The 2023 MLB season is just around the corner with pitchers and catchers having just reported to their organizations on February 13th. Fantasy commissioners and owners are starting to draft their squads, so while you scour the internet looking for an edge over your buddies, I have a fantasy baseball sleeper that has the potential to prove their worth in a 2023 breakout to help you win another league title. I am highlighting one of my favorite sleeper picks for this upcoming season, the 26-year-old outfielder Bryan De La Cruz of the Miami Marlins.

How His Career Has Started

2021

In 2021, we saw Bryan De La Cruz get his chance late in the last two and a half months of the season after the Astros dealt him at the deadline for Yimi Garcia. He came out scorching hot in August, batting .384 with a .925 OPS and slightly mellowed out across the rest of the season to finish with a promising .296 average and .783 OPS in his first 200 at-bats of his career. It was a good start for De La Cruz, but he still had a lot to prove.

2022

In 2022, De La Cruz came out firing yet again to start a shortened April due to the lockdown, which led to a .313 average and .976 OPS through 14 games where he mixed in as a starter and a pinch hitter. As he got more opportunities at the starting job from May to August, De La Cruz showed us that sophomore slumps do indeed happen. He batted just .197 over that time. It was a rough patch, and it led to the Marlins’ decision to option De La Cruz back down to Triple-A to hopefully get him back on track. Fortunately for the Marlins, that is exactly what he needed.

When De La Cruz was called back up at the start of September, he was coming off of a .320/.370/.620 slash line over 54 plate appearances in Triple-A and was able to keep up that success, and even add more during the rest of the season, becoming one of the hottest hitters in the MLB before the season came to a close. De La Cruz finished out the last month and a half of the season with a phenomenal .388 average, with a .429 average in October. Together, those back two months saved De La Cruz’s season, allowing him to finish with a .252/.294/.432 slash line with 20 doubles, 13 home runs, and a strike-out percentage below 26 percent across 348 plate appearances.

Why I Am So Optimistic

I believe that De La Cruz will be a great fantasy baseball sleeper if he can bring his past successes into a consistent 2023. If we look at the changes he made statistically last year, we see a lot of signs that show he could make a real name for himself this season if he plays through an entire season.

Barrel Percentage

The first change, that was too big not to notice, was his increase in barrel percentage. From 2021 to 2022, his barrel percentage went up 6.5 percent, from 5.4 to 11.9 percent. Although De La Cruz couldn’t qualify to make this list, the only other player that had a higher year-to-year change in barrel percentage last year according to BaseballSavant… 2022 AL MVP Aaron Judge.

De La Cruz was good for the 84th percentile of the entire MLB, placing above guys like 2022 NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, and multiple-time All-Stars Rafael Devers and Carlos Correa. What barrel percentage shows us, is that he can hammer line drives. Barrels are counted when a player hits a ball with a minimum of 98 mile-per-hour exit velocity, with a launch angle that varies from 26 to 30 degrees. At the 84th percentile, De La Cruz does it at a rate that can wreak havoc throughout an entire season.

Expected Batting Average

The second most notable change was his expected batting average (XBA). XBA is a great statistic to consider when comparing players because it does a great job of showing a hitter’s ability. It calculates how often a type of ball that was hit, based on exit velocities and launch angles, would get a hit regardless of the defense and positioning on the field. This stat shows us if a player has been getting lucky or unlucky over the year based on the defense and positioning the opponent played against them that night. What we saw from De La Cruz was a jump from a .254 XBA in 2021 when he batted .296, to a .287 XBA in 2022 when he batted just .252.

We knew he struggled for a while last year, but maybe it wasn’t all his fault. His 2022 XBA was good for the 96th percentile in the league, putting him above some of the best pure hitters in our game currently in Jeff McNeil, Bo Bichette, and yet again Rafael Devers.

Expected Weighted On Base Average

The final stat I want to provide you with, that De La Cruz dramatically changed this year, was his expected weighted on-base average (XWOBA). What makes XWOBA valuable to understand, is that it has similar principles to XBA, but ties together intentional walks, base on balls, and strikeouts, giving you the best idea of a player’s ability to hit the ball well and get on base.

De La Cruz finished the 2022 season with a .355 XWOBA, which was .051 higher than his last year’s total at .301. This gives him a well above average XWOBA (League Average is around .320) putting him in the 90th percentile. The three names below him in terms of XWOBA last year… Pete Alonso, Jose Altuve, and Kyle Tucker. All of which were All-Stars.

Why There Is Risk

Inconsistency

I do want to mention, although a lot of De La Cruz’s numbers suggest the crazy potential for this upcoming season, there are a few things that contribute to his presence as a fantasy baseball sleeper right now. To start, De La Cruz hasn’t seemed to be able to get hot for more than three months in his first two years in the league, and he has had times of inconsistency that have lasted longer than his scorching hot times. He also has had trouble with pitches that move horizontally, as he didn’t post an XBA above .246 for sliders or curveballs in his career while crushing fastballs, sinkers, and change-ups.

Bigger Sample Sizes on Weaknesses

De La Cruz does not have outstanding strikeout or walk percentages, being below the 23rd percentile in each. We would have to hope that pitchers don’t plan on attacking Cruz with breaking stuff outside the zone more consistently than they have in the past. If pitchers attack his weaknesses from the jump, his numbers could trend in the wrong direction to start 2023. There will have to be some patience with him, which would give him more value in dynasty formats, but regardless you shouldn’t be expecting De La Cruz to start the season as one of the best hitters in the league.

Don’t Sleep on De La Cruz

Now, with both the good and bad uncovered, you can understand why Bryan De La Cruz is one of if not my favorite fantasy baseball sleepers for 2023. From what we have seen in his best moments, a consistent 2023 could be his breakout. I would not be surprised to see him batting above .260 this season, and if he can stay on the field all year, I think 25 home runs are not out of question.

He plays with fire and reminds me too much of Byron Buxton, an athletic outfielder with a similar swing that can produce as much power. According to FantasyPros’ 2023 average draft position list for redraft leagues as of February 12th, 2023, De La Cruz is going past the 250th pick in drafts but is on the rise. So if you are in the right position to reach for an outfielder this year, do not look past Bryan De La Cruz.

As the MLB regular season continues to get closer and closer I will be putting out more sleeper picks that can help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Make sure to check out other articles on BellyUpFantasy, or check out our main page BellyUpSports. Also give us a follow on our BellyUpSports and BellyUpFantasy Twitter, as well as my own!