Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

2021 Off-Season Changes You Need to Know: Running Backs

We all know which running backs are the set and forget, the ones you never have to worry about. But you don’t always have access to those players. So what about all those running backs that go in the mid to late rounds? These usually are the guys that end up on your roster at some point during the season, whether you drafted, traded, or picked them up off of waivers.

Now, I’m not exactly jumping at the idea of drafting any of these running backs listed in this article. However, I do believe it’s important to know what off-season changes occurred because even the least significant change can impact a player from one year to the next.

1. James Conner

  • Arizona Cardinals – One-year $1.75 million

James Conner has to be one of the most frustrating players to manage in fantasy football. Those who witnessed his incredible breakout the year Le’Veon Bell held out have continued to hold onto that feeling throughout the numerous injuries these past couple of seasons.

Unfortunately, one thing James Conner has proven to be good at is getting injured. He’s just never been able to put together a full season, and in the last couple of years, he constantly looked like he was playing through injuries that absolutely hindered his fantasy production.

I’m expecting James Conner to fit right into the role vacated by Kenyan Drake, and he’ll still be competing with Chase Edmonds who led the backfield last year in targets.

2020 – ARIRUSH/ATTTARGETS
Kenyan Drake23931
Chase Edmonds9767

What will hinder James Conner’s fantasy outlook the most this year though is Kyler Murray. He is this teams’ second-most productive “running back”; he had only 136 rushing yards less than Kenyan Drake and one more rushing touchdown than him.

RUSH/ATT YARDSTDs
13381911
Kyler Murray 2020 – Rushing stats

So that goes without saying, tread lightly if you still believe James Conner can be what he once was fantasy wise.

2. Mike Davis

  • Atlanta Falcons – Two-year $5.5 million

The Falcons have an entirely new running back room this season and a new head coach, Arthur Smith. He was the Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator for the last two seasons and during his tenure there he operated a run-first offense through Derrick Henry, which set up Ryan Tannehill in the play-action passing game.

Let’s say he brings this same offensive scheme to the Falcons; if that’s the case, the running backs on this team should be in store for a busy year. According to RotoWire, the Falcons depth chart has Mike Davis leading this backfield with Cordarrelle Patterson, Qadree Ollison, and Tony Brooks-James backing him up.

But keep in mind Mike Davis isn’t a young buck anymore either, he’s 28 years old and he’ll be heading into his seventh NFL season. This is looking like an RBBC in the works and if I’m looking at taking a chance on Mike Davis or anyone else in this backfield in 2021, it’ll be if someone emerges out of training camp/pre-season.

3. Kenyan Drake

  • Las Vegas Raiders – Two-year $11 million

Kenyan Drake fantasy managers last year did not get what they thought they would out of him, but it’s not exactly his fault his fantasy production dipped.

When you see how many rushing yards and rushing touchdowns Kyler Murray had, all you can think about is all those fantasy points you thought were going to go to Kenyan Drake! But that’s the risk you take with a running back who plays with a good rushing quarterback.

Now Kenyan Drake is playing for the Raiders and he’ll be joining Josh Jacobs in the backfield. The Raiders are going for a 1a/1b running back approach and if Josh Jacobs is used primarily as the main back between the tackles, Kenyan Drake would be used in the open field catching more passes.

Kenyan Drake spoke a little about this this coming season in an interview from the Raiders official website.

“What coach Gruden said that how he was going to use me was just being on the field in a multitude of ways, playing receiver, playing running back. Just having the ability to kind of use my versatility as a weapon in the open field is something that really spoke to me, and to kind of share that role with Josh and him being obviously such a capable back, I feel like it spells success for this team.”

Kenyan Drake

Whether it’s Kenyan Drake or Josh Jacobs, whichever one has the lower ADP going into 2021 is who I’d rather have on my team, but Kenyan Drake holds more upside with the receiving work Josh Jacobs just can’t seem to get.

4. Jamaal Williams

  • Detroit Lions – Two-year $6 million

Like most things, money talks and you don’t pay a guy this much money to not use him. D’Andre Swift fantasy managers may not like to hear that, but it is what it is.

One of Jamaal Williams’ better strengths is in his pass protection and it just so happens that’s an area D’Andre Swift needs to improve in. I’m sure this played a reason for his signing, especially since the new offensive coordinator prioritizes the run game. Last year Swift was ranked in the bottom 30 percent in pass protection of all running backs in the league, so the need to bring someone in is absolutely justified.

Not only that, Jamaal Williams offers a strong pass-catching option in this offense with very few options out there. Even though the Lions are projected to be the worst team in 2021, their offensive weapons will still offer value, you just have to be careful not to overpay for any of them and that includes Jamaal Williams.

YEAR:2020
TEAM:GRE
GAMES:16
TARGETS:104
RECEPTIONS:47
YARDS:523
CATCH%:45.2%
TD:2
EOS RANK:75
end of season rank: standard scoring

Jamaal Williams has always produced on a small workload, and he’s now moving into a situation that gives him the opportunity to do what he’s already been doing, and possibly more.

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