Welcome to the first of many Major League Baseball “best bet” articles that I’ll be bringing you throughout the 2022 MLB season. Tuesday’s slate will see all 30 of the league’s teams in action, with the Mets, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Nationals running it twice following Monday’s postponements. 

With that being said, here are my two favorite picks for today’s action.

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners

Two AL West aces are set to faceoff in the Pacific Northwest Tuesday evening. Robbie Ray, 2021’s AL Cy Young Award Winner, and Jon Gray, a recent pickup from Colorado, create what you’d expect to be a quality pitchers-duel. However, I expect a fair share of runs in this contest. 

Let’s start with Ray. The 30-year-old left-hander is fresh off a career season with the Toronto Blue Jays. Unfortunately for Seattle, Ray’s yet to find his form in 2022 as he’s allowed 7 ER in just 13.1 IP. Additionally, Ray’s punched out just nine batters after compiling 11.5 K/9 last term. His velocity is way down this season as well. Last year, his fastball velocity averaged 94.8 MPH: this season, just 91.9. A much-improved Rangers lineup could see Ray falter yet again in this one.

Expect Both Sets of Bats To Come Alive in This One

Following the additions of All-Stars Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, many expected Texas to improve at the plate. Despite a 2-7 start, the Rangers have mashed against lefties, leading MLB with a 181 WRC+. Additional metrics show this is no fluke, as they trail only the St. Louis Cardinals in SLG and OPS against southpaws, racking up .571 and .954 marks, respectively. 

Seattle should also be able to put runs on the board in this matchup. Gray owns a career ERA of 4.60 and struggled in his first outing in new threads. The Texan allowed three runners to score in just four innings at Toronto. Gray managed just 70 pitches before being replaced in that outing. If Texas is forced to get the bullpen up early in this one, they’ll likely struggle to keep the Mariners from turning left, as they currently sit last amongst MLB with a 5.66 bullpen ERA. 

Although the M’s rank 21^st with 3.9 runs per game through ten contests, they’re yet to see a few of their better hitters get going this season. Mitch Haniger and Jesse Winker, who combined for 63 home runs in 2021, are hitting below .180, while Winker is yet to tally his first round-tripper. A matchup with a struggling Rangers pitching staff could be just what the doctor ordered for the pair of outfielders and the entirety of Seattle’s lineup.

Best bet: Over 7.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies

Behind an excellent outing from Chad Kuhl, the Rockies were able to keep Philadelphia’s bats in check in game one of the series Monday. Kyle Freeland may find it challenging to do the same in game two. The soft-tossing lefty struggles to miss bats and gives up plenty of solid contacts, ranking in the 15^th percentile in HardHit% through two starts. Furthermore, the Phillies have fared well against southpaws so far this season, totaling a .899 OPS through 101 plate appearances, good enough for fourth in MLB.

Philadelphia ranks 13^th with a 22.3 K%. They should have no problems putting the ball in play against Freeland. The left-hander boasts a career K/9 rate of just 7.0. We know the ball flies at Coors Field, and I expect the Phillies to make good contact in this one. 

Opposing Freeland is 34-year-old right-hander Kyle Gibson. The former Minnesota Twin was dealt from the Rangers to Philadelphia at the trade deadline last season. The deal came on the heels of Gibson’s first career All-Star Game appearance. Although Philadelphia missed out on the postseason, Gibson put together a quality campaign as he threw 180 innings while maintaining a 3.71 ERA.

Gibson has pitched well through two starts in 2022. His ERA sits at a respectable 3.09, while his 2.24 FIP indicates he’s been even better than the ERA suggests. Gibson’s also missing bats at a career-high rate. His 16 Ks in 11.2 IP leaves him in the 90^th percentile in Whiff%. I’ll trust Gibson and the gaudy Phillies lineup to take care of business in Denver Tuesday.

Best bet: Phillies ML (-125 at Fanduel)

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