Every year, that first pick can make your fantasy team. Sometimes things work out, but it feels like it usually doesn’t. Here are some fantasy football busts for the upcoming season. I haven’t included rookies, and I am not saying these guys will suck, just that they will be drafted far too high.

QB: Kirk Cousins

Now, it might be weird to see Kirk Cousins on this list, given his reputation as a mediocre quarterback who can’t win the big game. However, he was a top fifteen QB last season, and closer to number ten than fifteen. This was in large part due to WR6 Justin Jefferson (who we will get into later in this blog).

At the same time, I expect Mike Zimmer and Co. to lean on Dalvin Cook, who has shown an ability to carry the load without serious injuries the past two seasons. This will allow Minnesota to control the clock, and allow Cousins to utilize his greatest strength: his efficiency.

HM: Derek Carr

The signing of Kenyan Drake signals a desire to run more, taking attempts away form Carr.

RB1: Alvin Kamara

I know some people (Saints fans) are going to get mad at this. Yes, Kamara was a beast last year, putting up 25 points per game in PPR. But, with the quarterback options being a guy who lead the league in interceptions two years ago or a tight end, this offense will struggle overall. We have predicted Michael Thomas could actually be undervalued, but overall the passing attack will not be great, allowing teams to focus more intently on Kamara.

RB2: Josh Jacobs

This has nothing to do with regression, offensive line, or Jon Gruden waking up tomorrow and hiring Mike Leach as his OC. This is all about carries. Last year, one player on the Raiders had more than 100 carries: Josh Jacobs. This year, the Raiders have two 200+ carry running backs in Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake. In terms of his NFL value, Jacobs will still be considered a solid running back. In terms of fantasy, he won’t be a top ten RB like last season.

HM: Kenyan Drake

Literally everything I said about Josh Jacobs, but top twelve running back instead of top ten.

WR1: Justin Jefferson

Now, before we get into this, a quick message from a friend for those who are already typing out hate comments:

We good? Ok, let’s get into it.

As I’ve already mentioned, Dalvin Cook will take carries away from Kirk Cousins and, by extension, Justin Jefferson. In addition to this, it will be extremely difficult for Jefferson to top, or even match, last season. “But Kev,” you may be thinking, “that doesn’t mean he will be a bust.” And you’re right, not matching his rookie season won’t make him a bust in fantasy this year. But there are some other factors.

Justin Jefferson will regress in terms of both fantasy and actual football this year. He’s slower than at the combine, running a 4.5 this offseason. In addition to this, he also has one move off the line (quick stutter, then go into his route). DBs will figure this out, and he will not be nearly as good.

WR2: Juju Smith-Schuster

He was WR16 in fantasy last season, so he won’t go super high, maybe a flex or a bye-week fill in option in smaller leagues, but potentially WR2 in bigger ones. However, we don’t know who’s throwing him the ball. A washed Big Ben? Mason Rudolph? Haskins? None of those options give me much confidence.

HM: Davante Adams

He’s a good receiver, but with questions about Jeopardy’s next host coming back and how good Jordan Love will be, just be cautious.

TE: Mike Gesicki

I know Gesicki is getting better every year and was TE7 last season. At times however, he was the only viable receiving option and still only got 85 targets. With a more confident Tua and a potential true WR1 in Waddle, that number will decrease.

HM: Hayden Hurst

Top ten TE last season, but Kyle Pitts will take away targets.

DST: ARI

I know they weren’t great last season, but they were respectable. And I know, they signed (the ghost of) JJ Watt. However, they also lost their sacks leader, their top two interception leaders, and numbers three and four on their tackle totals. Needless to say, look elsewhere for your defensive needs.

There you have it: your 2021 fantasy football busts! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more content, and check out Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy football tips!