Thursday, November 21, 2024

Trending
Week Eleven Fantasy Football Starts/Sits Week Ten Fantasy Football Starts/Sits Fantasy Football Week Nine Starts/Sits Week Eight Fantasy Football Starts/Sits Week Seven Fantasy Football Starts/Sits Week Six Fantasy Football Starts/Sits Winning the Wire: Weekly Must-Adds w/ TheCiege! Week Five Fantasy Football Starts/Sits Week Four Fantasy Football Starts/Sits
Betting, Featured, Gambling

2022 NFL Win Totals: The West

Peter van Seventer

The Dog Days of Summer are upon us and have hit harder than usual. With the NBA and NHL seasons just coming to a close, it put the MLB in the spotlight. Going to a baseball game is a summer classic. There is no better feeling than enjoying an ice-cold beer and to my Bostonians out there, a Fenway Frank drizzled in yellow mustard.

But with so many games being played over the course of a season, it is hard to get invested day in and day out. We are all missing something dear to our hearts and that something is sitting on our couches for hours on end watching our favorite NFL teams play. We’re almost there. I can smell the buffalo wings being slathered in sauce and my friends arguing which condiment goes better with it. Don’t worry, I’m no rookie, I know blue cheese is the go-to move.

With it being so close I thought to get in the spirit of things I would look into the most controversial betting topic before every NFL season. The NFL win totals. The 2022 NFL season is an arm’s length away and it is time to get back into the lab. Let’s rattle off some hot takes.

You Never Forget Your First…

I’m not gonna lie. I’m a little nervous. I mean, this is my first ever win total preview for the NFL. And you know what they say, you never forget your first love (or in this case, first time betting on every NFL team’s win total). I have dabbled in taking over-under wins on my beloved Patriots in the past, or on teams, I randomly gravitate towards during the off-season. But this time I am going all the way. Yeah, that’s right, I’m betting on the entirety of the 2022 NFL win totals for the season. Sure call me crazy, but you know what would be even crazier? Not cashing in on these absolute mortal locks.

During the remainder of the preseason, I am going to go region by region for both the AFC/NFC combined, and give you a rundown on each NFL team and where I think they likely end up this year. It is going to be an ongoing series looking at key factors that play into betting on the 2022 NFL win totals. I’ll be focusing on key free agency additions, incoming draft classes, strength of schedule, and more. My hope is to not just give you the best possible picks available (for free I must add) but also offer you a refresher for the upcoming 2022 season.

Start Your Engines

Not only will you get optimal advice for over-under on every team’s win total, but hopefully this will also give you a better understanding of betting each team week to week, so you can get a head start this fall. Don’t get it twisted, the main point of this all… bankrupt that damn bookie. Before I give you the picks, all the odds for the 2022 NFL win totals for the season were from DraftKings Sportsbook.

This NFL offseason was so spicy and no one was safe. Player mobility has increased massively over the last couple of seasons, but this last one was unparallel to any other before. Some may say this would bring more obstacles when previewing each team and to that, I say bring it on.

With so many players switching teams it was hard to choose which region to preview first. But one region brought out the red carpet for the NFL stars all over the country to come. This region had the highest average on the 2022 NFL win totals for the season around 9 and it’s no surprise. These teams are absolutely stacked and I believe going to have the most thrilling divisional games this year. Most of these teams have big-time quarterback play and offensive firepower that would blow the roof off some stadiums. Let me introduce you to the NFC/AFC West.

Los Angeles Rams Win Total Over/Under 10.5 -105/-115

Schedule:

Strength: 1st out of 32 (per CBS)

Home: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos, and Las Vegas Raiders

Away: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Chargers

Notable Acquisitions:

Bobby Wagner (LB), Allen Robinson (WR), Troy Hill (CB), Logan Bruss (OL)

Notable Departures:

Robert Woods (WR), Von Miller (EDGE), Austin Corbett (OL), Darious Williams (CB), Andrew Wintworth (OL)

The Pick: Over 10.5 -105

Not only do the Super Bowl champs have the hardest schedule out there, but they also have a ginormous target on their back. No matter the stage of the season and the state of the team, every opponent will have that game circled. The Rams will get everyone’s best effort week in and week out.

