The 2022 New England Patriots fantasy preview puts us in uncharted territory. We are a season removed from an impressive yet controlled year one from rookie quarterback Mac Jones. Even so, it feels as though the wheels are coming off. There has been a mass exodus of the coaching staff led by Josh McDaniels. What he left behind is a team who seemed to have taken steps forward with the signing of Devante Parker. One step forward and two steps back may be an understatement in New England’s case, though.

A lack of talent, for the first time in recent years, is not going to be the reason this offense will show just how far removed they are from the Tom Brady years. This team has a massive coaching issue, which is something I would never have thought would be the case under Bill Belichick. Some say Bill has lost a step, while others say Bill is just being stubborn to a way of coaching and team construction that is now obsolete. Whichever the true reason, there is cause for massive concern for any of these offensive weapons to be reliable fantasy producers.

Fantasy Playe…Pretenders

Tyquan Thornton – WR5 (R)

A draft pick that was widely criticized this offseason was starting to show some real promise. No one doubted the impact of the speed that Tyquan Thornton brought to the table, but every other aspect of the wide receiver position was questioned. What he has shown in camp has been progress and the ability to learn the offense and be explosive. Unfortunately, after suffering a broken collarbone and having surgery, he is slated to now miss 6-8 weeks. Thornton returns to fantasy irrelevance for now, but keep an eye on the state of this team at the midway point, as he could be a filler down the stretch.

All The Other Receivers – WR1-4 And 0 In Our Hearts

As I stated above, there is some talent on this offense. We all know what DeVante Parker is at this point in his career. He brings a “big” element to this offense that it desperately needed last year. Kendrick Bourne has shown that he can be an explosive number 2, and Jakobi Meyers can be a shifty YAC kind of guy. Nelson Agholor was supposed to be a big down-field threat but did not pan out last year. He has had an impressive camp to this point, though, and seems to have turned it around. Given the Thornton injury, it especially seems like Agholor has a role on this team.

Where things are going wrong with this group of receivers is the offense as a whole. The Patriots are installing a brand new “Shanahan” style offense that has been a disaster to this point of the offseason. The offensive line has especially struggled to grasp the new blocking schemes and language, leading to the receivers and Mac Jones being off on timing and opportunity. Couple with an emotional roller coaster from Kendrick Bourne; this group seems to have a very limited ceiling.

So Who Can Help?

If you are looking for a “safe floor” option in this offense as a WR3 on your team, DeVante Parker is going to offer that. He has shown a good connection with Mac Jones and has the best physical skill set. Nelson Agholor is going to offer you the best high-risk, high-reward value as a spot play. He will be dependent on big plays and could show up on best ball teams in a couple of weeks this year.

Damien Harris – RB1ish

Damien Harris was a nice surprise last year, with the Patriots riding him for the most part as an RB1. James White, now retired, getting hurt definitely played a role in that scenario. Either way, Harris answered the call. Coming in this year as the RB25 at the time of this article, I expect that to be even lower by season end. We are seeing a familiar situation from Bill Belichick with the running backs. Harris showed he can handle a lead role and be explosive, so naturally, Bill is going to shelf him for the next guy up because Bill does not pay running backs. You add that up with the offensive line woes, and I do not see a floor or ceiling for Damien Harris this next year. I am not drafting him in any format at this time.

Rhamondre Stevenson – RB2 And RB1….For Now

In my opinion, the technical RB2 on this offense will get the bulk of the work. He has spent most of the off-season running with the first-team offense and improving on his pass-catching ability. This skill set will get him on the field a lot more, given the James White retirement. Bill also loves versatile hard workers, and Rhamondre Stevenson fits that mold. He is a back that can run North to South and catch the ball out of the backfield. That is the type of player Mac is going to need in this offense, given the offensive line issues I mentioned before. I see Stevenson having a floor as an RB3 on your teams and a ceiling of RB2.

Hunter Henry – TE1

As the red zone target leader for this team last year for an offense that was ranked 6th in points scored, Hunter Henry has proven he is a safety blanket for Mac Jones. I do not see that changing, as the report between the two players has continued. The use of tight ends in the Shanahan-style offense also works well for Henry. We saw George Kittle and Austin Hooper both have some of their best seasons in this offense. If the Patriots can find a way to make this offense work, Henry may finally be able to hit the ceiling he was projected when entering the league. He is a great late draft value at the position, especially if you can pair him with Gerald Everett as a backup.

Mac Jones – QB1

Mac Jones has shown the promise of a long-tendered game manager. He has a place in this league for a long career. The question is whether he will be damaged this year and regress because of his coaching. The stage was set perfectly for him last year. He came into an offensive situation that was secure and stable under Josh McDaniels. He just had to come in, learn the plays, and create relationships with his team. Year two is usually the make-or-break year for rookie quarterbacks, though. Mac went from a perfect situation to the worst situation. In his second year, he now has to learn a new offense under multiple non-offensive coaches. That is right; you heard me correctly.

For those who do not know, this offense is currently being called by Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. It seems as though Patricia, the coach who said he was responsible for one of the greatest Super Bowl plays of all time, is now the main signal caller. Patricia often references the defensive play of Malcolm Butler intercepting Russell Wilson at the goal line to secure the championship. Patricia was the defensive coordinator for the Patriots at the time and proceeded to go on to completely implode in Detroit as a head coach. Somehow his ego is not only intact but larger than ever.

Who Should We Blame?

Mac Jones’s season as a fantasy-relevant quarterback hinges on the ability of Patricia to call an offense that has been “simplified” for his sake. Let’s be clear. Mac Jones is capable of running this offense. This is almost identical to the offense he ran in Alabama, and he has already proven his ability as a leader. This offense is being “dumbed down” for the sake of the coaching staff to be able to grasp it. In doing this, Mac Jones and the entire offense are having their knees cut out from under them, and their fantasy ceilings lowered to that of a house in The Shiar.

So Who Should I Play?

In short, I am not comfortable with any of these players on my fantasy teams. So far, there is a better value from other players at similar positions in these drafts that will provide more explosive upside potential. I started this offseason with a prediction for the Patriots of 9-8. I have since amended that to a prediction of 7-10 after what I have heard coming out of training camp and what I have seen in preseason. This offense is going to struggle mightily, and that is something, as a fan, I am hoping I am dead wrong about.

Bill Belichick and this coaching staff will determine if this team can produce fantasy-relevant players this season. If they can somehow turn things around or completely scrap the new offense and return to the old, everything changes. There are few more volatile offensive situations in the league right now than the Patriots, and that spells fantasy disaster. Draft with caution and prepare for the worst if you have to draft any of these guys. You will want a backup plan.

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