Thursday, November 21, 2024

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2022 NFL Trade Deadline Fantasy Analysis

The 2022 NFL trade deadline passed at 4 pm EST on Tuesday, and boy, was it a wild one.

One thing’s for sure- this ain’t your daddy’s NFL trade deadline. As opposed to years past, this year’s deadline started early and featured some fairly prominent names switching teams. What used to be a relatively quiet formality on the league calendar has recently become a bustling, high-paced news day. So, while the players traded are checking out what deals Jeff Goldblum has for them on apartments.com, we’ve got all the fantasy angles to the most important trades as fantasy managers work to make sense of the new landscape.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted.

Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers

It’s like an upgrade at three positions!

49ers receive: RB Christian McCaffrey

Panthers receive: 2023 second-, third-, and fourth-round picks, 2024 fourth-round pick

49ers analysis: The 2022 NFL trade deadline got off to an early start with this move. We’ve already watched it pay dividends for the 49ers. While it’s not as if the running game was exactly suffering after Elijah Mitchell‘s Week 1 knee injury, San Francisco nevertheless sent a king’s ransom to Carolina. In return, the ‘Niners now employ perhaps the two most versatile offensive weapons in the league in the person of WR Deebo Samuel and new RB McCaffrey. CMC led the 49ers in carries in his first game just hours after being acquired. Then, he promptly went out and put together the second-highest weekly total for a running back on the season. The San Francisco offense is instantly more explosive and harder to cover. Kyle Shanahan‘s job just got a lot more fun, and McCaffrey’s fantasy value skyrockets.

Meanwhile, Jeff Wilson Jr was temporarily relegated to not much more than a handcuff, but we’ll get to him in a moment. Mitchell is still expected to return this season, and the team still has Tyrion Davis-Price and Jordan Mason. Until Mitchell’s return, Davis-Price is the handcuff to own. Once Mitchell returns, he’ll be the primary number two. Although he may still have a role, his standalone value won’t be much barring a McCaffrey absence.

Panthers analysis: D’Onta Foreman gets the chance to show his performance as Derrick Henry‘s fill-in last season wasn’t a fluke. Chuba Hubbard (when healthy) should still have a role, but Foreman looks like a low-end RB2/FLEX play ROS. Hubbard is a bye-week fill-in FLEX for now. Look for McCaffrey’s targets to go “Moore” to the TE and WR than either RB.

James Robinson to the Jets

Jets receive: RB James Robinson

Jaguars receive: 2023 conditional sixth-round pick

Jets analysis: Robinson steps into the committee to replace Breece Hall, who was lost for the season with a knee injury. While Michael Carter is the more useful immediate fill-in, Robinson is clearly the better player and should eventually take over the lead role. For now, Carter has bye week FLEX value, as he’ll probably at least maintain a presence in the (admittedly anemic) Jets’ pass game. Robinson will usurp most of that value in time. The Jets’ Week 10 bye will provide a good opportunity to get Robinson fully integrated. Once that happens, he could return to RB2 status.

Jaguars analysis: Travis Etienne managers rejoiced upon this news. While he’d been trending up recently (culminating in a zero-touch game for Robinson in Week 7,) his value now rises to low-end RB1 ability. We saw that in Week 8, as Etienne put up a career-best 156 yards rushing and 25.2 fantasy points. JaMychal Hasty, rather than Snoop Conner, is the handcuff for now (if you’re so inclined.)

Kadarius Toney to the Chiefs

Chiefs receive: WR Kadarius Toney

Giants receive: 2023 third- and sixth-round picks

Chiefs analysis: Sure, why not? Kansas City is still searching for the definitive answer to who replaces Tyreek Hill. Toney now joins the pile of receivers to pick from. While JuJu Smith-Schuster has recently shown signs of life, Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have been their usual volatile selves. Skyy Moore is an afterthought thus far. Toney has shown remarkable athleticism in the brief moments he’s been healthy. He’s an exciting, intriguing prospect. But that’s it, for now. Consider JuJu still the top wideout option week-in and week-out, although no one will supplant Travis Kelce as the true top target for Patrick Mahomes. Hardman and MVS will still be high-upside dart throws in any given week. Toney joins Moore as better Dynasty stashes than immediate contributors on your fantasy rosters. In Re-draft, you can probably shuttle him between your active bench and IR slots ROS if you’re WR-needy.

