Wednesday, November 06, 2024

Fantasy Football, Featured

2022 Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Preview

The preseason is in full swing and Belly Up Fantasy Sports is previewing each NFL team’s fantasy prospects. We’re giving you all the intel you need to dominate your draft and win your league. Let’s take a look at the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. SKOL!

Note: All 2021 fantasy point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted.

2022 Minnesota Vikings Preview: Quarterback

You like that! You like that! Right?” Actually, yes. Yes I do, Kirk. And I’m a Packer fan.

A new front office and a new coaching staff means the 2022 Minnesota Vikings will look much different than the 2021 version. One thing that won’t change (yet) is the quarterback. Despite some less-than-encouraging rhetoric from General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Kirk Cousins will return under center. Seemingly on a hot seat almost from his arrival in Minnesota, Cousins is now out from under Mike Zimmer’s disapproving gaze. New Head Coach Kevin O’Connell brings a new offense to town, but one not wholly unfamiliar to Cousins, as O’Connell’s offense is ultimately a derivative of Mike Shanahan‘s system.

Cousins seems to be undervalued and underappreciated as a fantasy quarterback every year. He’s finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in three of the last four seasons. This comes after three straight top-eight finishes as the fulltime starter in Washington. Currently, Cousins ranks 14th in FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings. You can get him in the 10th or 11th round with an ADP of 109 (QB15 off the board.) While bigger names and running quarterbacks get more of the love, Cousins continues to show up. Not only does he have one of the top wide receiver tandems in the league, but a dynamic pass catching running back in Dalvin Cook. The return of tight end Irv Smith Jr. should only boost Cousins’ prospects.

Quarterback Bottom Line

In my initial draft rankings, I have Cousins ranked at QB12, a startable option. Look no further than the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive success the past few seasons under O’Connell for a preview of what the Vikings’ pass game could resemble. I see no reason why Cousins should regress this season. Lately, I’ve been grabbing him as a starter late in redrafts if I miss out on one of the Tier One quarterback options. Rather than panic-grabbing a mid-range quarterback too early, stockpile talent elsewhere. Cousins will return at least starter value, and has a nice ceiling in this offense. You can use the talent you acquired waiting on him to upgrade at other positions in trades, or package with him to upgrade QB. He’s a stud QB2 in Superflex or Best Ball formats, and can be a cheaper option in DFS if you play the matchups right.

2022 Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Preview: Running Back

A healthy Dalvin Cook is a scary sight for opposing defenses, and a welcome one for fantasy managers.

Dalvin Cook has dominated at every level of competition. His speed and power allow him to run between the tackles and make him ultra-dangerous in space. Dangerous in the pass game in addition to his rushing prowess, he can be used in any situation. Every touch is a chance to go the distance. He is the type of player around whom opposing defenses have to game plan. His on-field dominance has translated to fantasy superstardom, with several top-10 fantasy finishes at the running back position.

Unfortunately for Cook and fantasy managers, the “on-field” part of that equation has been a tricky variable…

Running Back Bottom Line

By now, we’ve probably all been buoyed and burned by Cook. He’s missed 25 games over his five-year career due to a litany of injuries that would make even the Black Knight take pause. That amounts to over 30 percent of his career thus far. Yeah, if whoever has the Dalvin voodoo doll could just put it down for a minute, that’d be great. Cook played 14 games in each of the 2019-20 seasons, resulting in finishes of RB6 and RB2 overall. Like Cousins, he should thrive in O’Connell’s system, but only if he can stay healthy. I have him ranked at RB6 currently, but he’s capable of much more. 50 receptions, 1,600 total yards and double-digit touchdowns is a realistic floor if Cook can remain upright and available.

As for the rest of the backfield, we’ve seen before that Alexander Mattison may be one of the top handcuff options in fantasy. That has more to do with absorbing Cook’s usage rates when called upon, and less to do with his talent. Barring a Cook injury, he’s not a stand-alone value in any format, but makes a sneaky pick later in drafts if you can snipe him before the Cook owner has a chance. The Vikings can move on from both Cook and Mattison after this season. As such, Kene Nwangwu and Ty Chandler both carry intriguing Dynasty value. Between the two, I like Chandler better as the heir-apparent to Cook, but both are rosterable.

2022 Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Preview: Wide Receiver

Breaking: They’re good. Moving right along…

2022 Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Preview: Tight End

Irv Smith will bring a new facet to the 2022 Minnesota Vikings’ pass offense.

The hype was real for Irv Smith going into the 2021 season. With the Vikings’ long-term TE1 Kyle Rudolph in the Big Apple and no longer blocking his path, Smith was a trendy breakout candidate as the new top dog at tight end in Minnesota. Smith was coming off a season where he averaged over 2.29 points per target. With the Vikings’ deep receiving corps limiting opposing defenses’ coverage options for him, Smith looked to see plenty of work up the seam and underneath matched up on linebackers. Then came the preseason finale against Kansas City. Smith would suffer a torn meniscus that would cost him the entire season.

