Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

49ers Projections: Kittle is good

San Fran, Super Bowl attendees. Second place is pretty good, but we all know how tough it can be to come so close. So let’s see if they can do it again. In case you missed it, we just covered the Arizona Cardinals. Now, we will cross the Golden Gate, mine for gold, and how can a team have numbers for a name? It’s kinda weird, right? The 49ers are better than the San Francisco Football Team though…

QB:

Smile Jimmy, you are on an incredibly talented team, and seemed rather unimpressive to me in 2019, so enjoy while it lasts. He does have excellent teeth…

Jimmy Garoppolo: Passing: 337/488-3,994 Yds, 23 TD: 12 INT
Rushing: 41-58, 10 FMBL
Standard: 235.56 (27)
0.5 PPR: 235.56 (27)
1 PPR: 235.56 (27)

Nick Mullens: Passing: Notes to C.J. Beathard during QB meetings, teasing him about winning the 49ers QB2 gig.
Rushing: to tell coaches Beathard keeps trying to break his forearm when they aren’t looking.

Seems like a dangerous 49ers QB room to me. Who knows what Jimmy is doing in there anyway, probably looking at himself in a mirror. Regardless, I can assure you that I won’t be looking at Jimmy in any of my lineups. I feel he lacks real upside. He could be a solid QB3 and trade bait for you in every format, but I have no exposure because I value him less than virtually everyone I draft with. He isn’t terrible, but every time I watched him in 2019, I found myself wondering if the 49ers might need to address QB in 2020. They did not, but 2021 is right around the corner, and don’t be shocked if they address it then.

By addressing it, I mean neither of the two QBs currently on the roster can address anything but letters to their 12 combined fans.

RB:

Mostert went crazy late last year. I mean, who spikes the ball like that?! He looks like hes doing a yoga pose.

Raheem Mostert: Rushing: 179-971-8 TD: 3 FMBL
Receiving: 29 targets, 20 catches, 221 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 170.2 (23)
0.5 PPR: 180.2 (25)
1 PPR: 190.2 (27)

Tevin Coleman: Rushing: 131-535-4 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 32 targets, 23 catches, 196 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 108.1 (44)
0.5 PPR: 119.6 (45)
1 PPR: 131.1 (45)

Jerick McKinnon: Rushing: 68-279-2 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 19 targets, 14 catches, 111 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 56 (60)
0.5 PPR: 63 (62)
1 PPR: 70 (62)

Jeff Wilson: Rushing: 16-72-1 TD
Receiving: 6 targets, 4 catches, 30 Yds
Standard: 16.2 (89)
0.5 PPR: 18.2 (89)
1 PPR: 20.2 (90)

Kyle Juszczyk: Rushing: 4-11
Receiving: 18 targets, 14 catches, 131 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 20.2 (85)
0.5 PPR: 27.2 (83)
1 PPR: 34.2 (82)

Mostert is the guy to own in this 49ers backfield. He worked out the contract issues and will be the lead back of a committee. Shanahan utilizes committees, and there is talent in this backfield. But Mostert will be “the one”, Neo style. He averaged 5.6 YPC over 137 attempts in 2019. Mostert will have more touches in 2020. He is very much a boom-bust candidate, however, I think his boom and bust are a bit less drastic than some. He is gonna get 150 touches, but he won’t get 250. I like him as my RB3, and borderline as my RB2.

Coleman is the next guy to have, and his value rockets up if Mostert goes down. He is depth at the flex as is, and he is going to have a few big games. The problem I really see is McKinnon. Both Coleman and McKinnon hurt each other’s ceilings if both are healthy. Coleman is the 2, but I suspect McKinnon gets a share of the touches also. Combine that with the fact that the 49ers utilize Juszczyk as a FB weapon periodically, and you have a crowded backfield. I haven’t even mentioned Wilson. So I like Mostert, I kinda like Coleman, and a little less McKinnon. But I will reach for none of them.

WR:

Deebo is crazy explosive. When he is healthy, he is a wonderful weapon. Ask that Broncos defender. And look at Deebo’s guns!

