Verdict Scale

Dynasty- These are the guys you’re looking for in dynasty leagues.

Redraft- These are the guys you want in redraft leagues

Stash-These are the players that will make good bench players, and/or stash them for dynasty.

Fade-These are the players, I think you can avoid.

Las Vegas Raiders Offseason

The offseason for the Las Vegas Raiders has been a little head-scratching. First, they traded tackle Trent Brown and All-Pro center, Rodney Hudson. They also brought in running back Kenyan Drake to back up Josh Jacobs, making us wonder if Gruden still has faith in Jacobs. Then in the 2021 Draft, they picked offensive tackle Alex Leatherwood, who seemed like a bit of a reach for the selection. Overall, the narrative is a bit confusing in Vegas, it seems like they want to continue doing what they were doing in 2020. I just wonder if they are aware that it’s not working?

Quarterback

Derek Carr

Derek Carr has thrown 4,000 yds in each of the past 3 seasons. His 2020 totals were 4,103 yards, 27 TDs, and 9 interceptions (ints), with a career-best 71.0 quarterback rating. A couple of stats that were telling for me were his interceptable passes. Playerprofiler.com has him at 17th with only 20 passes that could’ve been intercepted. Why is this important? Its importance lies in the sheer number of passing attempts (517) Carr threw and more importantly his deep throws (65) which was good for 8th in the league. Carr was deceptively accurate downfield last year, completing 44.6 percent of his deep throws last year. This is deadly considering the deep ball is a serious part of the Raiders game plan, and they have multiple field stretchers.

One thing I saw that Carr has done better is he has become a clutch quarterback, someone to rely on for the game-winning drive. Last year he had 29 money throws (throws that are executed in clutch moments), which ranked 8th last year. Derek Carr should be all about the money throws this year, and if so will be a steal in later rounds. Carr is not a QB1, but in superflex leagues, he’s QB2 or bench QB, because he will get hot during the season and will be an excellent plug and play. My prediction is 4,200-4,500, 30 TDs and 10 ints. As of today, Carr is QB 23 and an easy pick-up in the later rounds. Verdict: Redraft

Running Back

Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs had ups and downs in the 2020 season. He saw vast improvements in red-zone touches from 2019 (44) to 2020 (65) and had the 3rd most goal line carries (16). Jacobs was a beast where it mattered most, rushing the ball 64 times for 166 yards and 11 TDs. He also had career highs in receiving targets (44) and receiving yards (238). Where Jacobs declined was his yards per carry (YPC) 3.9. Certainly, it’s not ideal to get rid of your best linemen when your RB had a career-low YPC. 

This makes me concerned about Jacobs’ value going into 2021. Adding in the fact that the Raiders brought Kenyan Drake into the picture, it can make you hesitant when drafting Josh Jacobs. He is certainly still an RB2 but some wonder how much involvement Drake will have in this offense. Last year, Devonte Booker took about 20% of the rushing attempts, and that’s what’s worrisome with Drake because he is far superior to Booker as a running back. Overall, I’m letting Jacobs fall to me at rounds 4-6, not jumping the gun on him. It’s not his talent, it’s his team that scares me. Jacobs is still a low-end RB2 and my prediction is 1000-1200 yds, 8-10 TDs while adding 30 recs and 100-200 yds. Verdict: Redraft

Kenyan Drake

Kenyan Drake as the Cardinals starting running back last year put up 955 yds and 10 TDs on 239 cars. This year, Drake will be playing back up to Josh Jacobs, but one has to wonder how many touches Drake will get in 2021. Raiders coach, John Gruden, when asked about Drake’s role on an episode of the Raider Report on Youtube said, “We’re going to try to circulate the touches Kenyan Drake’s way. He’s a guy that’s made big plays.” This is promising considering Drake has the ability to make the most of any touches he gets, case and point was his 4.0 YPC last year. Drake also had 25 recs and 137 receiving yds last year. Utilizing Drake as a receiver could make Drake the most promising handcuff to grab this upcoming year.

Drake barring an injury to Josh Jacobs will be limited in his fantasy production in 2021. If Gruden is true to his word, then he should still have value as a running back/receiver hybrid. Smart owners will take a chance on Drake regardless of whether they have Jacobs or not. Let’s remember that Kareem Hunt was fantasy-relevant last year regardless of Nick Chubb’s breakout year. I’m projecting that Drake and Jacobs will have a running back split of either 50-40-10 or 60-30-10. This would account for Derek Carr or Jalen Richard getting 10% of carries. Below I have attached a projection table for these splits, with a 17 game season based on YPC from 2020. Verdict: Stash

Metric	Jacobs 50%	Drake 40%	Jacobs 60%	Drake 30%
Carries	251	201	301	150
Yards	979	804	1,174	600
TDS	11	8	13	6

Wide Receiver

Henry Ruggs

The Raiders grabbed the speedy receiver to stretch the field for the team, but what they neglected to do was watch tape on Ruggs. If you’ve watched Henry Ruggs in college you know this guy wasn’t just a field stretcher, he ran quite a bit of shorter routes. One of the deadliest things you can do with a speedster is getting him the ball and watch him outrun the defense. Ruggs had 5.6 YAC while running an average ADOT of 17.4 yds. The most interesting stat was that she was only targeted 14 times deep. Those stats explain why Ruggs’ stat line last year was underwhelming at 26 recs, 452 yds, and 2 TDs. That’s an outstanding 17.4 yards per rec, now imagine if he had 50 catches or more. Ruggs would be a stud in this league and a steal this year.

