If you’re still awake by the time the Thanksgiving night game starts, you either haven’t eaten enough, or you’re going in hardcore for another round. In that case, we salute your fortitude, because if you’ve made it this far, you’ve survived the food, the family, and the football. Speaking of the football, the Thanksgiving night game should be a good one between the Patriots and the Vikings. It’s the primetime game. The capper. It’s the chicken of the NFL’s Thanksgiving turducken on this first annual “John Madden Thanksgiving Celebration.” It’s a classic case of a (usually) offensive team versus a defensive power. The fantasy outcomes from this one will either be the perfect dessert to your day, or leave a bad taste in your mouth until Sunday. Let out your belt, and let’s go back for one more round of fantasy goodness.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. Odds and betting information are courtesy Quarter4.

Thanksgiving Night Game Preview: Patriots’ Offense

Bill Belichick “made his bones” on the defensive side of the football. The Patriots haven’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut since Tom Brady was “un”ceremoniously given his walking papers and ended up in The Big Guava. But New England’s Week 11 game against the Jets took both of those to the extreme. Somehow, one of the least-explosive games in recent memory ended up with one of the most electrifying endings imaginable. While it made for a good 35 seconds or so on NFL Redzone, it didn’t exactly mollify fantasy managers’ angst over the lackluster fantasy output of all but the New England DST in the game.

Mac Jones is no one’s idea of dynamically athletic. As I put it on the Belly Up Fantasy Live Week 12 Preview Wednesday night, Jones is not a game winner. He’s a game manager. At least at this point in his career, you’re not looking to Jones to make plays and deliver the win. You’re looking for him to not make plays that will cost you the win. And even if he were that kind of quarterback, it’s not as if he’s surrounded by playmakers. The New England wide receiver corps may be one of the least inspiring position groups in the league. It’s just hard to move past a general apathy towards any of them. Match that with a Viking team that is awfully stingy against opposing fantasy passing attacks, and there’s precious little to like for the Patriots this week.

Patriots’ Offense Big Question

So, can the Patriots score enough points on offense to take out a Viking team that has averaged almost four touchdowns in their eight wins? It took a spectacular and rare special teams play for the Patriots to get the win in a game in which their opponents averaged 2.77 inches per play in the second half. If New England plays as futilely on offense against Minnesota as they did against the Jets, they’re going to fly home disappointed. And if they’re going to score points, it’s going to be through the run game. Rhamondre Stevenson is the RB9 overall this season, and that’s right where I have him pegged this week. I think Stevenson gets not only his yardage, but takes a trip to the painted lands in this one, too.

If you really wanted to take a cheap flyer on Damien Harris, I guess it’s not the worst decision you could make. But that’s a low bar, even for a short guy like me. Jakobi Meyers is the only useable wideout on the Patriots on whom you can count to deliver with any consistency. You’re not starting DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, or Tyquan Thornton. You really shouldn’t be starting either of the Patriots’ tight ends. Their names are well-known, but somehow their lack of fantasy production is completely overlooked. Nick Folk is a starting fantasy kicker. And the Patriots’ DST is number one overall in fantasy, and a top-10 play again this week.

Thanksgiving Night Game Preview: Vikings’ Offense

We’re used to seeing Kirk Cousins-led teams wither under the lights of primetime. Perhaps the Vikings were confused by Daylight Savings’ Time. Maybe the lights inside US Bank Stadium made for a strange atmosphere. Whatever it was, the Vikings were absolutely terrible in Week 11. The Cowboys shut them down at every turn, and earned the largest road win in Dallas franchise history. It was the worst home loss for Minnesota since the 1960’s. Outside of a rather boring 8.4 fantasy score from T.J. Hockenson, there wasn’t much joy in Mud(Duck)ville.

Vikings’ Offense Big Question

So, can the Vikings right the ship against one of the league’s better defenses? Against my better judgement, I’m betting Cousins actually plays a serviceable game after dark in the Thanksgiving night tilt. I have Cousins at QB13. I think Justin Jefferson– whom you should be starting regardless of any fantasy pundit’s views- gets open enough to make a difference. And I think Dalvin Cook returns top-tier value this week as well. Jefferson and Cook are both top-10 plays for me this week. The Vikings should be hungry after last week’s embarrassment.

But the real purple gem of the week is Hockenson. Since traversing the Upper Great Lakes Region at the trade deadline, Hockenson has been a target sponge. He’s seen 28 total targets and averaged almost 12 points a game in three starts. While he hasn’t scored yet, that’s a matter of time. Hockenson is about as safe a play as there is in the fantasy tight end landscape. Cousins loves throwing to him, and the Vikings love calling plays for him. He brings perhaps the only dynamic this offense was lacking, and the Patriots one seeming weak spot in fantasy is against tight ends. He’s a top-five play this week, and each week from here on out in 2022.

Betting Lines (Courtesy of Quarter4):

Favorite: Vikings (-1.5)

Over/Under: 42.5

Notable Props: Nick Folk field goal attempts (2.5); Rhamondre Stevenson rushing yards (70.8); Ryan Wright punts (5)

Challenge Chase!

I know. Another punting prop bet. Focus. We’re almost done here. Ever wonder how you stack up against the experts? Now’s your chance to find out! You can use teams you’ve already drafted to take me on for weekly bragging rights with Flex Fantasy. Visit https://www.flex.fan/bellyup to sign up and challenge me, as I’ll be using lineups from my own home leagues. You can play for fun, play for money, or play for both! Look for SttChaseFFB’s teams in the Flex Fantasy Arena and sign up today. I promise I won’t rub it in (much) when I win. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast Sundays and Wednesdays all season long. Happy Thanksgiving, and Slàinte!