Tight End Bottom Line

Looking again at O’Connell’s previous team, we can put together a realistic (if rosy) outlook for Smith’s prospects. While his best year (2019-TE8 overall) came before O’Connell’s hiring, Tyler Higbee saw 85 targets a year ago. If Smith can get 80 or so targets, he realistically could score over 175 fantasy points at his efficiency. That puts him squarely in starting fantasy tight end range, with top-five upside. Young enough to be a long-term answer at tight end in Dynasty, Smith is a great value for those waiting on the position in redraft. Currently going in the 12th-14th rounds as the overall TE15, taking Smith allows you to build depth at other positions while still having a great ceiling and not punting on tight end completely. He’ll be a good option in DFS formats, with a sky-high ceiling for much less than the Kelces and Pitts of the world.

Wide Receiver Revisited

Yes, we see you, JJ. Griddy away.

You didn’t really think we’d skip over one of the league’s most interesting position groups, did you? Minnesota boasts one of the NFL’s strongest three-deep wide receiver rooms, led by arguably the best receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson. His rookie season, Jefferson finished as 2020’s overall WR6. He promptly went out and improved that standing, finishing as WR4 in his sophomore campaign. While Jefferson was hitting the Griddy, all Adam Thielen could muster was a *checks notes* overall WR10 finish in 2020. Thielen’s 2021 numbers don’t impress, until you realize that had he not missed four games, he would have finished in solid WR2 territory, with even three more games at his scoring pace putting him somewhere around Mike Williams/Jaylen Waddle/DK Metcalf territory with 240+ points on the year. Oh, yeah, KJ Osborn caught seven touchdowns while averaging over 13 yards a catch.

Wide Receiver Bottom Line

Between O’Connell’s arrival and what Jefferson has already shown, enthusiasm for the superstar is at a fever pitch. With an overall first round ADP of five (WR1 overall!), you’ll have to pay through the nose for his services (not that he’s not worth it.) Recent seasons have seen first round running backs bust at incredible rates. There’s something to be said for zigging when others keep zagging. I’m not a big fan of the Zero-RB strategy, but if you’re bold enough to commit to it, Jefferson is a great start to your roster, as he’s almost assured of a top-four finish at receiver (last year’s WR4 finish put him 11th overall, much closer to round one value than most of the top-tier running backs.) Even if you’re not planning on Zero-RB, Jefferson looks like a top-10 pick. Wherever you can get him, he’s going to pay off handsomely.

Just when you think Thielen is aging out of his fantasy starter-status, you turn around and there he is- useful as ever, returning top-24 value. While I’m a little lower (maybe too low on second thought) on him in my initial draft rankings, I’m also not going to count him out by any means. We know the quarterback and offense can sustain two startable fantasy receivers. If target shares look at all like they have, Thielen ultimately profiles as a good WR3/4, but with WR2 upside. If Osborn gets a bigger piece of the target share pie, last year’s overall WR40 probably still falls in that same WR3/4 range. Improving on last year’s 61 percent catch rate, however, could easily see Osborn rise to top-30 or better. He’s a nice target in Dynasty formats, with super redraft/DFS value in the event of an injury to either of the Big Two.

2022 Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Preview: Peripherals

Minnesota finished as DST10 last year, though that was mostly on the strength of a league-leading two kick return touchdowns and a sack total (51) that may be tough to duplicate. The Vikings gave up 426 points- far more than any of the other top-10 defenses. In fact, that was more than all but six other teams total. In a division that still boasts Aaron Rodgers and a potential sleeping offensive juggernaut in Detroit, plus games against Philadelphia, New Orleans, Arizona, Miami, Buffalo, Dallas, and Indianapolis, the Vikings figure to give up a ton of points again in 2022. Monitor the pass rush early in the season to see if they will ultimately hold value as a streaming option. Otherwise, they can be left on the wire.

Greg Joseph made over 86 percent of his field goal attempts last season. That was right in line with what he showed over his first two years in the league. Minnesota plays 11 games indoors this season. The offense is capable of scoring in bunches. It’s easy to see him matching or improving upon his 149 points scored. He’ll be a fine kicker on your roster, and has an early bye week to boot (pun intended.)

Dominate Draft Season!

Remember to check Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy analysis and entertaining insight. Rankings, team previews, strategies, and even betting advice will help you cash in this fantasy season! As always, more great NFL coverage is available on the main Belly Up site, as well as fun, informative content on the Belly Up Podcast Network, Belly Up TV, and B.U.R.N.S. Radio. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast each week.

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