With all that being said, give me the over on the Rams. The second season with Stafford in McVay’s system will be fireworks. They looked like they were just getting into the groove of things during the playoffs last year. Yes, although they did lose Woods, and most likely will lose Odell as well, this team is just scratching the surface. With that being said, grabbing a motivated Allen Robinson will help alleviate those losses.

The acquisition of Bobby Wagner is an incredible addition. Getting a linebacker of his stature to anchor the middle of the defense is a phenomenal free agent get. Don’t forget the future Hall of Famer was a perennial All-Pro selection, having six first-team and two second-team selections since 2014. The Rams already were a frightening defense and now they add an absolute stud that will keep opposing Quarterbacks shaking in their sheets at night.

My last point about this pick is that the Rams have nine home games this year and one of their away games is vs the Chargers. Essentially the Super Bowl Champs have ten home games this season. This is an easy pick for me and I think the Rams easily reach the 11 or 12 win threshold.

San Francisco 49ers Win Total Over/Under 10 +100/-120

Schedule:

Strength: T-5th out of 32 (per CBS)

Home: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Washington Commanders

Away: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, and Las Vegas Raiders

Notable Acquisitions:

Charvarius Ward (CB), Drake Jackson (DL), Tyrion Davis-Price (RB)

Notable Departures:

Laken Tomlinson (OL), D.J. Jones (DL), Jaquiski Tartt (S)

The Pick: Under 10 -120

This pick was a little harder for me to dissect. Anyone that says they know who the 49ers will have behind center in Week 1 is blatantly spewing nonsense and just wants to see the world burn. The 49ers had an interesting season last year finishing 10-7 which surged a remarkable playoff run that ended up short vs division rivals, LA Rams.

All things considered, I would say 49ers fans would be happy with their past season, with high hopes going into 2022. My issue with them is that I don’t know what to think. There is a cloud of uncertainty that hangs around this team whether it be with the QB situation or what to do with Deebo Samuel’s contract.

Losing Laken Tomlinson is a very underrated loss as the 49ers have proven time and time again that they are a run heavy offense (who do not care about your fantasy football team) and only pass the ball when in dire need. They don’t know who to trust at QB and during the Shannahan coaching period, they have been widely inconsistent.

When it comes down to it all I think the 49ers just have too hard of a schedule and I believe they will be throwing a young quarterback into the fire. Jimmy G is no superstar by any means but his consistency over the years has boded well for the 49ers. I’ll take the under here and feel pretty good with this number, assuming Trey Lance and the 49ers don’t get more than 10 total wins.

While the transition to Lance may be what they need for the future, I do worry about the short-term outlook it could play for the 49ers in season one.

Arizona Cardinals Win Total Over/Under 8.5 -105/-115

Schedule:

Strength: 2nd out of 32 (per CBS)

Home: Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, and New England Patriots

Away: Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos, and Minnesota Vikings

Notable Acquisitions:

Marquise Brown (WR), Will Hernandez (OL), Trey McBride (TE), Cameron Thomas (EDGE), Myjai Sanders (EDGE)

Notable Departures:

Jordan Hicks (LB), Chandler Jones (EDGE), Christian Kirk (WR), Chase Edmonds (RB)

The Pick: Under 8.5 -115

This pick was very easy for me to decide. The Cardinals year in and year out will be the team that everyone says should be on your radar as a Super Bowl dark horse. With an MVP player like Kyler at the helm and an offense with a multitude of weapons, it makes sense why everyone gets excited. But I hate to break it to you Arizona fans, your head coach is going to be the death of you.

