Before anyone questions my inclusion of Jose Abreu in the “value” category, let me say one thing. I know that Abreu is a top-85 selection in almost every draft. And I know he’s not the typical mid-to-late round “value” type. But value exists everywhere in the draft, so I’m gonna bite anyways. Abreu to the Astros has the makings of a major success. This is the same great hitter we’re used to; in an absolutely loaded lineup, in a better ballpark, playing for a brilliant franchise by player development standards. What could go wrong? Let’s take a deep dive.

The Dude Can (Still) Hit

Jose Abreu was ready to rake as soon as he made his 2014 debut. Through nine phenomenal MLB seasons, Abreu’s career OPS and OPS+ sit at .860 and 134, respectively. He’s averaged just under 30 HRs and 100 RBI per season and even took home MVP honors in his age-33 campaign (2020). He doesn’t always get the credit he deserves, but I’d say we’re all pretty familiar with how great he’s been.

In 2022 at age 35, Abreu posted a .304/.378/.446 slash line, good for a .824 OPS and 133 OPS+. Those numbers were 24th and 22nd in all of baseball, respectively. He had the second most hits of any season in his career (183), and his best OBP since his rookie season. His .361 wOBA was also top-30 in all of baseball, and his xwOBA was actually even higher at .373.

While there was a definite dip in power (more on that soon), he easily made up for that in other facets of his game. Specifically, Abreu posted the lowest K rate of his career at 16.2 percent and paired it with his second-highest career walk rate of 9.1 percent. The .564 BB/K was his highest ever, by over 100 points. What he may have lacked in power he made up for by grinding out at-bats, being patient, and accepting easy walks and singles as valuable outcomes. Abreu racked up base hits and in the process saw more pitches per plate appearance (4.02) than in any year of his career. The takeaway is this: Abreu was a slightly different hitter than we’ve become used to, but he was still great.

Cause For Concern?

There are two real concerns for Abreu heading into 2023 and most fantasy players are well aware of them. The first is Abreu’s age, as he’ll be 36 years old heading into the 2023 campaign. Obviously, there isn’t anything I can say here to mitigate this. He’s pretty old. The average age for position players last season was about 28, and although hitters tend to get more out of their later years than pitchers, 36 is a scary number. We’ve seen many players have success into their mid-30s in recent seasons though. All of them seem to have elite bat-to-ball skills (think Votto, Goldschmidt, Cruz), and Abreu has this ability. A major drop-off after what he did the last few seasons would be precipitous and rather shocking.

The second concern with Abreu was his power. In 679 plate appearances, Abreu had 15 home runs, about half of what we’d typically expect in a full season. His slugging percentage of .446 was also his lowest in all nine seasons. 40 doubles is nothing to scoff at, but in most fantasy formats, we’re gonna want to see home runs.

What was most notable though was the 8.0 average launch angle Abreu accrued. Not only was this by far the lowest of his career, but it also ranked 215th out of 252 qualified hitters. He also posted a bottom-15th percentile fly ball rate and a career-worst 11.6 percent HR/FB ratio, well below league average. While this may have been the result of a difference in his approach, the truth remains that Abreu did not effectively elevate the ball. This was the most notable explanation for his lack of home run production. People may also point out his relatively low 9.5 percent barrel rate, but “barrels” take into account launch angle, which again, is what this really boils down to. So why am I not worried at all?

Why I’m So Optimistic

In addition to being an elite contact hitter last season, Abreu did something else at an elite level: he hit the ball hard. Abreu’s 51.8 HardHit percentage ranked eighth in all of baseball last season, and his 92.2 average exit velocity ranked 14th. Both of these numbers, in addition to being incredible, are second-best in Abreu’s career. Improving launch angles is an addressable issue, especially for a competent hitter in a competent franchise. Not hitting the ball hard is far tougher to address, and is usually a sign of age-related decline. Luckily, Abreu still hits the ball as hard as almost anyone in baseball.

