As part of my 2023 Value Locks series, I’ll be looking at yet another starting pitcher today: Edward Cabrera. To me, it feels like a matter of time until Cabrera breaks out, and I think that time is near. I hope you enjoy, and I look forward to the next portion of this series focusing on hitters, which will be up soon.

Background:

After 14 very intriguing starts last year, I think it’s time we give Edward Cabrera some serious attention heading into his third MLB season. A little bit of background: Cabrera, now 24 years old, was a 2015 international signing who turned heads early on in his slow-but-steady rise through the minors. He wasn’t a big-name international signing and his $100,000 bonus was a bit on the lower end. But at 6’5” and with a big frame, the projectability was there- so long as he could add velocity to his fastball. After just three minor league seasons, he made that jump, elevating from the low 90’s up to the 95-99 mph range. From there, he became a fixture on top-100 prospect lists between 2019 and 2022. And here we are now, where Cabrera has pitched 98 innings through two seasons and 21 total starts.

Arsenal and approach:

When discussing Cabrera’s arsenal, it might shock people that the fastball isn’t the first thing worth mentioning. Rather, Cabrera’s changeup has become his highest-usage pitch at 33 percent, with his next-highest usages in 2022 being the four-seamer at 21 percent and curveball at 21 percent. This is not only surprising for a hard-thrower like Cabrera, but it’s interesting given the 39 percent four-seam usage we saw in 2021, his first MLB season.

Regardless, this changeup is a very good one, with the potential to be even better. It’s among the hardest changeups in baseball at 92-93 mph, with a strong horizontal-dominant break, and Cabrera loves throwing it to the arm-side outer third of the plate. In 2022 the pitch generated a 17.5 percent swinging strike rate, 29 percent CSW, and 17 percent Hard Contact rate. It was above average in basically every additional relevant category. The pitch also had a -10 Run Value, .273 wOBA, and an even lower xwOBA. These are all great numbers, so what do they mean? Basically, his changeup was good at generating whiffs, good at generating overall strikes, and very good at forcing weak contact/poor outcomes. It was an awesome pitch.

The rest of the arsenal oscillates between extremely fun to watch, effective, and, at times, a bit frustrating. There are still some things that he needs to put together. For example, with the fastball, in a given start you’ll see Cabrera paint 99 mph on the outer third, followed by some bad misses, followed by some 96 mph stuff in the zone that gets hit hard. He doesn’t generate many whiffs on the heater, and though it didn’t get hit much (.176 avg), it got hit very effectively (.367 wOBA, .576 slg, 65 percent fly ball rate).

The weak 13.5 percent O-Swing and seven percent swinging strike rate also tell me that it isn’t fooling anyone. So while it does have great velocity and a nice horizontal break to it, it doesn’t play as well as you’d think. I definitely feel like the high changeup usage rather than the high four-seam usage is probably for the best. He’d be better off if the four-seamer was a straighter pitch that played better in the top of the zone. But again, it has the bones of a solid pitch. The velocity alone is a nice place to start. 

Aside from the heater, Cabrera seems to really like his curveball, which along with a slider rounds out his arsenal. Both pitches have a relatively horizontal-dominant break, and both were effective last season in the fairly high capacities in which he used them. The curveball is probably the better of the two pitches, with a 15 percent SwStr rate, 36 percent CSW, and .225 wOBA. But the slider was right up there in effectiveness with a 37 percent CSW and an incredible .128 BA against.

Cabrera has generally low x-stats, though occasional costly mistakes lead to slightly worse outcomes than many of those x-stats predict. This is nothing too unexpected for a talented-but-young starter who still has a lot to learn. Right now Cabrera feels most comfortable using the curveball against lefties, and he’ll only throw it to righties about half as often. On the flip side, he throws the slider almost exclusively to righties. While I don’t think that either will end up being an elite pitch, both pitches have the potential to sustain at a well above-average level. Having a secondary to attack righties with, while also having one for lefties, is what’s really important here. This is why we can say that he truly has a well-rounded arsenal.

2023 fantasy outlook:

So what do we make of Cabrera for the 2023 fantasy baseball season? Last year in 14 starts, Cabrera had a fantastic 3.01 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 75 strikeouts (in 71 innings), and 6 wins. For those in standard points leagues, he averaged 12.5 points per start. In roto leagues, his season average was somewhere around 130 for all players (not just pitchers). It can be a bit difficult to analyze a season like Cabrera’s because he only got 14 starts. But as far as averages and numbers go, he was obviously quite effective.

His situation in 2023 looks fantastic, though, after the Marlins decided to trade Pablo Lopez to the Twins. I’d say the most likely outcome here is a fourth spot in the rotation, with a near full-season’s worth of starts. It may not be a full season-worth, but should be close to it, which bodes quite well. Another interesting thing to note is that the Marlins don’t ever use Cabrera in relief situations. They prefer only to use him as a starter. The important thing is that with Pablo gone, Cabrera won’t have to compete for a rotation spot.

Right now I’m seeing Cabrera ranked in the 200-250 range, making him roughly the 75th SP off the board. And while it’s still early, I expect this to most likely hold. It could rise if he gains some well-deserved hype this spring. Or it could fall, if, in a shocking turn of events, he doesn’t get an opening day rotation spot. But I expect this to hold. And I do NOT expect any rotation-spot drama. In this range, I feel like Cabrera is a very good buy. It’s not the safest buy, but it’s certainly one with high upside that could help swing a whole season.

You’re getting a largely unproven quantity whose early returns have been fantastic, with an analytic profile that backs up everything he’s done. The floor is fairly low given the fact that Cabrera’s highest IP in a season is 71. While that’s certainly a concern, it’s about the only thing that would be holding me back right now. The upside is a top-50 SP whose per-start averages should be very strong in both points leagues (PPG) and roto leagues (total production). But how attainable is that upside?

We know the changeup is a very good pitch and the fastball is okay. As Cabrera scales up the number of innings and pitches he throws, it’ll come down to the curveball and slider. If one or both can continue to be effective, Cabrera should thrive. This is the gamble on Cabrera. The curveball will help him maintain effectiveness against lefties, and the slider against righties. If even one of those pitches is good-to-great in a larger sample size, he should be able to succeed.

Both pitches look good to me, especially as I outlined them above. But you can decide for yourself. Either way, it isn’t a large gamble to make. So if you want to add a high-upside piece later in the draft, or you feel good about the floor of the rest of your SPs and want to take a swing, Cabrera is your guy. And at the current price? Again… not a huge gamble. Do what you can to make room for an emerging star, in a franchise with plenty of recent pitching-development successes.

Lastly

We’re rolling out quite a bit of new fantasy baseball content as draft season approaches. I’ll have the rest of my series coming out shortly, and in the meantime, check out my last piece looking at another SP, Tyler Mahle. Make sure to check out the rest of our fantasy sports and fantasy baseball content here. And feel free to give me a Twitter follow as well!