Tuesday, November 05, 2024

Fantasy Football, Featured

2022 Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 kicks off in less than two weeks. We are deep in Draft Season, and Belly Up Fantasy Sports is previewing each NFL team’s fantasy prospects. We’re giving you all the intel you need to dominate your draft and win your league. Hey, Twelves, avert your eyes. No, it’s not a “Color Rush” home game in the Emerald City. It’s our 2022 Seattle Seahawks fantasy preview. (We kid, we kid.)

Note: All 2021 fantasy point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted.

2022 Seattle Seahawks Preview: Quarterback

Drew Lock watching from the background while Geno Smith takes snaps? Sounds about right.

After on-and-off speculation surrounded the Seahawks’ star quarterback for several seasons, Russell Wilson officially has a new home. The Seahawks moved on from the only quarterback to win a Super Bowl in the Pacific Northwest this offseason. Don’t call it a “rebuild” around Pete Carroll, but the Seahawks are now starting over with a “new” quarterback. Seattle named 31-year-old ex-New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith as its starter after a training camp position battle between him and Drew Lock, six years Smith’s junior but, like Smith, a former second-round pick. Lock was part of the haul from the Wilson trade, and there was much speculation that the Seahawks were hoping he would prove himself the quarterback of the future. Or the immediate future, at least. Alas, the best-laid plans of mice and men…and Seahawks.

Quarterback Bottom Line

There was never going to be a good fantasy outcome from this position battle. Either option between Smith and Lock is a massive downgrade from Wilson. But it’s Smith’s job now, and we’ll have to work with what we’re given. Smith has never been a very accurate passer in the NFL. His career completion percentage is under 60. He has more career interceptions than touchdown passes (although the bulk of that came in his rookie season). He doesn’t throw the deep ball very well or often. And he’s not the runner he used to be, though that’s never really been a big part of his style of play. Carroll cited Smith’s knowledge of the offense, decision-making, and conscientious effort to limit turnovers as primary reasons for Smith holding off Lock for the top spot.

In all, we’re looking at a mediocre veteran quarterback with a low floor and a very limited ceiling. He’s also the quarterback for a decidedly run-first team. This will be the most talented skill position group Smith has ever played with, however. While his lack of downfield prowess doesn’t bode well for the Seahawks’ talented receiving duo of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, his penchant for checking down may actually benefit whichever of Seattle’s running backs can remain healthy and in the lineup. If Smith can manage the offense and not turn the ball over, there will still be opportunities for the Seahawks on your rosters. Smith will be ranked as QB32 in my next set of rankings; avoid him if possible. Lock is still worth keeping around in Dynasty, as this may be his job at some point. In the meantime, 2023 looks like a strong quarterback class…

2022 Seattle Seahawks Preview: Running Back

Can Rashaad Penny finally take control of the Seattle backfield?

Quarterback isn’t the only position on the roster that will have a new look in Seattle this season. Injuries finally caught all the way up to long-time top RB Chris Carter. Carter retired this offseason after five years with the Seahawks due to the neck injury that ended his season in 2021. Perennially injured second-fiddle Rashaad Penny takes over as the lead back for the moment. 2022 second-round pick Kenneth Walker III underwent a hernia procedure and missed a good portion of training camp. When he’s healthy, Walker will see plenty of touches as well. Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas will also be listed as alleged running backs in programs and depth charts. They’re young and haven’t seen much time. It only feels like they’ve been in Seattle forever because you’re used to seeing them brought up as “possible deep sleepers” every time Carson and Penny have been injured.

Running Back Bottom Line

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: Homer and Dallas have no past, present, or future fantasy value. Yes, in theory, they move up the depth chart if (when) Penny and Walker miss time. How many times do we have to go through this? Unless you’re desperate or in a 38-team league, just let them go

Penny and Walker, on the other hand, are intriguing. Penny averages over 5.6 Yards Per Carry in his career. Unlike Homer and Dallas, he has had fleeting moments (plural!) of fantasy usefulness, including several nice games during the 2021 fantasy playoffs. Penny hasn’t necessarily been explosive, but he’s been a good, steady back. He has only one fumble in over 300 career touches. And while he hasn’t seen a ton of pass targets, he’s caught the ones thrown to him (over 74 percent for his career.) Walker is more compact and quicker than Penny. Like Penny, Walker is sure-handed and hasn’t done much in the way of receiving. This will be a situation to monitor. I had Penny at RB30 and Walker at RB40 in my initial rankings, but if either were to get a bulk of the looks and could stay healthy, he’d move into the low-end RB2/FLEX range.

2022 Seattle Seahawks Preview: Wide Receiver

One of the best wide receiver duos in the entire league will (hopefully) not be limited by sub-par quarterback play.