A missing piece to Abreu’s home run hitting last season was undoubtedly the launch angle component. But could there have also been a little bad luck as well? Abreu’s xSLG this season was .486, firmly in the top 20 of all hitters. It was also over 40 points higher than his actual slugging percentage, which marks the 25th-highest disparity between SLG and xSLG in all of baseball. On top of that, Abreu’s home run total of 15 last season was three shy of his xHR total of 18, and when adjusted for Minute Maid Park, 18 becomes 22. It’s obviously not this simple, but I found this interesting given Minute Maid’s reputation as a hitter’s park. The Crawford Boxes could suit Abreu rather well. Guaranteed Rate Field did him no favors.

But one other thing that really stood out to me: Abreu had by far the worst year of his career in terms of hitting four-seamers (-9 RV, .404 slg, .336 wOBA). While this might raise concerns for some fantasy players, I’m gonna go the other way. I wouldn’t bet on Abreu struggling with one of his favorite pitches again. This feels more like an area for easy improvement than it does a problem. Especially for such a talented hitter who fared well against all other pitch types.

Lastly, I can’t spend time talking about Jose Abreu without mentioning the lineup he’ll be surrounded by in Houston. The Astros team OPS was almost 50 points higher than the White Sox last season, and they tallied about 50 more runs total. Abreu will have the likes of Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, and others in his lineup. This is absolutely a top-three offensive unit in all of baseball, while the White Sox on the other hand hovered slightly below league average in 2022.

While the surrounding lineup won’t necessarily impact home runs, it’ll add some well-needed protection, and it’ll surely add insurance to Abreu’s overall value. He had a mere 75 RBI last season with the White Sox, and I think that number getting back up near 90+ is absolutely in the cards. I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see him score more runs, either. Improvement in those two categories feels like simple cherry-picking.

2023 Outlook and Value

Anytime I review a player in-depth when looking at value, I always like to reduce it to a gamble. Nothing is ever a guarantee, especially when we’re talking about value, so there will always be a gamble. Whether big or small. So what can we boil that down to with Jose Abreu? He was so good in almost every facet of hitting that at this point, we’re really just gambling on him to elevate the ball more and to have better outcomes against four-seamers. The age question mark will loom. But for such a talented hitter with an elite eye and plate approach, regression would be slow if anything. A much better surrounding situation (lineup, park, franchise) should automatically add to both his floor and his ceiling and mitigate most concerns. What we really want to see though is 25 home runs, and that feels attainable.

It’s still hard to gauge ADPs and rankings at this point. But from what I’ve gathered, Abreu has (roughly) an ADP in the ~80 range, across various sites and formats. My opinion? I think Abreu finishes the year as a top-30 hitter. A potentially sizable bump in HRs, RBI, and runs feels like a guarantee. Abreu was still elite last year, he was just elite in a different way. I expect this year to look even better, at least from a fantasy baseball perspective. It’s not like he was even far off from being a top-30 guy last year.

First base, usually one of the strongest positions in fantasy baseball, doesn’t have as many guarantees in 2023. There’s a consensus top five at 1B (Freeman, Guerrero, Alonso, Goldy, Olson) and in my opinion, Jose Abreu is sixth, at least. For anyone who doesn’t want to spend a high pick on one of those first five, Abreu is absolutely your guy. You can get him at a relative discount, and he’s way closer to the top five first basemen than he is to the seventh (Vinnie P).

So while the lines that constitute “value” get thinner and thinner in the earlier rounds of the draft, there is plenty to be gained from taking Jose Abreu at or above his ADP. The added floor of being an Astro also makes him a rather stable asset. Like many, I’ll absolutely be buying on Abreu. But at his current price, I’ll be more than happy to take him a couple of rounds sooner.

Lastly

We’re rolling out quite a bit of new fantasy baseball content as draft season approaches. I’ll have the rest of my series coming out shortly. But in the meantime, check out my last piece looking at another SP, Edward Cabrera. Make sure to check out the rest of our fantasy sports and fantasy baseball content here. And feel free to give me a Twitter follow as well!