Every year Kliff and the offense start off hot and everyone starts dreaming like it’s 2008 again. The reality of it though is that when it matters most Kliff shrivels up like a turtle and hides inside of his shell. He doesn’t win big games past Thanksgiving and everyone during December finally decides to label them as frauds.

The above graphic shows everything you need to know about Kliff and his Cardinals coaching career. Additionally, losing Pro Bowl Pass Rusher, Chandler Jones, and starting Middle Linebacker, Hicks is not an ideal situation to be in. They are also without Christian Kirk who flocked over to Jacksonville and DeAndre Hopkins who has been suspended for the first six games for violating the NFL PED policy. I didn’t even mention the drama with Kyler’s contract situation. UPDATE! The Cardinals heard me and gave Kyler the BAG!

The Cardinals have a great QB who is arguably the most versatile in the league at making plays with his legs and arm. But remember, the last two years the Cardinals had a cupcake schedule as a team who finished last in their division. This year they have the second hardest schedule in the league and can’t bank on starting the season hot with six wins in their first ten games. I like the under in this spot and think that this will be the last year we see Kyler with Kliff.

Seattle Seahawks Win Total Over/Under 5.5 -140/+120

Schedule:

Strength: 11 out of 32 (per CBS)

Home: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, and New York Jets

Away: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and Detroit Lions

Notable Acquisitions:

Charles Cross (OL), Boye Mafe (LB), Ken Walker III (RB), Abraham Lucas (OL), Shelby Harris (DL), Uchenna Nwosu (EDGE), Quinton Jefferson (DL), Drew Lock (QB), Noah Fant (TE)

Notable Departures:

Russell Wilson (QB), Bobby Wagner (LB), Gerald Everett (TE), D.J. Reed (CB)

The Pick: Under 5.5 +120

I genuinely feel bad for the people of Seattle. They have some of the most passionate fans in the game and they don’t deserve what is about to happen to them this year. They lost the face of their franchise, quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. He made their franchise functionable the past five years, keeping them barely treading above water. Now with him gone their starting quarterback is going to be Drew Lock.

Now, Drew Lock, I get it he’s a professional football player who deserves some respect but let’s be honest. People know Drew Lock for two things. First, for his famous rapping on the sidelines when everyone crowned him the future great QB of Denver.

Second, when the admin of the US Open Twitter account chose violence and violated this Seattle fan with one tweet.

I mean it really cannot get any worse for the Seahawks this offseason. They have arguably lost the best offensive and defensive players in their Franchise’s history in the same offseason. Russell Wilsons and Bobby Wagners don’t grow on trees and I think Seattle is going to learn that the hard way this season.

I would be utterly shocked if the Hawks won a single division game this season. Drew Lock is going to get exposed and I bet before the season’s end we will see a trade request put in by their star WR DK Metcalf. He is going to be frustrated this season and everyone in the league is going to try and pry him away from Seattle.

Also, don’t be shocked if Pete Carroll checks out this year. He’s the oldest coach in the league and in the middle of a colossal rebuild. Why would he want to stay for longer than one more year? This year is going to be hard to watch Seattle fans. There will be times you want to punch your TV into a new stratosphere. Just remember the good times with the Legion of Boom. Don’t think about how you wasted the end of Wilson’s career. Hammer the under.

Kansas City Chiefs Win Total Over/Under 10.5 -115/-105

Schedule:

Strength: T-5th out of 32 (per CBS)

Home: Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Tennessee Titans

Away: Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Notable Acquisitions:

Justin Reid (S), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR), JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR), Trent McDuffie (CB), George Karlaftis (EDGE), Skyy Moore (WR), Bryan Cook (S)

Notable Departures:

Tyreek Hill (WR), Charvarious Ward (CB), Tyrann Mathieu (S), Daniel Sorensen (S), Melvin Ingram (EDGE)

The Pick: Over 10.5 -115

The Chiefs for the majority of the 2021 season were considered one the best teams in the league. They had an offense that was hitting on all cylinders and a defense that would force opportune turnovers. Overall, the Chiefs were a top five and top ten scoring offense and defense respectively.