What really stood out for me last season was Ruggs’ average yards of separation when targeted, a league-leading 2.31 yds. This is someone whose speed exploits defenses, and if used at an ADOT of 10 and asked to go get a YAC of 7, instantly becomes a weapon on this Raider offense. My hope for this team is that the team brought in John Brown to take on the perimeter role and free up Ruggs to play all over the field. Carr has a guy in Ruggs who can exploit the slot, run the screens and make plays with his speed and acceleration. My prediction for Ruggs is a strong campaign 50-75 recs, 800-1000 yds, and 6 TDs. Verdict: Dynasty

Ruggs stat projections based on targets (using his 2020 stats)

Metric	50 Targets	75 Targets	100 Targets
Receptions	30	45	61
Yards	522	783	1,061
TDs	2	3	5

Bryan Edwards

I owned a lot of shares of Bryan Edwards in 2020 and I also released or traded just about all of those shares the next year. This guy had 12 games last year to prove something and couldn’t even muster up a catch per game. Last year, Edwards posted 11 recs, 193 yds, and 1 TD on 15 targets. I think the biggest problem in Las Vegas for Edwards is the offense that the team runs. The Raiders have always been an organization that appreciates its speedsters, which is not Edwards’ profile. Edwards is more of a possession receiver who can get the ball and work.

I’m fading Edwards this year because he got lost in the shuffle last year behind Renfrow, Agholor, and Ruggs. This year he finds himself competing with John Brown instead of Agholor, but it still seems like the Raiders have not seen enough yet to trust Edwards as a starter. I expect a better year from the sophomore receiver, but nothing that’ll make fantasy owners regret not drafting him. Verdict: Fade

Hunter Renfrow

Hunter Renfrow going into 2021 is ranked WR88 by FantasyPros, that’s the lowest rank of the Raiders possible starting receivers. Renfrow last year had 56 recs, 656 yds, 2 TDs on 77 targets, and had the 2nd most receptions on the team. Boasting a 72.7% catch rate and 11.7 yards per touch, Renfrow on any other team would be a top 50 wide receiver.

At this point, he is a better Henry Ruggs, with less draft capital invested in him. I think he’s best utilized in the slot, which I believe is where Ruggs will be taking a lot of his snaps next year. It sucks because Renfrow is a good player but he needs Ruggs to improve as a perimeter threat or totally flop to be relevant. Verdict: Stash

John Brown

I’m fading John Brown this year because at 31 years old I don’t see him getting better. He seems to have been brought in to replace Nelson Aghlor, but I wonder about his health and ability at this stage in his career. Battling calf injuries last year forced Brown out for 7 games last year, and when he was on the field he seemed ineffective. In the 9 regular season games Brown played in, he posted 33 recs, 458 yds, and 3 TDs. Brown has only been targeted 100 times in three seasons in his career. His averages from those seasons were 106 targets, 62 recs, 920 yds, and 6 TDs. Brown’s career-best finish in fantasy was WR19 in 2019 when he had a career year for recs (72), yards (1,060), and targets (115). 

While possible that he can return to form in 2021, it seems unlikely due to the presence of Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs. It would take an absolute dud performance from Ruggs to give Brown the opportunities needed to achieve fantasy relevance. Last year for Aghlor seemed like the perfect storm, with the Raiders rookies not coming on strong and the need for a number 2 option behind Waller. I’m not banking on it becoming a trend in this offense. Thus I’m not grabbing Brown this year even at his inexpensive price, I think he’ll end up being cut from a lot of fantasy rosters this upcoming season. Verdict: Fade

Tight Ends

Darren Waller

Last Year Darren Waller was incredible, tallying 107 receptions (recs), 1196 yards (yds), and 9 TDs on 145 targets. A monster for the Raiders in 2020, Waller will look to reprise his role in 2021 as a target machine. Waller’s dominator score (percentage of team’s yards and TDs that the player received) for last year was 29.7 percent. This shows how much of a weapon he was in the Las Vegas offense, which I attribute to his strong route tree. Last year his average depth of target (ADOT) was 7.8, while also leading all tight ends with 17 deep targets. Waller is successful wherever the Raiders put him and is an open field threat as indicated by his 5.3 yards after the catch (YAC) and 7 broken tackles. 

The reason this guy is a “can’t miss” player is because his role is the same. The Raiders have changed very little that could affect Waller’s stats this year. Las Vegas needs to keep Waller on underneath and short routes, feeding him targets and reaping the rewards of putting the ball in his hands. Overall my projections for Waller are 150-170 targets, 110-125 recs, 1200-1375 yds, and 10-15 TDs. Verdict: Dynasty/Redraft

Foster Moreau

Foster Moreau has been a beast whenever his number is called on. In the 9 games, he’s started Moreau’s stats are 28 recs, 314 yds, and 7 TDs. Being the backup to Darren Waller means he hasn’t gotten many touches in his 2 seasons with Las Vegas. In a recent interview with SB Nation, Waller talked about Moreau’s progress, “Just from working with him in the offseason, he’s working hard with me, like he’s even pushing me with the way that he works”. Waller also stated how he sees Moreau’s potential in this offense, “He can be an extremely vital component to this offense”. That being said, if Moreau and Waller are working hard this offseason, it’ll be in the Raiders’ best interest to get this guy on the field. Verdict: Stash

Conclusion

The Raiders are going to be an up and down team this year. There will be weeks that you regret drafting them and weeks you wish you had more of them. Overall, getting the core guys on this team will make your team strong. There are also a couple of good stashes from this team and some guys you can get late. The Raiders will be a strong offense and will help some of your teams to championships.

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