Sunday, December 22, 2024

Fantasy Football, Featured

2023 NFC North Pre-Draft Fantasy Needs

While fans in Green Bay may be completely focused on the pending trade of Aaron Rodgers, fans in the rest of the league are more concerned with the next big event on the NFL offseason calendar. The NFL Draft will take place at the end of April. Between now and then, we’re looking at the needs for the teams from each division from a fantasy football perspective. What does each team need to do to maximize their roster’s fantasy returns? What moves will elicit a collective cheer from fantasy managers across the land? We continue our league tour previewing the 2023 NFC North.

2023 Pre-Draft Fantasy Needs Series

Note: All 2022 fantasy point totals and rankings are PPR, unless otherwise noted.

2023 NFC North Draft Needs: Minnesota Vikings

Are reinforcements on the way for the Vikings’ star pass-catching duo? Perhaps the pass thrower of the future?

The Minnesota Vikings were a bit of a mixed-bag in 2022. On the one hand, they ran away with the NFC North, finishing four games clear of Detroit and garnering the three seed in the conference. On the other, they somehow finished 13-4 despite a point differential of negative three.

Nine games over .500.

Somehow allowed more points than they scored on the season.

As Herm Edwards said, “You play. To win. The game.” So at least by that measure, the Vikings had a successful regular season. And fantasy managers with Vikings on their rosters by and large got what they wanted from them as well. Kirk Cousins had his usual quiet top-12 season at QB, finishing as the overall QB8 in total points. Dalvin Cook failed to fully meet the expectations of his RB6 first-round ADP, but still finished as RB11 overall. Justin Jefferson was the WR1 on the season, finishing behind only Austin Ekeler in points per game among non-quarterbacks who played the full season. And Minnesota traded for eventual TE2 overall T.J. Hockenson, who looked every bit the franchise building block we’d been waiting to see once he crossed the St. Croix River.

On the other hand, the Vikings would go on to lose their only playoff game at home to Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. Cook had the least efficient year of his career, with a career low in yards per carry and his second-lowest fantasy points per game tally (14) ever. Franchise stalwart Adam Thielen likewise had the least efficient fantasy season of his career. Thielen had career lows in yards per target and yards per reception, and scored his fewest points per game since becoming a starter. And while Jefferson’s owners largely had him to thank if they made their fantasy championship games, he completely disappeared in Week 17. The 2.5 score was the worst single-game fantasy output of Jefferson’s stellar young career.

Vikings’ Bottom Line

While the Vikings’ 26th-ranked fantasy DST was mostly to blame for the team’s 2022 struggles, changes are coming to both sides of the ball in Minnesota. Alexander Mattison signed a contract that has led to speculation on Dalvin Cook‘s future in purple. The Vikings cut Thielen, clearing the way for him to sign with the Carolina Panthers. While this tentatively opens the door for K.J. Osborn to take over as Jefferson’s main running mate at receiver, the lackluster state of the rest of the Vikings’ receiver room makes this a prime area of need heading into the draft. Kirk Cousins appears to be nearing the end of his tenure as a Viking, which has many wondering if the Vikings could be in the market for his successor sooner than later. And of course, the defense is in a state of flux under new coordinator Brian Flores.

The Vikings need to add on the defense. They’ve been largely linked to cornerbacks in mock drafts. They don’t have a ton of draft capital, with just five picks at the moment and no second rounder. If they do go defense in round one, they’ll likely miss out on any of the top quarterback prospects. Even if they did pull the trigger on, say, a Hendon Hooker at 24th overall, he’s not realistically playing this year barring injury. A Viking quarterback draft pick is at best a dynasty stash this season. But if they were to zig where we expect them to zag and take an early wideout, it could be a boon to both Cousins and Jefferson’s value.