This offseason saw a lot of movement on both sides of the ball. Most notably was the departure of All Pro WR Tyreek Hill. He has made a lot of noise in the media lately praising his new QB while taking some soft jabs at Mahomes in the process.

Listen, I am not as much of a follower of the Mahomes gospel as most. This is a fact some of you may know from my 2021 AFC Championship preview. But, I know he is a Hall of Fame (HOF) talent and for Tyreek to even put Tua’s name in the same sentence is blasphemy.

They also lost some key pieces on defense losing both starting safeties. However, the Kansas Chiefs did not take long to reload adding a couple of WRs via Free Agency and the Draft. The Chiefs also got a replacement for The Honey Badger with Justin Reid. Not to mention a couple of picks from the Dolphins which coupled with their own first rounder, got themselves a pair of defensive players in the first round.

This pick is easy for me and I think this line is very faulty. Mahomes and Andy Reid have gotten 12, 12, 14, and 12 wins in their four years together. This line is a measly 10.5. Just like I would never fade Brady and Belichick, I also strongly believe fading Mahomes and Reid now is a similar death sentence. Due to that duo and their home field advantage, I expect the Chiefs to handle business and hit the over.

Los Angeles Chargers Win Total Over/Under 10 -135/+115

Schedule:

Strength: 10th out of 32 (per CBS)

Home: Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Rams,

Away: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and San Francisco 49ers

Notable Acquisitions:

Khalil Mack (EDGE), J.C. Jackson (CB), Zion Johnson (OL), Gerald Everett (TE), Sebastian Joseph-Day (DL), Kyle Van Noy (EDGE), Austin Johnson (DL)

Notable Departures:

Uchenna Nwosu (EDGE), Justin Jones (DL)

The Pick: Over 10 -135

The Chargers. A tale as old as time. I can tell you one thing about the Chargers. They are everyone’s Super Bowl dark horse. I mean what is a dark horse pick anymore? They’re 6th in Super Bowl Winner odds on Draft Kings and have an over/under win total of 10. Stop saying the Chargers are your sleeper team.

I’m talking to you, Colin Cowherd. Don’t compare them to the Bengals of last year. Those are completely different situations and frankly, it takes credit away from the Bengals. What the Bengals did was a big “F U” to all the sportsbooks in Vegas.

All things considered, they aren’t sleepers. Currently, the Chargers have a top five roster with all sorts of talent at skill positions. They added studs like CB J.C. Jackson and EDGE rusher, Khalil Mack, to an already respectable defense. Oh yeah, and above all, they have a superstar QB by the name of Justin Herbert.

He has shown us everything we would want to see out of a young QB in his first two years. Herbert is going to be one of the bets I take for MVP this year and I advise everyone to join me. Surprisingly even with all this talent, the Chargers have not made it to the playoffs in either year. That trend is not going to continue.

Provided that Head Coach Brandon Staley tones it down with the 4th down attempts, I love the over. I know some people may think I am joking but this is a serious matter that Charger fans had to deal with last year. Their fans were left to die in Vegas after going for it on 4th one time too many.

Justin Herbert is a generational talent and this team is building around his rookie contract the right way. They are without a doubt giving him the keys to the castle and I don’t see Herbert shying away from the spotlight. Take the over and grab a victory cigar while you’re out this is inevitable.

Denver Broncos Win Total Over/Under 10 -120/+100

Schedule:

Strength: 15th out of 32 (per CBS)

Home: Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Away: Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans

Notable Acquisitions:

Russell Wilson (QB), Randy Gregory (EDGE), D.J. Jones (DL), Nik Bonitto (LB)

Notable Departures:

Noah Fant (TE), Kyle Fuller (CB), Shelby Harris (DL)

The Pick: Over 10 -120

Earlier in this preview, we looked at the team that went total rebuild and gave up QB Russell Wilson. Now, on the opposite side of the spectrum, we have the team that went all in. All of a sudden Denver goes from Lock under center to future HOF QB Russell Wilson. This is one of the biggest glow ups in sports. We have seen some crazy QB moves over the past decade and this one could shift the power in the AFC for years to come.

