This is the third article in my Dynasty Football RB Rankings Tier list. If you haven’t already, start with tier five and tier four to be up to date.

This article includes RB ranks 18 down to 11. While the last edition of this article had a wide range of talents and values, this article is much closer in talent except for the 11 spot. Everyone in this list is at minimum an RB2 with upside.

As mentioned in the first article, I am making this list based on a .5 PPR Superflex format. This should make the information here easily transferrable to both standard and full PPR scoring systems.

18. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles

Miles Sanders is a very talented, young running back. Typically, that is a recipe for success in dynasty. And Sanders will be a very solid Dynasty asset for the next few years at least. The issues that have led to him placing 18th instead of 12th in this list are largely ones that are out of his control.

 First, the Philadelphia Eagles offense is not one that figures to be all that great in 2021. One can’t fault the team for having moved on from Carson Wentz after last season’s showing, but Jalen Hurts is unlikely to be a world-beater at quarterback. Given the skill position talent outside of Sanders, that’s likely what it would take for the Eagles to have an effective passing offense. A receiving corps of Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, and Travis Fulgham will certainly not scare defenses. Sanders could certainly fall victim to being schemed against and being a running back on a team that routinely plays from behind. That is the reality of the Eagles in the intermediate future. They are not a team that will be fixed in one offseason.

Back to Hurts, he is the other factor that keeps Sanders’s value low to me. Jalen Hurts very well may be the primary runner on the team, and even if he isn’t he will certainly cut into Sanders carries. Sanders played in of the four games that Hurts started. Sanders exploded for 115 rushing yards and two touchdowns against New Orleans, but he did it with 14 carries. In the next game against Arizona, he received 17 carries but only ran for 64 yards. He did have a nice 26-yard reception, though. Finally, against Dallas, he was back down to 15 carries. Granted, Dallas lost by 20 so this could be a case of the team being down by too much for him to be effective rather than Hurts cutting into his carries. Either way, there’s a very real chance that he averages near 15 carries a game next season. While that would extrapolate out to a healthy 255 carries over 17 games, it’s worth mentioning that Sanders has never handled that many carries in the NFL or college. In both of his NFL seasons, he has had around 180 carries, while his career-high in carries at Penn State was 220. 

Miles Sanders is an explosive, talented back whose value is limited by his situation. He will likely never have the volume to be a consistent RB1. In 2QB, I think holding him to see what the new Eagles regime does on offense is a solid option, but in 1QB I would be willing to sell him for one of the top 3 running backs in the draft especially if they land in an optimal situation

17. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler is another talented running back that will never receive typical RB1 carries. That being said, he more than makes up for that as a receiver, especially in PPR or .5 PPR. In 2019, Ekeler was one reception short of being a 1,000-yard receiver. He very well may be the Chargers’ second-best receiver after Keenan Allen. 

Joe Lombardi is a big reason to be excited about Ekeler. Lombardi, admittedly, has not had a ton of success outside of New Orleans. That being said, though, the Charger’s weapons on offense won’t exactly be easy to screw up. What makes Lombardi exciting for Ekeler is the role that he talks about the running back in. He compared Ekeler’s skillset to Alvin Kamara, Darren Sproles, and Reggie Bush. Not bad at all. Lombardi has a history of using receiving backs well.

While Sanders and Ekeler are similar in that they won’t receive typical RB1 carries, the difference is in Ekeler’s receiving ability and the fact that Ekeler plays for a much better offense and overall team. Ekeler also doesn’t lose value when the team is behind like most running backs do. He is limited from being a top back, at least outside of full PPR, by his lack of rushing attempts but he is also a very safe back to have outside of injury. Unless you have a need at QB, I think he is well worth a buy at 1.05 or later in 2QB.

16. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are among the most confusing, unpredictable teams in the NFL. I cannot begin to understand the decisions that Gruden makes through Mayock. While I don’t know why the Raiders signed Kenyan Drake, and I certainly don’t know why they’re paying him the money that they are, I do know that it negatively impacts Josh Jacobs’s value. 

Much of Josh Jacobs’s value last season came from the fact that he was a bellcow back. While he ran for under 4 yards per carry, he ran over 270 times. That was enough for him to be the RB8 despite missing a game. What worries me is that if he cedes even 50 carries to Drake it could dramatically hurt his value. Anything under 200 carries for Jacobs would be devastating. While I think Jacobs is better than his yards per carry from last season suggests, the offensive line makeover won’t help him improve the figure going forward. The addition of Drake also likely means that he won’t be taking a step forward in the receiving game. 

Jacobs’s value is hard to place until we know how Gruden will use Drake. If mostly in a receiving role, it won’t be that big of a loss. If this becomes a committee situation where Drake saps 60-100 carries, Jacobs could lost a ton of value. I would call Jacobs a hold at this point unless someone in your league severely overvalues him, in which case of course sell.

15. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs

I would be shocked if Clyde Edwards-Helaire improved to anything past a high-end RB2. What makes his value higher than those below him on this list with a higher upside is that he is incredibly safe, young, and consistent. Despite finishing as RB22 he had just two games last season where he finished outside of the top 36 at his position and scored less than 10 points in .5 PPR just four times. While he doesn’t have the ceiling that other options may have, he has a higher floor.