Vikings’ 2023 Draft Picks

  • Round 1, pick 24
  • Round 3, pick 24
  • Round 4, pick 17
  • Round 5, pick 24
  • Round 6, pick 34

2023 NFC North Draft Needs: Detroit Lions

Dan Campbell freakin’ loves Jared Goff as the Lions’ quarterback, man. Now, to get him someone to throw to…

America (well, at least a very specific subset of America) fell in love with the Detroit Lions on Hard Knocks last season. Really, it was a perfect storm. A long-suffering franchise. A goofy, everyman head coach (who’s also a former player.) Assistant coaches with actual personalities. And a cast of characters on the roster with compelling personal stories (Craig Reynolds, Amon-Ra St. Brown) and charisma (Malcolm Rodriguez, Jamaal Williams.) With more of America cheering them on than usual, the Lions delivered their first winning season since 2017.

There was a lot to love fantasy-wise as well. Jared Goff had his best fantasy season since 2017 and finished as QB10. Jamaal Williams was a Redzone revelation, leading the league in rushing scores. St. Brown proved his end-of-year run in 2021 was no fluke. T.J. Hockenson was a high-end tight end until he was traded. Then he was… high-ender? Higher-end? High-and-tight? Whatever. He was a Viking. Even kicker Michael Badgley was an elite fantasy option from Week 10 onwards.

Lions’ Bottom Line

Much like the team they’re chasing in the NFC North, the Lions at least have to consider looking to the future at quarterback. While Jared Goff had something of a resurgence last season, he’s not a rookie. The Lions are an ascendant team with an intriguing young nucleus that will be even more intriguing after a pair of first round picks this month. Resetting the cap hit at quarterback would put them squarely in contention mode for the next four or five seasons, with the cap flexibility to attack weak spots on the roster in free agency. Continuing to throw a $30M cap hit at Goff seems like an unnecessarily heavy expenditure.

The other place the Lions could help themselves (and fantasy managers) would be in the pass catching department. While a third young stud wideout would look nice with St. Brown and Jameson Williams, the larger need (literally and figuratively) is at tight end. After trading Hockenson to Minnesota, Detroit used an entire battalion of second- and third-string options at the position. James Mitchell, Shane Zylstra, and Brock Wright are all fine real-life players and I’m sure their mothers love them. But 2023 NFC North defensive coordinators won’t be game-planning around any of them. In a deep draft for the position, the Lions could secure a playmaking tight end to really unlock the offense, as opposed to the squadron of tackle-eligibles they ran out there last season.

Lions’ 2023 Draft Picks

  • Round 1, picks 6 & 18
  • Round 2, picks 17 & 24
  • Round 3, pick 18
  • Round 5, pick 18
  • Round 6, picks 6 & 17

2023 NFC North Draft Needs: Green Bay Packers

Will the Packers show their new leader some “Love” in the draft?

Aaron Rodgers emerged from his darkness retreat ready to play the foosball. According to him, the Packers didn’t care. And so the football world waits for Brian Gutekunst and Joe Douglas to come to an understanding, so that Rodgers can go from the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to the football wasteland of the Jets’ half of MetLife Stadium. In his wake, Jordan Love will now attempt to take up the mantle of quarterback of the Green Bay Packers. Heavy is the head that wears the crown, especially when that crown is a yellow Packer helmet with the radio transmitter sticker. There’s a Super Bowl-winning, Hall of Fame legacy to uphold here. It remains to be seen whether the Packers’ faith in Love is warranted.

But it does appear to be the right time to move on from Rodgers (if there’s ever a right time to move on from a Hall of Fame quarterback.) Fantasy-wise, 2022 was Rodgers’ least efficient season since taking over as starter in 2008. His 14.1 PPG were over three points less than his previous career low. His mark of 1.53 touchdown passes per game was likewise the worst-such mark of his starting career. Rodgers and his supporters would likely point to the state of the Packers’ receiving corps as a major contributor (or lack thereof, as it were) to that stat line.