Russell Wilson is one of the most disrespected QBs of this generation. In my eyes over the past five years, when he is healthy he has been the third best QB in the league behind Brady and Mahomes. Despite having one of the worst rosters in the league Wilson continued to will the Hawks to the postseason post-Legion of Boom era.

In comparison, Denver has always had a talented roster over the years but they were missing one major tool. Consistent QB play. When the Broncos brought in Peyton Manning we saw a city rally around the new QB and help rejuvenate their career. I see a similar outcome here for Russell.

The Broncos have gifted players on both sides of the football and didn’t lose too many pieces. The addition of Russell Wilson will go down as the MVP transaction of the offseason. Even more, they have an easier schedule than most teams in their division after going 7-10 in 2021. In conclusion, the Broncos are going to let Russ Cook and this is going to be a no sweat over. Take the over and trust me, you’ll be laughing all the way to the bank.

Las Vegas Raiders Win Total Over/Under 8.5 -120/+100

Schedule:

Strength: T-7th out of 32 (per CBS)

Home: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and San Francisco 49ers

Away: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, and Tennessee Titans

Notable Acquisitions:

Davante Adams (WR), Chandler Jones (EDGE), Duron Harmon (S), Bilal Nichols (DL)

Notable Departures:

Yannick Ngakoue (EDGE), Quinton Jefferson (DL)

The Pick: Under 8.5

This is one of the saddest picks for me. I really love watching the Las Vegas Raiders play. Everything they went through last year was incredible. Derek Carr put his balls on the table and shut up all the haters. They lost two first round picks and a Head Coach in the middle of the year. Rather than give up and roll over the Raiders fought through adversity and snuck into the playoffs.

In my opinion, they added the best WR in the league to their team with Davante Adams. Adams was once a college teammate of Carr’s, and now the two are finally reunited at the professional level. They might have the best receiving trio in the league with Adams, Waller, and Renfrow. In addition, they brought in Chandler Jones who was a double digit sack artist last season. Given all these points, you would think I would be all obsessed with their over on wins.

However, there is one piece of this puzzle I am not obsessed with. New Head Coach Josh McDaniels. Now Josh was a critical part of the success of the Patriots dynasty and I will always love him for the role he played. That being said I don’t know if he is a reliable NFL Head Coach. The Belichick coaching tree doesn’t have the best track record post, Bill. Do we really think this trend changes this year? In what most consider the hardest division in football?

That coupled with one of the harder schedules in the NFL makes me lean the under. I love what the Raiders are building and just think one team has to hit the under in this division. I just believe a little more in the other teams. If I am wrong on this I will get accept any form of reasonable punishment from Vegas fans. This includes going to Vegas and having to win a ticket back home on the roulette table. Oh, the horror!

Where Can You Find More From Peter?

Well, this concludes our first article of this four-part series. I hope you enjoyed and consider following the picks. If you don’t follow or at least tell me you faded then shame on you.

For more content regarding gambling and fantasy insights, follow me on Twitter! I’m not an ass and love talking sports any chance I can get! I’ll engage in almost any debate but the sports I am most passionate about are the NFL, NBA, and Soccer. Check out my previous sports betting and other blogs! For more sports and fantasy content follow Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports or check out the Belly Up Fantasy Sports site!

Related Posts

Week Eleven Fantasy Football Starts/Sits

November 15, 2024

Week Ten Fantasy Football Starts/Sits

November 8, 2024

About Belly Up Fantasy & Picks

“Some said we’d go ‘Belly Up,’ so we made it our name – and we’re still here.”

We are what they aren’t. (Follow us now @BellyUpFantasy)

Staff Login