Giants analysis: That New York saw fit to move on from Toney despite the absolute wasteland that is their receiver room should be somewhat telling. They receive a useful package for a player who hadn’t seen the field much and whom they’d already essentially replaced by drafting Wan’Dale Robinson. Both sides get a fresh start. Robinson has an opportunity to take control of the Giants’ number one receiver role. Darius Slayton will have something to say about that, but the Daniel Bellinger injury opens up targets underneath for Robinson in the slot. Slayton’s value is more of a deep-threat. Neither is more than a low-floor bye week fill-in for now.

T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings

An intra-division trade put a charge into Deadline Day.

Vikings receive: TE T.J. Hockenson, 2023 fourth-round pick, conditional 2024 fourth-round pick

Lions receive: 2023 second-round pick, 2024 third-round pick

Vikings analysis: Irv Smith injured his ankle in Week 8 and is headed to IR. Hockenson gives the Vikings an explosive talent to replace him as starter. Hockenson (TE4) currently has an average yards per target of 15.2, best among the top-30 scoring fantasy tight ends. If he can maintain anything close to that, the Vikings’ pass game may be nigh-unstoppable. The threat of Hockenson, Justin Jefferson, and K.J. Osborn deep should guarantee open space for Adam Thielen and the running backs underneath. Hockenson is also a capable blocker, important with Ben Ellefson still on IR. Hockenson remains a top-12, starting fantasy tight end who could residually help the Vikings’ fantasy prospects elsewhere by adding a new dimension to the offense.

Lions analysis: It’s obviously all about building for the future for the Lions. They now move forward with Brock Wright and rookie James Mitchell at tight end. The Lions will have a ton of young pass catching options available once their wide receivers are all healthy. But you’d like to see at least some threat at tight end. Wright and Mitchell are at least young, but Wright is an UDFA with 23 career targets. Mitchell caught his first career pass in Week 8. Both can be ignored in virtually all fantasy formats for now. Detroit will need someone to step up and take Hockenson’s vacated redzone targets, or Jared Goff‘s fantasy value could take a hit as well.

Chase Claypool to the Bears

Bears receive: WR Chase Claypool

Steelers receive: 2023 second-round pick

Bears analysis: Justin Fields gets a shiny, new, 6’4″ toy to play with in the redzone and Darnell Mooney gets to see single coverage occasionally. This is a net-positive for the entire Bears’ offense in my opinion, as Claypool should keep defenses from concentrating on Mooney and open things up for Kmet in the redzone. Fields has been trending up, and now has three fairly young and talented top targets. Claypool’s fantasy value probably doesn’t rise beyond what it has been, a volatile WR3/4, albeit with explosive upside. The value gain here is in the effect he can have on everyone around him. Fields is probably a locked-in top-12 quarterback option ROS- not something I ever envisioned myself writing a few weeks ago.

Steelers analysis: George Pickens‘s days of going catchless on three targets are likely over. Pickens will step up into the unquestioned number two role and sees his fantasy value increase in spite of the limitations of the Steelers’ growing pains behind this season’s quarterback transition. Diontae Johnson remains a WR2/3 option, while Pickens is probably a solid WR4. One underrated ripple from this move is the chance that Najee Harris finally sees more targets. Harris’s targets from last season have been effectively cut in half, and nominal third wideout Steven Sims excites no one. TE Pat Freiermuth could see an uptick in redzone looks as well.

Calvin Ridley to the Jaguars

Jaguars get: WR Calvin Ridley (suspended for 2022 season)

Falcons get: 2023 sixth-round pick if Ridley is not reinstated by the league. If Ridley IS reinstated, that pick rises to a fifth-round pick, and triggers a 2024 conditional fourth-round pick that could rise to a third- or second-round pick.

Jaguars analysis: While this move obviously does nothing for the Jaguars or fantasy managers this season, it does potentially give them a top wide receiver option to pair with Christian Kirk in the future. Ridley was the overall WR5 in fantasy in 2020 before his lost 2021-22 seasons. If Ridley is reinstated and can return to form, this could be a huge boost for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense. A low-risk, high-reward move. Although Ridley is still worth hanging onto in Dynasty, this bit of news may be able to convince someone in your league to deal for him. If you’re in a rebuild and can get a second- or third-rounder for him, jump on it.

Falcons analysis: Likewise, nothing really changes for the Falcons in the short-term. Ridley wasn’t playing this season and was likely done in Atlanta in any case. What it does mean is Drake London and Kyle Pitts will remain the unquestioned top two options in the Falcons’ pass game (barring the unforeseen in the offseason, of course.) Whether it will be Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, or someone else throwing to them remains to be seen. The Falcons will be rooting for Ridley, though, as the compensation for them increases dramatically if he can return to even semi-star status.

