We’re going to look at the fantasy outlook for the top second-year running backs. Why focus on 2021 sophomore RBs? The thing with the running back position is that many have a short career in the NFL. Pro Football Reference puts the peak of a running back’s career at around 27 or 28, whereas skill players at other positions tend to last longer. That means youth matters a lot more for running backs than for other football players. Also, we’ve seen that running backs tend to adapt to the NFL a lot faster than those from other positions, meaning rookies and second-year running backs can be fantasy studs right away.

How About Dynasty?

From a Dynasty/Keeper point of view, these running backs are even more valuable. Not only should they improve throughout this year, but they can also improve for a few years to come. Plus, since they’re on their rookie contracts, they’re locked into their team for at least 3 years until 2024. Many other running backs are either on expiring contracts or ones that can easily be cancelled by the teams.

Why Not Focus on Rookies?

You might ask, why not talk about rookie running backs instead if youth is so important? The reason is that we haven’t seen them perform at the NFL level. Also, at the time of writing, I don’t know what teams they’ll end up on either. Having seen these sophomore RBs for an entire season gives us an idea of what they can do in the future. There’s a lot of uncertainty with rookies. College performance doesn’t always translate to NFL performance. Knowing their draft capital and landing spots could help though.

2020 Rankings

We’re going to look at the highest fantasy-scoring second year running backs from 2020 according to FantasyPros half-PPR (half-a-point per reception) rankings.

RB Rank	Name	Age in 2020	Team	Total Fantasy Points	Games Played	Average
6	Jonathan Taylor	21	IND	234.8	15	15.8
7	James Robinson	22	JAC	225.9	14	16.1
12	Antonio Gibson	22	WAS	184.2	14	13.2
18	D’Andre Swift	21	DET	166.8	13	12.8
21	J.K. Dobbins	22	BAL	159.5	15	10.6
22	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	21	KC	158.0	13	12.2
43	Cam Akers	21	LAR	96.3	12	8.0
45	Zack Moss	23	BUF	94.6	13	7.3
62	Joshua Kelley	23	LAC	69.7	13	5.4

There are other running backs that just completed their rookie season that we could have looked at as well, but to keep this article from getting too complicated, I kept it to players who averaged 5.0 fantasy points per game or higher. This excludes players like DeeJay Dallas, La’Mical Perine, AJ Dillon, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Anthony McFarland Jr., and Darrynton Evans. These players have pretty little re-draft fantasy value at the moment as they mostly play more of a backup role. Injuries or other roster changes could definitely change that though.

The Obvious Outliers

There are two names that don’t belong with the rest. Zack Moss and Joshua Kelley. Zack Moss is in a mostly 50/50 timeshare with Devin Singletary in Buffalo. Not only that but their quarterback, Josh Allen, also runs the ball a fair amount. Zack Moss will still get carries and the two main Bills running backs are like an RB1A and RB1B duo, but his upside is limited because he isn’t the clear-cut number one option. Joshua Kelley showed some signs of life, but it’s pretty clear Austin Ekeler is the top back in the Chargers backfield for now. Barring injuries, these two won’t be comparable to the rest. If you’re wondering, between the two, I’d rank Moss over Kelley though since he still is fighting for that number one spot.

I can give you my opinions and thoughts, but numbers can help give evidence beyond the analysis. Here are some numbers from Pro Football Reference and Rotowire.

2020 Rushing Numbers

Player	Games	Games Started	Rushing Attempts	Rushing Yards	Touchdowns	Fumbles	First Downs	Longest Rush in Yards
Jonathan Taylor	15	13	232	1169	11	1	69	69
James Robinson	14	14	240	1070	7	3	54	47
Antonio Gibson	14	10	170	795	11	2	40	40
D’Andre Swift	13	4	114	521	8	3	31	54
J.K. Dobbins	15	1	134	805	9	2	38	72
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	13	13	181	803	4	0	39	31
Cam Akers	13	5	145	625	2	1	26	61

Player	Games Started/Games Played	Yards Per Attempt	Yards Per Game	Attempts Per Game	% of Team Rushes	Broken Tackle %	Average Yards After Contact
Jonathan Taylor	13/15	5.0	77.9	15.5	50.5% (52.4)	13.8%	2.6
James Robinson	14/14	4.5	76.4	17.1	71.2%	15.0%	2.8
Antonio Gibson	10/14	4.7	56.8	12.1	42.5%	16.5%	2.0
D’Andre Swift	4/13	4.6	40.1	8.8	31.1%	12.3%	2.1
J.K. Dobbins	1/15	6.0	53.7	8.9	24.1%	20.9%	2.9
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	13/13	4.4	61.8	13.9	44.9%	16.0%	2.2
Cam Akers	5/13	4.3	48.1	11.2	30.7%	13.1%	2.4

