This is the second article in my Dynasty Football RB Rankings Tier list. If you haven’t already, start with tier five to be up to date.

The tier four article will include running backs 26 to 19. Given that they are all in the same tier, I do not think the gap between any of the backs included in this list is very large. That being said, I think that the backs ranked 26 to 23 could be considered a sub-tier. They are even closer in value to my eyes than the other backs within the tier.

As mentioned in the first article, I am making this list based on a .5 PPR Superflex format. This should make the information here easily transferrable to both standard and full PPR scoring systems.

26. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Playoff Lenny had a rollercoaster of a season in 2021. He was cut by the team that drafted him, the Jaguars, in August. This was just about two weeks before week one of the season. About a week after being cut, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Fournette.

During the regular season, Leonard Fournette had a year to forget. He ran a career-low 97 times for 367 yards, which was just 3.8 yards per carry (YPC). During the playoffs, however, Fournette exploded. He had 16 or more carries in three of four games and ran for 4.69 YPC. After totaling 97 carries in 13 regular-season games, he carried the ball 64 times in four games during the playoffs. This is in large part due to the fact that starting running back Ronald Jones II was hurt during warmups before the wild card game after returning from an injury in week 17.

While Fournette’s playoff run will likely allow him to get more touches and he may pass Ronald Jones II for the starting role, both will still get carries. Bruce Arians also would like to get 2020 rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn more touches. All of this leads me to believe that the Buccaneers will be an unpredictable committee in 2021. Given how much talent is on the offense, at least Jones and Fournette will still be productive for the most part, but I could see both of them suffering from inconsistency as certain game plans favor one or the other.

25. Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos

Melvin Gordon‘s career makes no sense to me. How a running back who has run for under 4 YPC in four of six seasons continually finds a lead-back role is incredible. Alas, that’s the role that Melvin Gordon III has once again found himself in. With Philip Lindsay gone, Gordon should get a massive share of the carries in 2021. Even with Lindsay, last year he finished as the RB13.

Gordon will likely be highly productive for your fantasy team this year, but his days are numbered. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Broncos drafted a running back in the first three or four rounds of the draft, but even if they don’t I would consider Gordon to be in the twilight of his career. He will turn 28 in exactly a week as of the time of this writing, which is beginning to be old for a running back. As already mentioned, even while he was young he was never an efficient back. He may have time left as a goalline back, or as the second back in a committee, but there aren’t many teams left that he would be the lead guy for. To me, that kills much of his dynasty value.

As mentioned in the last article, value is very different for teams in different stages. If after the draft the Broncos haven’t added any significant competition for Gordon, he would be a very safe buy for contenders. He would also be a very good sell for rebuilding teams. For trades, I would value him as about a late first to an early second-round pick in rookie drafts.

24. Damien Harris, New England Patriots

If Harris was on almost any other team, his value would be much higher. The simple truth is that trusting a Patriots running back in fantasy is like trusting a significant after they’ve cheated on you multiple times. If you get burnt, it’s your fault.

That being said, there is a lot to like with Harris. If Cam Newton is indeed the 2021 starter at quarterback, the Patriots will be a run-first offense. That means that even if the likes of James White, Sony Michel, and Rex Burkhead all siphon carries from Harris, he will still get enough touches most of the time. He is also very easily the best between the tackles runner on the team, which makes him the most valuable running back on the roster. With 5 YPC last year and nearly 700 yards in just 10 games, there’s reason to believe that Harris can explode into a high-end RB2 or even an RB1. We’ve seen plenty of Patriots running backs make it to this point, though, and they tend to never take that next step.

Harris being in this tier is through no fault of his own. Like the Buccaneers running backs, he is here because of his situation. On many teams in the league, Harris would be an easy RB2. The Patriots, though, are just too unpredictable.

23. Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Whether it is Fournette or Ronald Jones II that is the lead back in Tampa for 2021, I still have Jones ranked slightly higher for Dynasty purposes. Fournette is just on a one-year deal and is 26 years old. Jones, meanwhile, will turn 24 in August and was incredibly efficient when healthy last season.

Ronald Jones II ran for 5 YPC last season. His backfield mate Leonard Fournette‘s career-high in the regular season is 4.3. Of course, prior to last season, Fournette was never in that great of an offense. That makes a big difference in an RBs efficiency, but the gap should be noted. Jones is a good running back, and even if the future of Tampa belongs to Fournette, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, or someone else Jones has an NFL future. That is worth something to me, and it should be to you too. To me, it’s the difference between Fournette and Jones. In Dynasty worrying about anything past three years is a fool’s errand. I feel more comfortable having Jones for the next three years than Fournette for the next three years.