Deebo Samuel: Rushing: 16-171-1 TD: 2 FMBL
Receiving: 91 targets, 63 catches, 877 Yds, 4 TD
Standard: 132.8 (29)
0.5 PPR: 164.3 (32)
1 PPR: 195.8 (33)

Brandon Aiyuk: Receiving: 67 targets, 41 catches, 556 Yds, 3 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 72.6 (67)
0.5 PPR: 93.1 (66)
1 PPR: 113.6 (66)

Kendrick Bourne: Receiving: 51 targets, 34 catches, 397 Yds, 4 TD
Standard: 63.7 (78)
0.5 PPR: 80.7 (80)
1 PPR: 97.7 (79)

Trent Taylor: Receiving: 29 targets, 19 catches, 186 Yds, 1 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 23.6 (115)
0.5 PPR: 33.1 (113)
1 PPR: 42.6 (110)

Richie James: Rushing: 11-63
Receiving: 13 targets, 8 catches, 106 Yds
Standard: 16.9 (143
0.5 PPR: 20.9 (142)
1 PPR: 24.9 (142)

Dante Pettis: Receiving: 5 targets, 3 catches, 41 Yds
Standard: 4.1 (159)
0.5 PPR: 5.6 (162)
1 PPR: 7.1 (163)

Deebo was a flat out playmaker for the 49ers in 2019. Just get him the ball and let him do his thing. Expect a bit of a breakout for Samuel in 2020. My projections are assuming he misses 2 games. Even if he does, he is going to eat a lot of touches up in this offense, second only to Kittle. He has slid a lot in drafts because of his injury. But I suspect he pays off huge during the fantasy playoffs portion of the season. I have high exposure.

Aiyuk is a bit of an unknown for me. He should see enough volume, but I am not sure what kind of rapport he will have built up with Jimmy G. I very nearly prefer Bourne, and do prefer Bourne for the weeks Samuel misses. He has been pretty good in bursts, and think the lack of options at WR early should benefit him most. However, I do suspect Aiyuk is WR2 by the end of the year. So target Aiyuk as well, as he should come on stronger later. Target Bourne early.

Don’t touch the other guys. Taylor may be worth a flier, but let’s be honest, Kittle is gonna get the most looks. And the backs can all catch. So the 49ers WR4 is more like a WR6. Avoid.

TE:

George Kittle is fun to watch. Also, does he have a chart graph on his left bicep? Suddenly I need to know more about that.

George Kittle: Receiving: 121 targets, 90 catches, 1,099 Yds. 5 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 138.9 (2)
0.5 PPR: 183.9 (2)
1 PPR: 228.9 (2)

Jordan Reed: Just no

Ross Dwelley: Receiving: 7 targets, 4 catches, 43 Yds
Standard: 4.3 (78)
0.5 PPR: 6.3 (78)
1 PPR: 8.3 (78)

I am aware the 49ers signed Jordan Reed. But he has 7 known concussions in his ledger, among other injuries, and doubt he plays long before being sidelined again. I didn’t project him because I refuse to touch him. I will not be shocked if he gets hurt before the season.

We are here to talk about Kittle anyways. He is a stud. Universally regarded as a top-two TE, the 49ers recently inked him to a huge extension. He goes a bit early for me, but I want exposure. To be honest, he is about as safe as it gets for TE and has an elite floor. He will benefit from Samuel coming back, as that is another weapon defenses will have to worry about, but his volume may be up early because of Samuel missing time. Either way, if you get Kittle, feel free to relax at TE.

Don’t touch Dwelley, same as Reed. Kittle is special, there is no room for anyone else in the 49ers TE room on any rosters.

I project the 49ers to score 1,225.36 points in 0.5 PPR, which is 22nd. A variety of factors contribute to that lowish ranking. Despite having talent on offense, the defensive talent is at least as impressive. I don’t suspect the 49ers play from behind too often. They also like to run, which does not help 0.5 PPR fantasy projections very much. I love Kittle, I am a huge fan of Mostert and Samuel, and can see targeting Coleman, Aiyuk, and Bourne as well. There is enough to like here to dip in, but be careful putting all your eggs in a basket Jimmy G is holding.

The Garoppolo fans out there probably hate me. Let me remind you, he doesn’t totally suck. See I don’t hate him, I just really don’t like him as a fantasy QB. Get it!? Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks. Follow Belly Up Fantasy on Twitter for all your sports needs. Next up, we have the Los Angeles Rams.