Friday, November 08, 2024

Fantasy Football

Dynasty Rookie WR: Post Draft Analysis Part One

We were given one of the deepest WR classes I have ever witnessed. There are 24 rookie WR that I plan to break down but I will start with eight of them here for you. I address both SuperFlex and standard league value. This list is not a ranking but more of a breakdown of the 2020 NFL Rookie WR class.

Check out my Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Analysis on other positions here : QBRB Part One, RB Part Two

Check out my Top 10 Dynasty RB & Top 10 Dynasty WR, Top 10 Dynasty TE as well!

Henry Ruggs III

It seems like such a Raiders thing to do here by taking Henry Ruggs over the likes of Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb. Don’t get me wrong, Ruggs has next-level speed that will make a difference in the NFL. I would have personally gone with a more complete WR such as Jeudy or Lamb, but enough of the hypotheticals. However, I do think Mariota will have a shot to compete with Carr for the starting spot. I just hope whoever wins the QB battle can throw longer than 10 yards down the field.

Having an elite vertical game is different in the NFL. It isn’t as easy to slip behind corners and in the middle of two safeties to score a long play. Ruggs will have to use his speed to be a route-tree technician. The Raiders will look to get the ball in Ruggs’ hands in open space. The Raiders needed an answer in the receiving game and they think Ruggs will be their guy. We will just have to wait and see. Ruggs will go around the late first to early second in SuperFlex rookie drafts. If you are drafting in a standard rookie draft, I would expect Ruggs to go as early as the 1.06 to the early second round.

Jerry Jeudy

The Broncos were in dire need of a WR opposite of Courtland Sutton and were very happy to get their top guy on their board. They would have never guessed that Jeudy would fall into their lap with the 15th overall pick. Vic Fangio is building a track team for Drew Lock. Between Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Albert O defenses will have to remain on their toes in 2020. Drew Lock showed some potential in the back half of the 2019 season but it will be interesting to see if he can turn it on in 2020.

There have been some concerns about Jeudy’s knee and I would still like to monitor that closely. The uncertainty of Jeudy’s knee might have played a role in drafting Hamler in the second round. However, Jeudy should be the starter across from Sutton on day one. Jeudy will continue to run his crispy routes and be a playmaker in the open field. I am hopeful for a Lock break out in 2020. Jeudy will go in the mid to late first in SuperFlex rookie drafts. In standard rookie drafts, Jeudy can go anywhere between the 1.05 to the late first round.

CeeDee Lamb

It was nice to see my pre-draft WR1 fall to a good passing team like the Cowboys. I know that he won’t be the top priority in their offense but he will still be very productive. The Cowboys defense wasn’t able to fill all their missing pieces this offseason. The Cowboys offense will be called upon to win games in 2020. After a strong season from Dak Prescott in 2019, I have no doubts he is up for another challenge in 2020. I hope that Dak doesn’t sit out but it isn’t out of the picture quite yet.

Between Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, Lamb will have a find a role for himself. I do not think this will be very difficult for him as he is one of the best WR in the open field. Cooper has suffered some injuries over the past few years and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him miss some time in 2020. Gallup’s hands were unsure at times as he led the league in dropped passes. Lamb will work his way to becoming Dak’s favorite WR. Lamb is still a priority target for me. CeeDee will be drafted in the mid-first round in both SuperFlex and standard rookie drafts.

Jalen Reagor

Reagor was my pre-draft number three WR behind Lamb and Jeudy. Reagor is not much different than Henry Ruggs. The only difference is that Ruggs played at Alabama and Reagor played at TCU where he had a limited workload. Reagor was explosive with every chance he got. Whether it be on the return or getting the ball in space, Reagor was special. The Eagles had one of the worst receiving corps in 2019 as they went into their playoff game with JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward as their top options.

Doug Pederson‘s top priority this offseason was to provide Carson Wentz with a true WR1. Most people won’t believe that Reagor is capable of being a primary target. However, Reagor’s play is very similar to Tyreek Hill and Hill has been a consistent fantasy WR over the last few years. The talent and landing spot for Reagor has made him one of my top considerations for my rookie drafts. Reagor will go around the last first to second round in SuperFlex rookie drafts. I would expect him to be drafted around the 1.08 to the mid second round in rookie standard drafts.

Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson played a huge role in the success of the LSU passing attack in 2019. Jefferson had over 1,500 yards and 18 scores in 2019. Primarily in the slot, Jefferson was dominant with first overall pick Joe Burrow. It just felt right for Jefferson to be selected by the Minnesota Vikings. He won’t even need to switch jersey colors. Most mocks that I read had Jefferson slated to the Vikings and I was on the same boat.

After Stefon Diggs forced his way out of Minnesota into Buffalo, the Vikings needed to address a receiving threat to pair with Adam Thielen. Jefferson was a slot technician in 2019, which is where Thielen also played most of the season. One of them will have to slide out but both shouldn’t have a problem with whoever does. Jefferson worked mostly outside in 2018 and faired just fine. Jefferson will be a day one starter for the Vikings and should see a “Diggs-like” share ( 85+ targets with over 800 yards). Jefferson’s current draft position is around the second round for both SuperFlex and standard rookie drafts.

Brandon Aiyuk

After a trade with the Indianapolis Colts to acquire the 13th overall pick, it was highly expected the 49ers would take their top pass-catcher with that pick. However, with Jeudy and Lamb still on the board, they continued to address their defensive line. I do like the pick, but why continue to bolster the strongest part of your team when you have a blaring need elsewhere? I shouldn’t question the 49ers pick here as they did play in the Super Bowl in 2019.

Deebo Samuel emerged as San Fran’s top option at about the halfway point of the 2019 season. However, there was a huge hole across from him. Aiyuk is a very similar player to Samuel. Aiyuk is known for making plays with the ball in his hands in open space. It will be interesting to see how Shannahan will utilize Aiyuk in his run-first offense. Implementing a game plan to get Samuel and Aiyuk the ball in open space won’t be an easy feat. Aiyuk is very special after the catch but the Niners will continue to win games by passing only 10 times a game and playing defense. Aiyuk will be drafted in the late second round of SuperFlex rookie drafts. For those standard rookie drafters out there, expect Aiyuk to go anywhere between the mid-second to late-second round.

Tee Higgins

I was waiting to see who would be joining Joe Burrow in Cincinnati. I was very happy when I heard Tee Higgins’ name called first on day two of the 2020 NFL Draft. Higgins was one of my favorite prospects going into the draft, but it took a decent landing spot to make him a priority of mine. With Tyler Boyd primarily in the slot and A.J. Green‘s health up in the air year after year, Higgins will be a day one starter. I can’t see anyone on their current roster that can beat Higgins out.

Higgins is one of the better 50/50 receivers out of this rookie WR group. Burrow will look to find Higgins early and often. Being that they are both rookies, they will grow chemistry that will be better than any other WR on the team. That is just how it is when you bring in two offensive rookies. Burrow and Higgins are familiar with each other as they played together in the national title game. Higgins is a priority of mine in the second round of both SuperFlex and standard rookie drafts.

Michael Pittman Jr.

Michael Pittman was a very intriguing second-round target for many teams. The Colts were the lucky winner of the sweepstakes and they were sure happy. The Colts used their two second-round picks to acquire Jonathan Taylor and of course, Pittman. Colts receiving corps was quite thin in 2019. T.Y. Hilton struggled to stay healthy and Parris Campbell was also plagued with injuries. Jacoby Brissett also struggled to be anything more than a game manager.

The Colts had to rely on the run game plenty of times in 2019. The Colts brought in NFL vet Philip Rivers to help take their offense to the next level. I am personally not a fan of Rivers and feel that Rivers is just closing the gap between Trevor Lawrence the Indianapolis Colts. Pittman should be a contributor in year one. He is big, physical, and elusive, and Rivers will look to him early and often if Hilton goes down again. Pittman goes in the third round in SuperFlex rookie drafts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pittman slide into the second round of standard rookie drafts.

Check out my Rookie Mock Draft 1.0  and 2.0

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