It’s often said, you don’t win your draft in your first round, but you can lose it there. Obviously, we don’t want to lose. Here’s a guide for players to look at in the first round. I’ll break it down by rankings and tiers. Take my tiers more seriously than my rankings as my rankings within my tiers aren’t as important.

I’ll use half-PPR since it’s not too far off from standard and PPR scoring and we’ll assume it’s a 12 team 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX, 1K, 1DST redraft league since that’s what seems to be the most popular (3WR or 2FLEX is common too, but that wouldn’t affect my order). So let’s get into my list of who to draft first.

Tier 1

1. Christian McCaffery

Only one person belongs here and it’s Christian McCaffery. His floor is the ceiling of any other player. He averaged 27.3 fantasy points last year and 25.8 the year before. The next-best non-QB last year was Dalvin Cook with 22.6 and Derrick Henry with 19.0 the year before. The runner-ups aren’t even close. He’s like having an RB1 and WR2 in one player and that offers his fantasy managers a huge advantage.

Tier 2

2. Dalvin Cook

He does miss a few games every year, but he still managed to get over 250 carries and 50 targets per season throughout the past couple of years. He also averaged over a TD per game during that time span, which boosts his upside. He is the guy in Minnesota and despite his injuries, often tries to play through it.

3. Ezekiel Elliott

I definitely have Ezekiel Elliott higher than consensus/ADP, but I think his drop from being a perennial top-5 draft pick is largely based on people not understanding context. Let’s look at his finishes since entering the NFL: 2016: RB2, 2017: RB10, 2018: RB5, 2019: RB4, and 2020: RB11. No one else has remained an RB1 throughout that span. However, he is even better than these numbers suggest. In 2017, he was suspended for 6 games. Throughout the games he played, he was the RB3. Last year, he caught COVID-19, he was injured, his starting QB was injured, his backup QB got injured, and he played behind a backup O-line. From week 1 to week 5 (the games Dak Prescott played before he got injured), Zeke was the RB3. Some may be worried about Tony Pollard stealing touches, but Zeke’s huge contract dictates that he’ll be the workhorse back in Dallas.

4. Derrick Henry

The guy might be the best runner in the league. If passing didn’t count in fantasy, he might be my top pick. However, his lack of involvement in the receiving game limits his upside. Some are concerned about his age, but until he shows it on the field, I wouldn’t worry about it.

5. Alvin Kamara

Why do I have the RB1 from last year ranked so low? There’s no Drew Brees. The Saints showed they’d start Taysom Hill over Jameis Winston. Taysom Hill is an incredible athlete who can run the ball and we’ve seen what rushing QBs do for fantasy running backs in Baltimore, Buffalo, and Arizona. Alvin Kamara will still be a great back, but his floor and ceiling will fall drastically while Hill is behind centre. If Winston takes the starting job, it wouldn’t be as bad for Kamara, but he’d still be a downgrade from future Hall of Famer Drew Brees.

6. Saquon Barkley

I used to have Saquon Barkley at number 2. However, with news that he might not be healthy to start the season, it’s tough to draft him above all the other names I just mentioned. He is arguably the best athlete in the NFL but his health combined with his subpar offensive line keeps him from being at the top of this tier. I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to avoid this risk in the first round completely but his ceiling is huge. To me, he’s the RB that’s closest to being able to produce what Christian McCaffery can.

Tier 3

7. Travis Kelce

A TE in the first round? This may be the first time it’s ever been widely accepted in fantasy. But when a tight end puts up similar numbers to the best wide receivers, it’s tough to pass him ever. In my opinion, Travis Kelce offers the largest positional advantage after Christian McCaffery.

8. Austin Ekeler

This is probably the biggest surprise here. Many have Austin Ekeler as a second-rounder, but I think he’s being slept on because every season, he has either been the RB2 behind Melvin Gordon or has missed significant time. Because of those factors, he has never finished a season ranked very high. But if you take his 9 healthy games last season and project them over 16, he would have gotten over 200 carries and 100 targets. That volume puts him in the Alvin Kamara range. He doesn’t get many TDs but he has to improve on the 3 he got last year. Add in the fact that his team looks like it’s improving almost everywhere and there’s a reason I’m shocked he’s usually going in the second round or later.

9. Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb is one of the best runners behind one of the best offensives lines in the NFL. So why isn’t he in tier 2? Having a stud teammate in Kareem Hunt and having little passing game involvement limits his ceiling. But don’t let Hunt scare you either. That Browns offence can definitely support two top-24 RBs.

10. Aaron Jones

Aaron Rodgers‘ status may affect him, but Aaron Jones has proven he’s a great runner and pass catcher. Losing Jamaal Williams should help solidify his role as the 3rd down back, but we’ll see how much they decide to involve AJ Dillon.

11. Tyreek Hill

Another Chief? Well, when you have the highest-paid QB in Patrick Mahomes mainly targeting two guys, it makes sense that both of them could go in the first round. With Sammy Watkins gone and no other significant additions, Tyreek Hill should get tons of deep high-value targets. He’s the type of player who can regularly put up WR1 numbers in one play.

Tier 4

12. Davante Adams

Here’s another player whose ranking will depend on what Aaron Rodgers decides to do. That uncertainty is what keeps him from jumping Hill in my rankings. But assuming Rodgers is there, he’ll get plenty of great targets. Jeremy Fowler just ranked the top WRs based on a poll sent to over 50 execs, coaches, scouts, and players, and Davante Adams destroyed it by ranking first on over half the ballots.

13. Jonathan Taylor

I know there can only be 12 players in the first round of a 12 player draft, but I wanted to bring up this name since he’s often taken in the first round. This is probably the lowest player on my list relative to ECR/ADP. However, to me, Jonathan Taylor has shown too little in a situation that’s too different from his current one to warrant a high first-round pick. I can’t justify that uncertainty in the first round. The depth chart is different, the schedule is different, and most importantly, the QB is different. I’d say, all three of these are not good things for Jonathan Taylor’s fantasy outlook. He’s still a great runner and receiver behind a great O-line so his ceiling is huge. I just wouldn’t draft someone at their ceiling.

Wrap-Up

Hopefully, this guide helps you figure out who to draft first. Remember, don’t focus too much on the rankings, but rather, use my tiers and notes to help you to figure out your first pick.

If you found this article helpful, check out other Belly Up Fantasy Sports articles at Belly Up Fantasy and you can follow me at @liuac.