2020 Receiving Numbers

Player	Games	Games Started	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns	First Downs	Longest Reception in Yards
Jonathan Taylor	15	13	39	36	299	1	12	39
James Robinson	14	14	60	49	344	3	15	28
Antonio Gibson	14	10	44	36	247	0	9	40
D’Andre Swift	13	4	57	46	357	2	15	26
J.K. Dobbins	15	1	24	18	120	0	4	19
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	13	13	54	36	297	1	12	26
Cam Akers	13	5	14	11	123	1	4	38

Player	Games Started/Games Played	Yards Per Reception	Yards Per Game	Receptions Per Game	Catch Percentage	Yards Per Target	% of Team Targets	Average Yards After Catch
Jonathan Taylor	13/15	8.3	19.9	2.4	92.3%	7.7	7.3%	10.4
James Robinson	14/14	7.0	24.6	3.5	83.1%	5.7	10.1%	8.4
Antonio Gibson	10/14	6.9	17.6	2.6	81.8%	5.6	7.7%	8.4
D’Andre Swift	4/13	7.8	27.5	3.5	80.7%	6.3	10.1%	7.6
J.K. Dobbins	1/15	6.7	8.0	1.2	75.0%	5.0	6.1%	7.3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	13/13	8.3	22.8	2.8	66.7%	5.5	8.9%	8.4
Cam Akers	5/13	11.2	9.5	0.8	78.6%	8.8	2.5%	8.6

Rankings/Analysis

So, what do we do with all these numbers? Well, here are my rankings for redraft and dynasty. To preface these rankings, I think there is a clear number one. After that, the other six are really close, to the point where I considered ranking them 1, 2A, 2B, 2C, 2D, 2E, and 2F. These are my rankings based on my projections, my opinions, and my analysis. Projections, opinions, and analysis will differ from person to person so you’ll probably see these running backs ranked differently all over the Internet. Overall, this is an excellent class of running backs that could be fantasy relevant for years.

1. Jonathan Taylor

I think this one is pretty clear. He’s got one of the best offensive lines, he’s the clear lead back, he’s efficient, and he catches almost everything thrown his way. When Marlon Mack went out early last season, Jonathan Taylor didn’t initially look like the star we thought he’d be. But then he stepped up. I think the numbers above speak for themselves. He proved he could do it last year and there’s nothing that tells me he can’t do it again. Nyheim Hines may still get some work but I see Mack as a backup now. Jonathan Taylor should develop into one of those running backs who fight for the number one spot in fantasy drafts.

2. Antonio Gibson

Going into the 2020 season, Antonio Gibson had a lot of hype. Similar to Jonathan Taylor, he didn’t live up to it at first. However, we saw his potential later on in the season. With what I’d consider a huge fantasy improvement in the offense, and with the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Curtis Samuel, I can see the opportunities and efficiency for Gibson shooting up.

J.D. McKissic isn’t going away, but he plays more of a pass-catching role. Gibson has shown he can catch as well so I could see Gibson’s snap percentage rise this season. Gibson actually used to be a wide receiver so the path to becoming an every down back is definitely there for him.

3. James Robinson

Last year, James Robinson was a waiver wire stud. After Leonard Fournette left, we thought they would see a running back by committee approach with those relatively unknown players. However, they surprised us all when Robinson ended up taking most of the carries. He finished super high, so why am I not as high on him now? He was essentially their entire offense last year. Just look at his team carry and target percentages. They’re absurdly high. Like Christian McCaffrey level. We saw his ceiling. It was a high one, but with the potential of sharing snaps and a better passing game with Trevor Lawrence behind center, I see his numbers falling.

This off-season the Jacksonville Jaguars added Carlos Hyde. I’d consider this mostly good but somewhat bad news for James Robinson. The bad news is that Carlos Hyde is a pretty capable running back who can take some carries away from James Robinson. The good news is that he probably won’t take the RB1 role from James Robinson, and the addition of Hyde seems to indicate the Jaguars won’t add anyone else of note who could significantly eat into James’ carries.

4. Cam Akers

This ranking may be the highest surprise of the group. He’s generally ranked as average to below-average with the numbers I put up just now. So why am I so high on him? We’ve seen over the past few years that whoever the Rams had as their lead back that week, generally did pretty well for fantasy purposes.

The issue was there were three different backs who led at different times last year. Cam only started five games last year. He should be starting all 17 this upcoming year. We saw his potential in the latter parts of the season. Cam also faced a lot of stacked boxes last year. According to NextGenStats, only Peyton Barber, Wayne Gallman, and Damien Harris faced more stacked boxes than Cam Akers did. The new offense should change that.