Packers’ Bottom Line

Rumors abound as to what the Packers are expecting from the Jets in return for Rodgers. It seems clear that there will be at least some sort of 2023 draft compensation heading to Green Bay, but just what remains to be seen. The value of that compensation will necessarily affect how Gutekunst operates in the draft.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one, but the Packers could stand to draft a wide receiver. While it may seem like the ultimate kick in Rodgers’s shins on his way out the door, the possibility of a first round receiver can’t be dismissed. At pick 15 overall, it’s possible the Packers could have their choice of the top wideout prospects. A wide receiver at 15 would be the first Packer wideout in the opening round since Javon Walker in 2002, and their highest at the position since taking Sterling Sharpe fourth overall in 1988. NFL.com draft guru Daniel Jeremiah has USC wideout Jordan Addison as his highest-ranked at the position at number 13 overall in his latest pre-draft rankings. Addison’s ability to line up in the slot could give Love a trio of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Addison to grow with as he assumes the starting role.

Tight end is also an apparent need after the losses of Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis. Josiah Deguara has been a favorite target of Love in their limited time on the field together. But with assumed extra Day Two draft ammunition, the Packers could take advantage of the deep tight end field and get yet another young running mate for Love. Oregon State prospect Luke Musgrave is one name who might still be available when the Packers come up in the middle of the second round.

Packers’ 2023 Draft Picks (for now…)

  • Round 1, pick 15
  • Round 2, pick 14
  • Round 3, pick 15
  • Round 4, pick 14
  • Round 5, picks 15 & 36
  • Round 7, picks 15, 18, 25, & 39

2023 NFC North Draft Needs: Chicago Bears

The Bears’ skill position players will be dancing if GM Ryan Poles can find them some help up front in the draft.

Chicago is (once again) coming off a disappointing season. Unlike previous iterations of the Bears, however, the club appears to have a plan. And Ryan Poles has wasted no time in executing that plan. Trading the top overall pick to the Panthers allowed Poles to add to his draft day war chest both now and in the future, while simultaneously supplying rising fantasy star Justin Fields with a number one receiver in the person of D.J. Moore. Speaking of Panthers and Bears, Poles also signed former Panthers starting running back D’Onta Foreman to help fill the hole left by David Montgomery‘s departure. Former Packer Robert Tonyan upgrades the tight end depth chart behind 2022 TE8 Cole Kmet. And a bevy of defensive signings should go a long way toward improving on the Bears’ woeful DST unit (DST32 in fantasy, worst in the NFL in points allowed.)

Bears’ Bottom Line

The Bears have done a nice job (so weird to say that…) in filling holes this offseason. Their offensive skill position core players are all fairly young, and appear set at the top of the depth chart. The major remaining needs, then, for the Monsters of the Midway are on defense and along the offensive line. A skilled pass rusher would go a long way to improving the problems on the defense. But the Bears should really consider using the number nine pick on an offensive lineman.

Signing Nate Davis likely puts Teven Jenkins at either left guard or right tackle, which is somewhat unfortunate after Jenkins looked really solid at right guard in 2022. But Chicago could use upgrades at center and whichever position Jenkins doesn’t fill. The Bears have been widely linked to Northwestern tackle prospect Peter Skoronski with their first round pick. Someone like Wisconsin’s Joe Tippmann or Minnesota’s John Michael Schmitz would be an absolute homerun if either were available for Chicago in round two. Keeping Fields upright and healthy must be “Job One” on Sundays. If the Bears can execute in the draft the way they’ve operated thus far in the offseason, “Job One” could be a job won.

Bears’ 2023 Draft Picks

  • Round 1, pick 9
  • Round 2, picks 22 & 30
  • Round 3, pick 1
  • Round 4, picks 1 & 31
  • Round 5, picks 1 & 14
  • Round 7, picks 1 & 41

It’s Always Fantasy Season

There is no offseason in fantasy! Draft previews, free agency analysis, and Dynasty strategy are just some of what you’ll find when you check Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy football analysis and entertaining insight. With the MLB season in full-swing, there’s a ton of fantasy baseball content, too. As always, more great NFL coverage is available on the main Belly Up site, as well as fun, informative content on the Belly Up Podcast Network. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast each week.