I would consider Jones a hold now, maybe a buy if you really like him but definitely not a sell. For what it’s worth, Dynasty 101’s trade calculator considers him to be worth a mid-late first-round pick in rookie drafts.

22. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns

Kareem Hunt is by far the best committee back in the NFL. He finds himself on a run-first team with a good offense and his committee mate is an elite talent at the position. Hunt himself is fantastic as well. He’s an excellent receiver and gets occasional goal-line work. Finally, of course, Kareem Hunt is one injury away at any given time from being a premier RB1.

Kareem Hunt’s career has been very up and down. In my first paid Dynasty league, I owned him in 2018 and had him paired with Todd Gurley. After the kicking incident, I traded away Hunt and kept post-injury Gurley. I made the wrong decision. Kareem Hunt is a premier talent who would be much higher on this list if it wasn’t for the fact that he shares the backfield with a top-five running back in terms of talent.

He boasts a career 4.6 YPC and has never been targeted less than 50 times out of the backfield in a 16 game season. Hunt will turn 26 before this season, but given that he’s only spent a season and a half as a lead back he’s fresh for his age. He has had a relatively clean bill of health in his career, with the biggest blips being a hernia during his suspension and a minor quad injury this past season.

Kareem Hunt is a mid-low tier RB2 right now with RB1 upside if Nick Chubb goes down. He’s in a run-first offense and is valued as a pass-catcher when on the field. There’s a lot to like about Kareem Hunt.

21. David Montgomery, Chicago Bears

David Montgomery is a solid back in an awful situation with a massive carry share. If the Bear’s offense improves, so will Montgomery’s value. For now, though, he’s a bit stuck.

Matt Nagy taking back the play-calling role on offense from Bill Lazor is a massive hit to Mongtomery’s stock. With Bill Lazor as the play-caller from week 10 to week 17, Montgomery averaged just barely under 100 yards per game (YPG) and over 5 YPC. He also had seven of his eight touchdowns between weeks 12 and 17. Bill Lazor was much better for the Bears’ offense as a whole, but especially for Montgomery. Montgomery’s receiving production nearly doubled with Lazor as the play-caller, and I wouldn’t even consider that his strength. As a Montgomery owner myself, I am rooting for Nagy to be fired as soon as possible next season.

I consider Montgomery a hold at this point. As I said with Ronald Jones II, he could be a buy if you’re especially high on him but now is not the time to sell. For Montgomery’s sake, I hope a new regime can build a better offense in Chicago than this one has.

20. Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks

Pete Carrol wants to run the ball more. For Russell Wilson, that’s bad news. For Chris Carson owners, though, that’s big. If Chris Carson stays healthy, he will have a massive 2021. That’s a big ‘if’, though.

Chris Carson is a very talented back. He has averaged over 13 fantasy points per game in three of four seasons according to fantasy data. He’s in a great offense and his job is safe for at least a season or two. The primary issue with Chris Carson right now is that through four seasons he has never played in 16 games. He’s someone you draft knowing that they will miss a handful of games. While it’s unfortunate, that doesn’t turn me off too much from Carson. At this point, his injury history is figured into his value. In a recent startup draft, I was able to draft him after both Montgomery and Hunt had been picked already. I like that value.

I think Carson is a very firm hold. He could be a buy for a contender, but you may have to overpay to get him. In the majority of situations, I think he’s a hold at this point in his career. He’s not someone I would want to buy unless already contending given his injury history and age, but if the team does indeed go run-heavy this season there will likely be a better sell-high time.

19. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott had a rough 2020. He had COVID last summer and looked like he wasn’t in the best shape of his career for much of the season. His franchise quarterback suffered an awful injury early in the season, and Elliott’s backup outplayed him at times. Once again, rough year for Elliott.

During our running back consistency grade episode of Belly Up Fantasy Live, host Dan Mader asked me if I thought that Elliott would bounce back next season or if I thought we were nearing the end. Of course, I answered yes. I think that we are nearing the end of Ezekiel Elliott being a premier running back. I also think that Ezekiel Elliott will bounce back next season. An offseason removed from COVID and being a back for an offense with an abundance of weapons will take a ton of pressure off of Elliott. That being said, he did look like he wasn’t the same athlete at times last season. He’s also just aging and has had a ton of carries in his career. Elliott turns 26 this summer and in the NFL alone has over 1400 career carries.

Elliott is a very solid buy option for a contender at the right price. I would pay 1.03 or later for him if I own a team that I think is a premier running back away. I feel very confident that Elliott will be a top 12 RB next season, and that he has at least two or three seasons left as an RB2 or higher.

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