Cam was also injured early so he didn’t get to play too many snaps. However, to end off the 2020 season, Cam had 21, 29, 15, and 21 carries in the last four games he played. Sean McVay was quoted as saying he thinks Cam is an every-down back. I know this is a bit of a stretch, but we saw what Todd Gurley could do with a three-down role under coach McVay. I’m also super high on the Matthew Stafford addition. I think this offense will be a lot more efficient this upcoming year. We saw that in the playoffs when Akers had 28 carries in his first playoff game and all the running back carries in his second.

Coach Talk

“You saw Darell Henderson step up, Malcolm Brown was really consistent throughout the year, but Cam hit his stride at the right moments. You could see he’s always had a real and authentic confidence, but then as he’s getting more and more comfortable for the different ways that we were able to utilize him, I think he can come alive in the pass game. I think he can continue to play at a high level. Really, I think he’s an every-down back. I think he’s a special player.”

Sean McVay – NFL.com

Another thing to note is that Cam Akers has by far the least amount of touchdowns of this group. With more touches and a better offense, I could see that number shooting up. His team also has a great defense, and having a good team overall usually means more rushing work and less passing.

Last year, Darrell Henderson got 122.3 fantasy points, Malcolm Brown got 97.6, and Cam Akers got 96.3. Together, they averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game. Obviously, those aren’t all going to Cam Akers, but if Sean McVay uses Cam Akers as an every-down back and he takes another step in his development, he could be a beast for fantasy.

5. D’Andre Swift

Swift definitely showed the potential to be a great running back, but one of his biggest assets is his receiving work. The departure of Adrian Peterson shows that Swift may get more carries. However, the addition of Jamaal Williams, who is known for his receiving ability, leads me to wonder if Swift may lose targets. The QB downgrade doesn’t help with that either.

His after catch, after target, and broken tackle percentage are some of the lowest in the group. This leads me to be nervous about what will happen if defenses can focus more on stopping the run game as they may not have to worry about defending the passing game as much.

With the loss of Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, and Marvin Jones Jr., I’m not very confident in the offense. For someone who had relatively few carries, he had quite a lot of touchdowns. With the decline of the Lions offense, I don’t think Swift will have as much touchdown upside. However, Anthony Lynn is now the offensive coordinator in Detroit. With the way he used Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler, there is still a chance we can see Swift getting a role like that.

6. J.K. Dobbins

Whereas some might think Akers is too high in my rankings, I’m sure many will think Dobbins is too low. There’s one reason for that, and his name is Lamar Jackson. On paper, Dobbins might be the RB1 on one of the best rushing teams in the league, but in real life, Lamar is the RB1. Gus Edwards will get his touches too. This often means Dobbins will have a lot of efficient games with high per-game and per-carry stats, but I don’t see the volume being there for him to rise above. Mark Ingram is gone, which is why I have him above the next player I’ll be talking about, but I don’t imagine that bump pushes him above the guys I previously mentioned.

Another issue is that he’s also one of the weakest pass-catchers in the group. That’s something that hurts even more in 1/2 PPR and PPR leagues.

When it comes to skill, he may be one of the best runners in the group. Looking at the numbers, he is definitely the most efficient runner of the seven. His yards per attempt, broken tackle percentage, and yards after contact scream elite running back. But his team situation combined with limited pass-catching upside keeps him from rising in my rankings.

7. Clyde Edwards-Helaire

This dude went from being a first-round draft pick in many leagues last year to the bottom of this list. I’m not saying he’s a dud, but I think we saw what his ceiling could look like. He got a lot of carries and targets on the team with the most yards per game, yet still didn’t end up being a breakout star.

I don’t imagine him dropping out of the RB2 tier and he has a pretty safe floor, but he had the starting job on one of the best offenses and only averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game. I’m not saying he can’t be better, but I see his upside as the lowest of this group.

Wrap-Up

Remember, from two to seven, these rankings aren’t locked in. I’d have all of them in the same tier. I’d be happy to have any of them as my RB2. These are my rankings at the moment, but hopefully the information I gave you will help you decide who you would rather have in your lineup.

I am writing this before the NFL draft and there are still some free agents out there like Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, Le’Veon Bell, and James Conner. I don’t expect any of these top seven sophomores to lose their spot at the top of the depth chart, but they can still take a hit to their fantasy value if another capable RB joins their team.

If you found this article helpful, check out other Belly Up fantasy sports articles at Belly Up Fantasy Sports and you can follow me at @liuac.