Thursday, November 21, 2024

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Fantasy Baseball Trade Market Analysis

Without doubt, all fantasy managers are aware that the league trading deadline passed two weeks ago. However, what many of those same managers may not realize is that the fantasy deadline for trades arrives this week, at least in ESPN leagues. That deadline is Friday at noon est. Those that want to get involved in the trade market have to act fast. Of course, knowing who to trade for or away is critical. Make the wrong move and the roster could be vulnerable with only a few weeks to go before the fantasy playoffs begin. However, there is no need to worry, as this fantasy baseball trade market analysis edition will help make those decisions easier. As time is short, not another second will be wasted, and we dive right in!

Players to Trade For

Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

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For those looking for a steady starting pitcher, they don’t come much steadier than Merrill Kelly. Coming off of a start in which he allowed three runs on four hits with three walks in five innings against Pittsburgh, that wouldn’t seem to be the case. However, take just a small glance on what Kelly has accomplished since the beginning of June and it is clear the fantasy value he can bring to a roster. Over his last 11 starts prior to Thursday, Kelly pitched at least six innings in each. In fact, Kelly pitched into the seventh inning in seven of the starts. That is consistency fantasy managers can rely on down the stretch.

For the season entering this week, Kelly is 10-5 with an outstanding 2.95 ERA and a 1.136 WHIP. His win-loss record is amazing considering the team he pitches for. Kelly has allowed just 114 hits in 137.1 innings. All of the important stats for Kelly are improved over last year, and his SLG, OPS, HR%, HardH% and LD% are all the lowest of his career. He really isn’t a strikeout pitcher with 115, but that is the only downside Kelly has.

An added bonus is that since he is a veteran pitcher, Kelly will not face any innings restrictions as the season winds down and the fantasy playoffs begin. Add it all together and Kelly is a pitcher that is well worth making a move on. Make an offer and if accepted, a fantasy pitching staff will become much deeper.

Yu Darvish, SP, San Diego Padres

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Without question, there are quite a few fantasy managers that just aren’t sure what to do with Yu Darvish. If the manager who owns him in your league is one of them, the time is right to make an offer. Darvish is coming off a disappointing outing against the lowly Washington Nationals in which he allowed four runs on seven hits in six innings. He was tagged with the loss in the game, his second straight losing effort. Of course, losing to the worst team in the league is a bad look for any pitcher, especially one pitching for such a loaded team as the Padres. There is value, here, however, and the savvy manager just may find a way to sneak Darvish on the roster.

First, Darvish knows how to pitch deep into games. In 22 starts this season, Darvish has pitched into the sixth inning in all but one, and that was his second start of the season. Second, he knows how to win games. Before the two-game losing streak, Darvish won six of his previous seven decisions. Third, he is a strikeout pitcher, with 141 in 140.1 innings pitched. Fourth, as a ten-year veteran, he can be counted on to take the ball and pitch deep into the game every start. Lastly, as stated earlier, Darvish pitches for a loaded team.

His stats all show improvement, as his OBP, SLG, OPS, HR% and BB% are all better than last year. Find out what the manager that has him needs and make an offer. If agreed upon, Darvish will vastly improve any pitching staff. Making a trade for Darvish couldn’t come any more highly recommended on this fantasy baseball trade market analysis edition.

Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox

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When last seen on a baseball field, Luis Robert had two hits, finishing up a stretch in which he had hits in seven of eight games. Unfortunately, that was the last sighting of Robert, as he hasn’t played since, as of this writing, due to a wrist sprain. The White Sox insist that a stint on the injured list will not be required for Robert, but he has missed all of Chicago’s games since the incident Friday. His manager may be getting a little antsy and could be talking into making a deal. With that thought in mind, it is time for a wise owner to get creative and strike a deal. The reason? Let’s recall what Robert did coming down the stretch last season.

Last September, Robert had hits in 21 games, with 11 with at least two hits. Additionally, he hit seven homers. A torrid stretch, no doubt. Robert is certainly capable of repeating those results and is worth trading a couple of pitchers to acquire. This season, Robert putting up fine stats, with a .301-12-56 and .336/.454/.790 batting lines. Further, his SO% is the lowest of his career and he has added 11 steals.

The injury risk seems minimal which the potential benefits far out weight. Reach out to whomever owns him in your league. As stated, there could be anxiety present in that manager. Acquiring Robert could greatly enhance a deep playoff run. Don’t delay, make contact today.

Jorge Mateo, 2B/SS/OF, Baltimore Orioles

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It has to be said right up front that the possibility exists that Jorge Mateo may be on some league’s waiver wire. If that is the case is your league, take a moment from this fantasy baseball trade market analysis edition and go get him! For the rest of us, however, making a trade will be necessary to bring this multi position, multi-talented player to the roster. If speed kills, Mateo definitely burns the competition, as he leads the American League with 27 steals. Those concerned about his .232 BA can relax, as his .303 BAbip is far below the .359 Mateo produced for Baltimore after coming over from the Padres a year ago.

Best of all, since August rolled around, Mateo has been as hot as anyone. In 13 games this month, Mateo has hits in ten of them, including three two-hit games. However, it is the game on August 12 that really shows what Mateo is capable of. On that day against the Rays, Mateo went 5-5, with two doubles, two RBIs and two runs scored. It is almost certain that those in cats leagues don’t have the steals that a manager would like. A single trade for Mateo can change all of that.

In the rest of fantasy leagues, Mateo’s multi position eligibility and the bat skills he has shown this month makes a strong lineup that much better. Make an offer for Mateo today. You will certainly be glad you did.