Nyheim Hines to the Bills

Bills get: RB/WR Nyheim Hines

Colts get: RB Zack Moss, conditional 2023 sixth-round pick

Bills analysis: The rich get richer, as Buffalo adds one of the premier pass-catching backs in the league for relatively little in return. Moss had obviously fallen out of favor and was not in the Bills’ short- or long-term plans. Hines allows them time to develop James Cook this season and provides even more potency for their pass attack. Devin Singletary likely sees a downturn in his target share in favor of the third down specialist Hines. Singletary’s value thus takes a hit, pushing him more into FLEX consideration than an every-week RB2. Touchdown-dependent TE Dawson Knox may see even fewer targets, especially in the redzone.

Colts analysis: Jonathan Taylor is, was, and will be the dominant force in this backfield. That doesn’t change. But could this mean more receiving work for him? Despite catching six targets in Week 1, Moss is nothing special as a receiving threat. His failure to grasp the starting role in Buffalo despite numerous opportunities indicates he’s no threat to Deon Jackson, either. Moss can still be safely ignored in most formats, while Jackson remains an intriguing handcuff option given his performance in Weeks 5-6.

Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins

It’s not often a defensive player is the centerpiece in a fantasy-relevant trade.

Dolphins get: LB Bradley Chubb, 2025 fifth-round pick

Broncos get: RB Chase Edmonds, 2023 first-round pick (via San Francisco), 2024 fourth-round pick

Dolphins analysis: After perhaps the biggest blockbuster of the 2022 NFL trade deadline, Miami’s anemic pass rush gets a major shot in the arm. Chubb has 5.5 sacks on the season (tied for 12th in the league,) and is 14th in sack yardage. He immediately upgrades the team’s prospects in a key late-season run of games against Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, and Aaron Rodgers. The more pressing fantasy issue is the trade of Edmonds. The Dolphins’ starting back in Week 1 had ceded almost all touches of value to Raheem Mostert. Edmonds’s absence opened the door for the Dolphins to bring in Jeff Wilson JR. (more on him in a moment.)

Broncos analysis: This trade undoubtedly weakens what has heretofore been the Broncos’ strength this season. The league’s top defense (in terms of expected points added) remains a top fantasy option for now, but the loss of Chubb will hurt, even as the team brought in DE Jacob Martin in a separate deal with the Jets. Edmonds, meanwhile, adds a third head to the monster that is Denver’s backfield-by-committee. While it remains to be seen how the Broncos will distribute the touches, Edmonds should at the least siphon receiving targets from Melvin Gordon. In fact, Gordon may be the favorite to wind up as odd-man-out after already losing touches to recent addition Latavius Murray. This is a situation to avoid if at all possible, as none of the three likely warrants more than low FLEX consideration for now.

Jeff Wilson Jr. to the Dolphins

Dolphins get: RB Jeff Wilson Jr.

49ers get: 2023 fifth-round pick

Dolphins analysis: Head Coach Mike McDaniel is reunited with another former running back from his time with the 49ers. Wilson joins Raheem Mostert as the new option following the departure of Chase Edmonds in the Bradley Chubb trade. The 49ers’ deal for Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell‘s expected return made Wilson expendable. Wilson has been serviceable in short stints as a starter in San Francisco and provides arguably more upside than Edmonds as an insurance policy for Mostert or as half of an RBBC. As in Denver, we’ll have to wait and see how the usage shakes out, but this is a much better situation regardless. I expect Mostert to remain the primary back if healthy, with Wilson returning possible league-winning or season-saving upside in the case of a Mostert injury.

49ers analysis: As noted above, McCaffrey and Samuel have the monopoly on backfield usage for San Francisco. This move allows them to recoup at least a sliver of the massive amounts of draft capital they’ve spent in the past two seasons. Again, Tyrion Davis-Price is the CMC ‘cuff at least until the return of Mitchell.

2022 NFL Trade Deadline Notable Non-moves

On the list of teams considered candidates to acquire offensive help, but instead decided to stand pat: Green Bay (is anyone truly shocked, though?), the Los Angeles Rams, Dallas, and the Baltimore Ravens. Players widely expected/rumored to be on the move but staying put include Elijah Moore, Denzel Mims, Kareem Hunt, Cam Akers, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Brandin Cooks, who made some headlines in the minutes immediately following the deadline:

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