One of my pet peeves, especially in dynasty fantasy, is when people tell others that a trade is objectively bad. Now, obviously, Patrick Mahomes/Steph Curry/Connor McDavid/Mookie Betts for a 2024 fourth is a bad trade, but most trades are transactions where both players think they win. However, the word “think” is a key one. There are many biases that can influence the way we think and that can lead to bad moves. I want to go through some of these so you can try to avoid having bias in trades.

Seller’s Bias

I’m guilty of this too, but often, people tend to value players on their roster higher than if those players were not. I find in general, people value players being traded away closer to their ceiling. There can be different reasons for this.

One reason is that people feel invested in the players they drafted or traded for. The sunk cost fallacy can also apply here. People may have overspent on a player and may try to get that original value back rather than trying to value them as they are now. Sometimes, player values may never recover.

Another factor that plays into this is that some players don’t want to let go of a player unless they think they clearly win the trade. This can hinder people from trades that would otherwise help their team.

Furthermore, some people just get emotionally attached to the players on their roster. They see them as “my guys” and that makes them tough to let go of.

When looking at a trade, try to ignore what you paid for your players and try to take out the fact that they are on your team. Just look at the two sides and see which side you would rather have.

Some sellers can have a negative bias too though. This often happens when a player has hurt them. This can occur if a player is going through a rough season or if they are injured. Because the player hurt their team, that can leave a negative taste in the manager’s mouth, even though how they hurt them isn’t very likely to happen again.

But more often than not, I find most managers overvalue players that are on their rosters. Hopefully, your whole league isn’t like this, otherwise, trades are not very likely to happen.

Buyer’s Bias

This can have opposite effects on different people. Sometimes people who are trade-happy see trade targets at their ceiling. These managers can be the rare exceptions who don’t have seller bias, but rather often think the grass is greener on the other side. As soon as one of their player has a bad game and another player has a good game, they want to sell low and buy high. This generally occurs with impatient managers who always want to win now, but in doing so, make their team worse and worse.

Others are subject to the seller’s bias mentioned above. In these cases, the opposite effect occurs where they often see potential incoming players closer to their floors. This is when managers are too afraid to lose a deal so they want to clearly win the trade when valuing their outgoing players and the incoming players.

In discussing trades with many people, I’ve seen both of these happen.

Recency Bias

Players go through hills and valleys. This is where buy-low and sell-high comes into play. Smart fantasy players buy players when they are under-performing and sell players when they are over-performing. You need to find fantasy players who fall prey to recency bias to target with these types of trades.

Ad Populum

Whether through trade calculators, ADP (average draft position), public forums, popularity, or news cycles, some players gain value because other people value them. This is slightly different from recency bias because bias from popularity can be sustained.

Instant Gratification

Some people are unable to build a win-later team. They always need the best players. This can possibly help if they really do have a win-now team but it often leads to cheaply giving away picks and prospects.

Tip

There are a few tips I try to use to avoid bias. Here are some of them:

• When considering a trade you’re involved in, try to remove yourself from it and pretend someone else is asking you about the trade
  • ex. You may have seen people ask “Who wins?” questions regarding trades. Imagine you’re helping someone answer that.
  • This can help combat buyer’s and seller’s bias
• Remember that players get injured, that players go through ups and downs (especially everyone non-running backs), and that rookies take time to develop
  • ex. People often unjustly call people injury-prone just because they were injured recently
  • This can help combat recency bias
• Ignore what others will think of the trade or player(s). Use your own analysis (and the analysis of professionals) to judge the trade
  • ex. Don’t let a trade calculator or others in the league tell you who won the trade
  • This can help combat public peer pressure
• Think long-term and try to make sure you aren’t giving up too much value to get a player to help you right now
  • ex. Think about how this trade will affect your team in two to three years
  • This can help keep you from the mistakes that come with wanting instant gratification

Wrap-Up

Hopefully, this article helps you to avoid bias in trades. Additionally, I hope you can take advantage of this knowledge to make trades that help your team.

If you found this article helpful, check out other Belly Up Fantasy Sports articles at Belly Up Fantasy and you can follow me on Twitter.