Players to Trade Away

Sean Manaea, SP, San Diego Padres

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Unlike his Padres teammate above, Sean Manaea has gone down the wrong side of the freeway of late. In his last nine innings, Manaea has allowed 12 earned runs on 16 hits. The Dodgers really lit him up in his August 5th start against them, as he gave up eight runs in just four innings. That is a huge change from the beginning of the season where he gave up three runs or fewer in nine of his first 11 starts, including four starts of one or fewer runs allowed. For the season, Manaea has a 6-6 record with an inflated 4.76 ERA and a 1.328 WHIP. His saving grace is that he is a strikeout pitcher, as his 122 Ks in 119 innings clearly demonstrates.

Without question, playing up his strikeout potential and his early season record would be a smart choice while trying to trade him. In addition, Manaea had a strong season a year ago, as he led the A.L. in starts, complete games and shutouts. His batted ball stats are pretty equal to a year ago, suggesting that with a little luck, Manaea will improve down the stretch. Perhaps there is another owner in the league that needs a boost in pitching depth that has a hitter that would make your team more complete.

No doubt, Manaea is making it easy to want to deal him, as he didn’t pitch well against Miami Tuesday, giving up three earned in four innings. Trading a veteran pitcher on a competitive team is always a risk. Even so, if there is a player that can improve the team out there in the league, making such a deal would be good strategy on this fantasy baseball trade market analysis edition.

Devin Williams, RP, Milwaukee Brewers

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Is there a team in baseball that shook up a key element of the team at the trade deadline like the Milwaukee Brewers? If so, that team won’t come to mind. Milwaukee traded away super reliever Josh Hader to the Padres for their closer Taylor Rogers. In a separate deal, the team also brought in reliever Matt Bush from the Texas Rangers. All of this leads to question of what exactly to do with Devin Williams? There was much speculation at the time of the trades that Williams would be installed as the closer. However, the Brewers have indicated that the team intends to go with a closer by committee approach. That being the case kills all three player’s fantasy value, including Williams’.

It would certainly seem clear from Williams’ ratios that he should be the closer. He has a stellar 1.59 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and an out of this world strikeout/walk ratio of 71/99 through 45.1 innings. At the same time, it looks as if Milwaukee hasn’t received that memo as they haven’t given Williams the role. The bullpen situation is in a word, fluid. The Brewers seem set on giving save chances to all three pitchers. That is not attractive for any of them, especially in leagues that do not honor holds.

While it is true that Williams may well get established as the closer, it is equally true that he may not. By the time it is sorted out, the trade deadline will have passed. If someone in the league buys Williams as the closer going forward, a deal can be made. Clarity on a staff is important in the fantasy playoffs. Making the deal while Williams is still a hot name in relief circles is the recommended course of action.

Austin Hays, OF, Baltimore Orioles

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Another player that started the season on fire only to fade of late is Austin Hays. The month of August has been especially brutal for Hays, as he has missed games and not been very productive when he has played. In the month, Hays has hits in just four games, with a single RBI and four runs scored to his name. He is currently in a 0-12 stretch. That is a far cry from the beginning of the season to the end of July for Hays. On August 1st, Hays had 12 homers, 48 RBIs, 24 doubles and 49 runs scored. Hays then entered the no-hit zone and hasn’t been seen since.

Even so, his ownership rate is high at 78.9%. Making on move on Hays before he stumbles even further would be a prudent move. All of his stats are right in line with last season’s when he hit 22 homers with 71 RBIs. The Orioles are surprisingly in the thick of the wild card race and Hays will be a fixture in their lineup for the foreseeable future. Play up the angle that Hays was nearly an All-Star this season, is a veteran player in an above average batting order.

Perhaps another manager in the league will take the bait. If Hays does continue to slide, he may well wind up on the waiver wire with nothing to show for it. Deal him now before that happens is the clear path on this fantasy baseball trade market analysis edition.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B/SS/DH, Seattle Mariners

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Watching the Seattle Mariners fit for a playoff spot the past couple of seasons has been wonderful. After all, we are talking about a team that hasn’t made the postseason since 2001. That is the longest playoff drought in American sports. Obviously, it would great to see them break through. However, they have made this push while Eugenio Suarez has fallen off a cliff in the batter’s box. In his last 12 games, Suarez has had no hits in nine of them. He has a single home run, four RBIs and six runs scored. Even worse, he leads the league with 156 strikeouts, continuing a trend of the last few years. Suarez does have nice totals of 19 homers and 61 RBIs.

However, most of that damage was done by the middle of July. Quite a few fantasy managers were not sold on Suarez entering the season, with good reason. Suarez brought many of them around with a solid first half and received the benefits of doing so. Those happy times are in the past, though. It seems that quite a few are still believing in Suarez, as he maintains an ownership percentage of nearly 60 percent. Even so. a heavy dose of strikeouts will drag down a team in points leagues.

Don’t allow a player like Suarez to doom a playoff season. The home runs he has will attract attention. Shine a spotlight on that stat and move him before, like Hays above, he winds up on the wire with zero return to show for it.

The Final Word

Thank you for joining me for this fantasy baseball trade market analysis edition! As always, I welcome any and all suggestions, comments and input from my readers. Have players to add to the list? Let’s discuss! Follow me on twitter @kevin62wilsea. Please feel free to share this article. Check out the latest Belly Up Fantasy Live Baseball Show available here. Tune in for the show every Sunday night at 8 PM EST. Be sure to turn to Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports for the MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL happenings and all the latest sports news!