Seattle possesses one of the best wide receiving duos in the league in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Since coming into the league in 2019, Metcalf has finished as overall WR33, WR7, and WR14. In that same timeframe, Lockett has finished as overall WR13, WR8, and WR16. Very few teams can boast two starting wideouts who are also both startable in fantasy. Unfortunately for Metcalf and Lockett managers, however, Russell Wilson has a new star duo to throw to in Denver. As mentioned earlier, our dynamic duo of coastal-dwelling raptors will be tracking down passes from Geno Smith.

Wide Receiver Bottom Line

There’s no getting around the fact that Smith is a major downgrade from Wilson. That will have a drag effect on Metcalf and Lockett’s values. Metcalf and Lockett do their best work downfield, which is pretty foreign territory to Smith. Now obviously, these two are going to see the bulk of the targets in this pass game, whether those routes are short, intermediate, or otherwise. But this is a running team. Always has been. The Seahawks’ offense averaged only 53 plays per game last season, last in the league. The next lowest team, Houston, ran 57 plays per game. There are not going to be a ton of throws, and the throws they attempt will now come from a quarterback with a career completion percentage of 58.8. Wilson’s career percentage is 65.

I still like Metcalf as a WR2-type. His size, speed, and skill set make his game a little more “quarterback-proof,” in my opinion. Lockett has always frustrated me as a great real-life player who’s impossible to predict week-to-week. He’ll go off for 30+ points one week, then rattle off four games of 3/21/0 before his next low double-digit performance. I like Metcalf in most formats, although he’ll be a tricky dart throw at a very small target in DFS. Where I do like Lockett is in Best Ball formats. There, you get all the glory of his three 30+ point games without having to play Lockett Roulette to figure out when to start him. In Redraft, I have him as more of a low-end WR4. He’ll likely outscore that, but your guess is as good as mine as to when that’ll be.

2022 Seattle Seahawks Preview: Tight End

Noah Fant came north with Drew Lock, but did he leave his fantasy value behind in Denver?

Yet another position with a new face atop the depth chart is tight end, where Noah Fant will take over as the primary pass-catcher after Gerald Everett signed with the Los Angeles Chargers this offseason. Everett had the best year of his career for the Seahawks in 2021. He set career highs in almost every statistical category while starting 12 games en route to an overall TE22 finish. That was the highest ranking for a Seattle tight end since Jimmy Graham finished as TE7 in 2017. This isn’t necessarily an offense that features the tight end, but they have a fairly strong group. Again, Geno checkin’ down could benefit the tight ends on the underneath routes.

Tight End Bottom Line

In Denver, Fant was a pretty reliable back-end TE1, finishing as overall TE16, TE9, and TE12 in his three years in the league thus far. He probably will not see 90+ targets like he has the past two seasons, but he should be the leading receiver of the group. I love him as a player but not as a fit for this offense, and am fading him in fantasy unless we see major changes in Pete Carroll’s offensive philosophy. Fant’s upside is probably no more than a low-end TE2 as a Seahawk. He still warrants Dynasty consideration, and you could do worse than him as a dart throw in deeper leagues, especially those with tight end premium formats. Again, with these quarterbacks, Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson are good players but not fantasy considerations in this offense.

2022 Seattle Seahawks Preview: Peripherals

The Seattle DST is probably one to avoid in fantasy this season. They’ll be learning a new defensive scheme under first-year coordinator Clint Hurtt, switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base. Last year’s DST22 was a middle-of-the-road unit even at its best. Seattle gave up a ton of yards- 5th most in the league, despite their slow pace-of-play suppressing opponents’ total snap counts. The defense didn’t take the ball away very often and had a weak pass rush. They were better against the run than the pass, but in the NFC West and with games against the AFC West and Tampa Bay this season, there will be precious few games where they would even be a streaming option. This ain’t your daddy’s Legion of Boom. It’s not even your older brother’s, for that matter.

Kicker Josh Myers finished as K23 last season on presumably a better offense than he will kick for this year. He connected on less than 74 percent of his field goals and missed three extra-point attempts. He still has the leg to kick from deep; he’s only two years removed from making his career-long 61-yard kick and had a long of 53 last year. Occasionally a kicker on a poorer offense makes for a nice play, as drives sputter out before the goal line. But Myers figures to see few opportunities with this team. Coming off a career-worst season, you can definitely ignore him in drafts and find a streamer elsewhere.

Draft smart, draft strong!

Remember to check Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy analysis and entertaining insight. Rankings, team previews, strategies, and even betting advice will help you cash in this fantasy season! As always, more great NFL coverage is available on the main Belly Up site, as well as fun, informative content on the Belly Up Podcast Network, Belly Up TV, and B.U.R.N.S. Radio. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast each week.