The talent on the Chiefs offense is simultaneously what limits him and keeps his floor so high. The Chiefs are a comfortably pass-first offense and have some of if not the best skill position talent in the NFL. Despite how bad the offensive line was in the Super Bowl, they’re not that bad when healthy. Young running backs in great offenses have value, even if the other talent on the offense limits their volume.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire averaged a very healthy 4.4 yards per carry this past season and the expectation should be that he either stays the same or improves in this capacity. While he’s too small to be a true bellcow and the nature of their offense wouldn’t support one anyways, he is still essentially locked in as the primary back for the duration of his rookie contract. Between the draft capital used on him and the money that must be given to everyone else on the roster, further investment in the running back position seems unlikely.

I would feel fantastic about my roster if I had Clyde Edwards-Helaire as my RB2, and he would be a great player to pair with one of the more boom or bust running backs in this or the next tier if you can’t secure a top tier guy as your RB1.

14. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

This year will be the year of Joe Mixon. I’ve never said that before. All jokes aside, Mixon has clear talent and as long as Burrow comes back healthy this will be the best offense he’s ever been a part of. Running backs benefit from the rest of their offense being good, and that should hold true for Mixon. Despite how long he’s been in the NFL, Mixon is only 24 and will turn 25 over the summer.

My biggest concern with Mixon is his injury history. Mixon has played 16 games one time in four seasons. Last season a nagging foot injury kept him out the majority of the season. He’s a player that may be drafted with the expectation of him playing 14 games. I think that as long as he is paired with another talented fantasy back or at least someone consistent like Edwards-Helaire the injury issue should be manageable.

Joe Mixon’s on field performance was rough last season as well. He averaged less than 4 yards per carry for the second time in his career. That being said, though, the talent around him on offense has improved. It also feels like a safe bet that the talent around him will continue to improve through the draft. I’m willing to value Mixon highly one more year. I consider him to be a hold, and he could be a buy candidate for a contender with RB depth in a league with an uncertain Mixon owner.

13. Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

When healthy last season, rookie second round draft pick Cam Akers played very well. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry and had 20 or more carries in three of his last four seasons. As implied, though, injuries were a problem for the young back. Another cause for concern is that while Akers was hurt, Darrell Henderson broke out as a talented back as well.

While Henderson did show off talent this past season, he doesn’t appear to be a threat to Akers. In the second half of the season Henderson outcarried Akers just once and that was by one carry week 12. During that game, despite one less carry, Akers had 63 more rushing yards. In weeks 13, 14, and 15 Henderson carried the ball just 6 times combined. It is clear that when Akers is healthy, he is the lead back.

Akers is a young lead back in an offense that figures to have an improved passing game in 2021 with the addition of Matthew Stafford. Akers is just 21 and will turn 22 this summer. Sean McVay is an excellent coach that I trust to maximize his talent. He has high draft capital as a former second round pick. There’s so much to love about Akers, and he can really only be knocked for missing three games and the presence of Henderson. Neither of those things concern me all that much yet. If a manager is low on him he is absolutely worth a buy, but otherwise I would just hold onto him.

12. James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

James Robinson is one of my favorite buys this offseason at the running back position. I have very little concern that he loses much value. In my opinion, the Carlos Hyde signing was a massive win for Robinson owners. Robinson is a 22 year old back that will turn 23 before the season and was a bellcow back as an undrafted free agent rookie. He is talented, he has the size to hoard carries, and he is on an offense that is about to improve quite a bit.

The assumed addition of Trevor Lawrence to the Jaguars will be a massive win for Robinson and his owners. The Jaguars’ passing game was not one that scared many teams this past season. That is part of what led to Robinson being fed the ball so much, and I understand those that are concerned his carries will drop as the passing game and running back depth is improved. I think that even if he has fewer carries the value of each carry will be higher this season. While he averaged a healthy 4.5 yards per carry last season, that could be even higher if the passing offense can create personnel mismatches and if Robinson can get better rest with another back in the mix. As long as he doesn’t drop below 220 carries, I feel strongly that Robinson will finish as an RB1.

It isn’t often that people are this low on a young talented running back with the size to handle a massive load and an offense that has and will continue to improve. As the situation in Jacksonville improves, so will Robinson’s value. He is a fantastic buy. I would value him higher than Etienne but lower than Harris as far as rookie draft capital is concerned. While many are concerned that Meyer has no connection to him, his cost/talent ratio during the next two seasons is nearly unbeatable. They won’t find a better option cheaper than he is currently, which should keep his job relatively safe. While the team could very well add a player with a complimentary skillset, I would be highly surprised if he became anything less than the primary back in a 70/30 split committee.

11. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones is an incredibly talented back on a fantastic offense, and he just received a massive contract. What’s not to love? He is a true RB1 and as long as he’s healthy he will be a massive contributor in fantasy. Why not in the top two tiers, then?

The Packers love to pass in the redzone. Jones has scored less than 10 rushing touchdowns in three of four seasons, and less than 10 total touchdowns in two of four. While he will be the receiving end on a couple of those redzone passes every year, it still limits his ceiling. His ceiling is still very high as a safe RB1, but I would be surprised if he finishes any higher than RB4 and expect him to typically land closer to RB6.

A safe RB6 at 11th though? I have two other minor concerns that explain where I have him ranked. The first is that he is 26 years old. That is the age when the clock really starts to be a factor for running back talent to me. For a few year now data has shown that 26 is the age when the decline begins at the position. This is especially true for smaller backs like Jones.

The other concern is that because of his size he handles less carries than other backs typically do. While his career high in carries in 2019 of 236 was perfect, last season he handled just 201 carries. He had never ran more than 200 times before that. I suspect that the 200 carry mark is about what should be expected of him. With his talent, he can still put up great numbers with that many carries, but it again limits his ceiling.

To me Jones could be a buy, sell, or hold depending on the team. I would hold or buy him as a contender and sell if thin at running back or tanking in general.

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