It’s been an amazing football season. I personally could not be happier with how this is turning out. My New England Patriots are on top of the AFC right now with a 9-4 record. They are winners of seven straight and bettors would love to see that they are 7-0 ATS in those games. I have been betting on the Patriots consistently all year and it’s encouraging to see the boys pull through week after week.

Not to mention Mac Jones and Bill Belichick are the favorites for Offensive Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year, respectively. The defense looks unstoppable at times, with opposing offenses looking lost and puzzled on the field. I mean how do you stop this team right now?! Thank you to everyone who has helped me this past year with the horror that was the Patriots 2020-2021 NFL season. It means a lot. Really, it truly does.

I really don’t know how Detroit Lions fans have dealt with mediocrity for the past half-century. I feel Lions fans and maybe that is why I consistently love betting on the Lions. They are the people’s team of the NFL and epitomize grit and pride. The motto that they live by is, “Today’s Preparation Determines Tomorrow’s Success.” I mean how the hell does that not just make you want to run through a brick wall? I think slowly but surely, the Lions will become the NFC team I cheer for. That is, however, until the goat, Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, retires. The Lions are also an amazing 8-5 ATS this year, a betting lock from the underdog position. Okay, enough about my newfound betting fondness for the Lions. Time to get into this week’s betting locks.

2021 NFL Betting, A Roller Coaster of Emotions

No one is tougher on my gambling picks than me. I am my own biggest critic, and as of right now I am underwhelmed. This season has been the definition of a roller coaster. One week I go 5-0, the next 2-3. It’s like clockwork. I really just cannot get a hold of things, and I need to figure out why. I am 17-13 ATS on the season which is good but it’s not going to put dinner on the table. Literally, the only thing more inconsistent than my gambling right now are the COVID-19 protocols that the NFL implements.

Many people fold up and curl up in a ball when they face pressure. Not this guy. I am going to overcome the COVID-19 health and safety protocols this week. I personally guarantee I go 3-2 or better and it all starts on Saturday. Yesterday I did not bet on the Chargers or Chiefs and watched the game as a fan with genuine interest to see points. The only good to come out of the game was that I did have fun attempting a meme.

Chiefs -3….

Best game of the year#ChiefsKingdom #TNF #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/i2sUC6yMvn

— Peter van Seventer (@PetevanSeventer) December 17, 2021

Maybe not the best work but I tried to be hip. In the words of Steve Buscemi, “How do you do, fellow kids”.

First off, remind me to never do that again. It was just not the same. Not to say I needed skin in the game, but when you watch a Thursday Night Football classic like that with the over hitting in the final quarter, it leaves a tear in your eye. I missed out on betting the over with the fellas and that is just as disappointing as losing.

Justice for the Over! pic.twitter.com/SQzd4dxFEw

— Big Cat (@BarstoolBigCat) December 17, 2021

Week 11, The Most Miserable Betting Week Ever

I must say, this week I am very excited looking at the board. Last time I had a gut feeling with the board I was unfortunately correct. I knew it was a bad week of games to bet on in Week 11 and I got torn apart going an abysmal 1-4 ATS.  I had to explain to my loved ones why I was being called a mush, a real embarrassing conversation to have with your own mother.

The picks I lost on were as follows,

Saints +1.5 L

Chiefs -2.5 W

Browns -11.5 L

Hawks +2.5 L

Packers -2 L

She did bring some positivity though, as she enthusiastically told me that my Uncles wanted my picks! I was shocked and knew it was a trap and I asked her to keep reading the text and it continued to say… so we can fade the crap out of him. I don’t blame them one bit.

Well, this week we will prove them wrong. We come out firing, giving lock after lock until all of our holiday shopping is paid for courtesy of BellyUpSports NFL Locks. Now before we get into the thick of things for my picks this week I think we should go over how I am using insights to make my decisions.

Prior Obligatory Betting Preface

First, I am going to list them all below and give a couple of bullets for why I like those picks specifically. I used OddShark.com and checked out NFL trends from this season so far to give me some insight while I make these picks. As always, the lines I got were on Bovada.com.

Now it’s time to hop on the bandwagon because I promise you we’re going on a betting heater, some may call this the run of my life. I call it my typical betting week in the NFL. Parlay Pete is also making a return, and I am including a juicy three team ML parlay to be the cherry on top of my five locks. Let’s get into the picks, and bankrupt your bookie.

https://t.co/PMksiX8UYV pic.twitter.com/iBnab6617v

— Peter van Seventer (@PetevanSeventer) November 21, 2021

Winter is Here, NFL Week 15 Best Bets Starts Now

Pats +2.5 @Colts, Pick Pats

• 5-0 straight up on the road in their last 5 games
• New England is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games
• Pats have a seven game winning streak
• New England is 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Indianapolis
• Bill Belichick and the Patriots are on a mission. The Colts openly said that they want to put the game in Mac Jones’ hands. I think the Pats are the better team they are coming off a bye week and Bill is ready to lock up that number one seed and have the AFC go through Foxborough

Panthers +12 @Bills, Pick Bills

• Panthers are 2-8 ATS in last 10 games
• Bills 8-1 ATS in the last nine games against NFC opponents
• Bills are coming off two straight losses and winning is a necessity this week
• Statement game for the Bills to prove they are an AFC and Super Bowl contender
• The Bills are home and in dire need of a victory. They nearly made an amazing comeback on the road versus the Bucs last week thanks to Josh Allen’s heroics, but in the end, came up short. The Bills have to win this game to stay in the division race with the Patriots. They have a game in Foxborough next week which could potentially be for the division and losing this game against Carolina would be devastating. The Panthers have no viable options at Quarterback and are a mess offensively. I expect the Bills to win big.

Cardinals -12.5 @Lions, Pick Cardinals

• Arizona 8-3 ATS last 11 Games
• Arizona is 7-0 ATS on the road in the last seven road games
• Cardinals coming off a bad loss and need to regain traction to win the NFC West crown, to get home field advantage for part of the playoffs
• Personally this game seems too easy. The Cardinals lost to the Rams last week and with the 49ers heating up, winning in Detroit is crucial. I think Kyler is going to get his groove back and what team is better to play in a spot like this than the Lions. I know I said I love the Lions and praised their ATS record, but the Cardinals are coming for blood and I believe this game has a blowout written all over it.

Bengals +3 @Broncos, Pick Bengals

• Bengals are 4-1 ATS last five games on the road
• The AFC North is a wide-open division with the Lamar injury and Browns COVID-19 Problems, making this a must win for Bengals to take advantage of rivals
• Denver is 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus AFC opponents
• Joe Burrow nearly made an improbable comeback last week versus the 49ers but came up short in overtime. The Broncos are so plain to me and I never know what to anticipate with them. They are an accident waiting to happen in my opinion, with this week being a huge chance for them to be on upset alert. I expect the Bengals to come out firing and ready to prove that they aren’t the same typical Bengals of old. I personally like the Bengals to win in this spot as well and think that their money line is a great play.

Packers -6.5 @Ravens

• Packers 11-1 ATS in last 12 games
• Additionally, Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in the last six games on road
• Lamar is hurting and is status is questionable for Sunday
• Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are playing like the best team in the NFL this season. After a dramatic off-season with rumors swirling left and right, it seems that all has been forgotten for now. They are in the driver’s seat in the NFC and winning a game like this would be incredible to lock up that number one seed. This is a must-win and with Lamar most likely playing, hurt or not, playing at all I think the Packers are the best play. They are a machine ATS this year and I don’t expect that to stop until they play a healthy playoff team.

The Parlay Pete Special

Patriots, Vikings, 49ers +270 ML Parlay

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