Welcome to the third rendition of MLB Best Bets here at Belly Up Sports. We’re .500 through four picks and looking to finally breakthrough. Today, we’ll focus on a contest between arguably the top two teams in the American League, and conclude with one of baseball’s greatest rivalries.

With that being said, here are my two best bets as part of MLB’s Tuesday slate.

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays

Thanks to some unforeseen heroics from Gleyber Torres, the Yankees were able to take game one in Toronto Monday Night. I think the Blue Jays have the advantage in round two and expect Alek Manoah to keep the Bronx Bombers quiet. Tuesday’s probable pitchers, Manoah and right-hander Jameson Taillon actually squared off back on April 11. Although Taillon pitched well in that one, Manoah was sensational. The 24-year-old went six scoreless innings and allowed just one hit en route to a 3-0 Jays victory.

Manoah has been fantastic through four starts this season. His 1.44 ERA ranks sixth amongst qualified starters. It won’t be easy on Tuesday though, the Yankees’ offense has been elite since Manoah shut them down, compiling a 126 wRC+ and leading baseball in SLG since April 12. On the contrary, Toronto’s bats have underperformed relative to expectations this season, ranking just 19th in runs per game with 3.92.

Familiarity with Taillon Could be the Key

Since being acquired from the Pirates in January of 2021, Taillon has faced off with Toronto four times. He’s 0-3 with a 5.50 ERA in those four starts. The likes of George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should continue to see success against Taillon in this one. As a whole, Taillon’s 3.26 ERA is very respectable, but he doesn’t miss many bats and concedes over a hit per inning to his opponents.

The Yankees’ bullpen has been great this season and features a rested Aroldis Chapman, as well as a fully-loaded Michael King, who’s quietly looked like one of the best relievers in baseball this season. I have questions about Toronto’s bullpen outside of Jordan Romano, and their lack of depth in the later innings actually cost them on Monday. For that reason, I’ll be looking to avoid the bullpens altogether and target the first five innings tonight.

The pick: Blue Jays F5 ML (-130 at DraftKings)

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

The Giants and Dodgers are set to renew one of Major League Baseball’s best rivalries Tuesday evening. Both teams have gotten off to excellent starts, and are expected to battle for the NL West crown all season. Los Angeles boasts the league’s best run differential at +47, but San Francisco and their newfound “ace” may be undervalued in the series opener.

Carlos Rodón is slated to start for the Giants in this one and has arguably been Major League Baseball’s best starter in 2022. The southpaw leads all National League starters in FIP, WAR, and K/9 this season. We saw flashes of Rodón’s dominance in Chicago, but it may be in San Francisco for good. Rodón is throwing hard than ever before and getting more whiffs because of it.

The same cannot be set for Dodgers starter Julio Urías. The Mexican has pitched well through four starts and his 2.50 ERA suggests he’s the elite starter he’s been for a few years. However, Urías’ FIP sits at 4.36 and has experienced a drastic decline in velocity, whiff%, and chase rate this season. I’m looking to fade Urías while he’s overvalued in the market.

Starting Pitchers Should Decide This One

Neither the Giants nor the Dodgers excel against left-handed pitchers. Los Angeles ranks 19th with a 90 wRC+ against southpaws, while San Francisco is one spot behind them in 20th. To me, this means there isn’t much separating these two teams when facing left-handed opposition. Therefore, I’ll place more of an emphasis on the pitching matchup when deciding who to back. I’ve already established that I think Rodón is the better of the two starters, but how about the bullpens?

Well, they’re both elites. The Giants’ bullpen leads the National League with a team ERA of 2.59, but the Dodgers rank second with a bullpen ERA of 2.77. Again, not much to split these two teams. So, again, I’ll focus on the starting pitching matchup. I fully buy in to everything Rodón is doing this season and think San Francisco develops pitchers as well, if not better than any team in baseball. I think the Giants should be right around even money, so I’ll gladly take them as dogs.

The pick: Giants ML (+126 at Fanduel)

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