t trust Mostert to be that for very long nor do I fully trust he will do it for 16 games in 2021. That being said, he is a perfect fit for Shanahan’s offense and as long as he remains explosive he will continue to be the most valuable running back in tier 5 of the dynasty RB ranking.

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