Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

2021 Off-Season Moves You Need to Know: Tight Ends

Hey! I’m back here with the final part of this free agency series and wrapping things up with tight ends.

It’s a tough position to play in the NFL, and a complex position to maneuver around in fantasy football, but with a little general understanding of why only a handful of tight ends are ahead of the pack, you can save yourself a lot of time and energy.

And just like every year, if you don’t cough up the high draft capital for one of the elite tight ends, you’ll usually find yourself reading weekly posts about which tight end to start for that week, and spending too much time scouring the waivers looking for that next break out player.

Tight end is my favorite position to study. There’s this very real feeling of fulfillment when you secure a tight end as an every-week starter, and that feeling amplifies when you hit on one of these tight ends with a late-round draft pick, or a waiver wire add.

In saying that, a few tight ends have shuffled around the league this off-season and we’ll take a look at their new situations and fantasy impact heading into the 2021 season.

1a. Jonnu Smith

  • New England, Patriots – Four-year $50 million

Jonnu Smith had a terrific start to the 2020 season, and even with the low volume he was efficient with what he was given and he produced for fantasy managers.

But that only lasted for a few weeks and unfortunately after a minor ankle injury, he couldn’t carry this output for much longer and he soon was being used as the team’s primary blocking tight end. To nail the point further, he finished the 2020 season second in the league in run-blocking snaps.

Jonnu Smith 2020 – TEN
# SNAPS:745
% SNAPS:69%
TARGETS:65
REC:41
YARDS:448
TD:8
EOS RANK:9
end of season rank: standard scoring

Jonnu had an extremely efficient season on the 30th ranked passing offense in the league, but for the most part, he was used as a pass/run blocker. And blocking is not what you want your offensive players to do. You can’t score points if you’re protecting the quarterback so he can throw the ball to someone else.

With that said, I’m expecting him to continue being a strong pass/run blocker and being used in a similar fashion on the Patriots. The thing is Jonnu didn’t improve much last season as a pass catcher and that aided him in being replaced on third-down passing plays by the backup tight end, Anthony Firkser

But, as soon as Jonnu signed with the Patriots this off-season, fantasy managers roared with excitement at all the new possibilities Jonnu could have, and that hype train came to a startling halt with the signing of Hunter Henry. Now that the Patriots have secured the two top tight end free agents on the market, and they have people speculating if they’re attempting to recreate that same tight end tandem they once had with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

So out of both these tight ends, who’s going to be the guy to draft in 2021? Let’s continue this thought with Hunter Henry below.

1b. Hunter Henry

  • New England, Patriots – Three-year $37.5 million

Meanwhile, over on the west coast in the last couple of seasons, Hunter Henry is ranked eighth in targets and fifth in routes run, but more importantly, he ranks outside the top 15 in run-blocking snaps. Also, before Hunter Henry missed the last couple of games of the year, he was ranked in the top five for most routes run by tight ends.

Hunter Henry2020 – LAC
# SNAPS:913
% SNAPS:78%
TARGETS:93
REC:60
YARDS:613
TD:4
EOS RANK:14
end of season rank: standard scoring

Now that’s what you want out of your tight ends for fantasy production. You want tight ends on your roster that run lots of routes, who rarely block, and who is one of their team’s top two target options. So keeping all this in mind, it’s hard to imagine Henry not being used as a pass-catcher, and Jonnu Smith continuing to be a pass/run blocker.

The Patriots also appear to be building around Cam Newton’s strengths. His rushing ability, keeping his deep throws to a minimum, and opening up the field for the tight ends and pass-catching running backs.

But for Hunter Henry, or anyone on this offense to become a fantasy asset, we need to see more output and efficiency from this offense. Last year the Patriots offense was ranked in the bottom three, in both receptions and yards.

2. Dan Arnold

  • Carolina, Panthers – Two-year $6 million

Dan Arnold is starting to spike my interest. Remember how important it is for your tight end not to be spending his time on the field blocking? Well, good news for Dan Arnold managers, he’s being brought into Carolina as the teams pass-catching tight end, an element to their offense they’ve been missing.

Not only that, but the Panthers are one of the pass friendliest offenses in the league, and they’ve recently parted ways with wide receiver Curtis Samuel, who will also be vacating 97 targets. Even if Arnold only absorbs half of those targets, he has shown he can handle that kind of workload.

Dan Arnold2020 – ARI
# SNAPS:469
% SNAPS:41%
TARGETS:45
REC:31
YARDS:438
TD:4
EOS RANK:23
end of season rank: standard scoring

One downside to Dan Arnold’s fantasy outlook is that he’s not a top-two option on the Panthers and this is important because ll be competing with wide receivers Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, and running back Christian McCaffrey

But, in saying that, at 6’6 Dan Arnold could become a red-zone threat, much like Robert Tonyan was last year in Green Bay.

3. Kyle Rudolph

  • New York, Giants – Two-year up to $16 million

Kyle Rudolph only wants to do one thing and that’s play football. In this off-season, the Vikings gave Rudolph what he wanted and granted him his release. Not long after testing free agency, he’s now officially off to New York to play with the Giants.

Just looking at his stats from last season show how important it is for your tight end to be a pass-catcher and a top-two receiving option to have some sort of fantasy success.

Kyle Rudolph 2020 – MIN
# SNAPS:574
% SNAPS:53%
TARGETS:37
REC:28
YARDS:334
TD:1
EOS RANK:41
end of season rank: standard scoring

Rudolph was an excellent run blocker for the Vikings, and I expect that will carry over to the Giants. Evan Engram won’t be affected by this signing because he is and always has been a pass-catching tight end.

If anything we may actually see Engram line up more out of the slot, now that Rudolph is here. Rudolph doesn’t have any fantasy value, but he does give everyone around him a boost.

4. Gerald Everett

  • Seattle, Seahawks – One-year $6 million

Gerald Everett is leaving the Rams and joining the Seahawks, but he’s not going there alone. The Seahawks also hired the Rams passing game coordinator, Shane Waldron as their new offensive coordinator.

The history these two have together goes back to 2017 when Shane Waldron was the tight ends coach the year Everett joined the NFL. But Everett was originally drafted as a wide receiver, and then later converted into a tight end during his first year in the NFL.

Everett really didn’t produce much of a fantasy season in 2020, but neither did the Rams’ other tight end, Tyler Higbee.

Gerald Everett 2020 – LAR
# SNAPS:636
% SNAPS:57%
TARGETS:62
REC:41
YARDS:417
TD:1
EOS RANK:26
end of season rank: standard scoring

Last season the Rams were ranked 13th in the league with 608 passing attempts and Seattle was ranked 17th with 589. So Everett is also moving to a team that already throws the ball less, but also wants to run the ball even more than what they’ve been doing. I can’t forget to mention Greg Olsen is only vacating a mere 38 targets.

Everett won’t offer fantasy managers much in 2021 unless there are injuries to other pass catchers, but there’s also the possibility that he may be trusted by Shane Waldron in the red-zone, and have a few more touchdowns than anticipated. But again, that’s being hopeful.

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