This is the sixth of 32 Ceilings and Floors, covering each NFL team’s QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. We continue in the AFC North, with the Cincinnati Bengals. In case you missed it, here is the breakdown for the Baltimore Ravens. (Depth Charts courtesy of footballguys.com)
Ceilings and Floors: Quarterback
QB1: Joe Burrow
CEILING: Joe Burrow proves to be more than a one year wonder, and wins Rookie of the Year. A fantasy line of 35 TDs and 4,100 yards passing, plus 300 yards rushing and 2 TDs, delights owners, and Burrow is crowned the next big thing.
FLOOR: Polar opposite. He proves to be nothing but a one year wonder, and Bengals fans delight in knowing that because they have the first pick, they get Trevor Lawrence. Alternatively, The Bengals’ offensive line gets Burrow hospitalized, and David Carr calls asking if he wants to talk about it. His floor is quite low for a first overall pick. We could be looking at a bust, he couldn’t beat out Dwayne Haskins, and his numbers before last year weren’t pretty.
PREDICTION: I think anyone who saw Joe Burrow play last year knows this kid could be special. I expect some growing pains, but he isn’t lacking in weapons, and a solid 29 TD, 3,500 yard rookie season. Don’t be shocked if he gets closer to his ceiling.
QB2: Ryan Finley
CEILING: Burrow is gonna have to be hurt for Finley to sniff any action. If it happens, Finley proves better prepared for the offense in year two and puts up 16 game numbers of 25 TDs, 2,900 yards passing.
FLOOR: He never sees the field, ever. Why would he? Burrow was pick one, Finley wasn’t sharp last year, and backup is the highest on the depth chart he ever gets.
PREDICTION: The floor for sure. He will backup Burrow until his contract expires. Useful only as a handcuff for Burrow in case your QB depth is questionable.
QB3: Jake Dolegala
CEILING: This kid is special out of Central Connecticut State. He tore up college football and gives the Bengals quality QB depth.
FLOOR: I made that ceiling up- he didn’t tear it up in college, and before I wrote this article, I had actually never heard of him. Ever. And I studied this draft really hard. I mean hours and hours. Not one write-up. Not a reference. He doesn’t even have a profile on Sports Reference CFB. To be honest, I had never heard of Central Connecticut State either. Am I being Punk’d?
PREDICTION: One of these is true, and if you think it’s the ceiling, I am signing you up for Punk’d.
Ceilings and Floors: Running Back
RB1: Joe Mixon
CEILING: Joe Burrow opens up the offense, and Mixon capitalizes with 16 total TD and 1,700 total yards. Fantasy owners everywhere swoon.
FLOOR: The Bengals line is still bad, Burrow struggles, defenses sell out to stop the run, and Mixon suffers, alongside his fantasy owners. 6 total TDs, and 1,000 total yards, and another wasted year.
PREDICTION: The Bengals should be better, but I have been fooled before (looking at you, Cleveland). I still expect 10 total TDs, along with 1,400 total yards. He is a safe bet to produce.
RB2: Giovani Bernard
CEILING: Gio reminds us his he can still play, and scores 5 TDs to go along with 500 total yards.
FLOOR: Are you kidding me, that’s his ceiling? His floor is Bengals assistant RB coach or assistant quality control.
PREDICTION: Even if he plays, he is not good, and he is just in the way of younger guys. He might score one week, but probably not.
RB3: Trayveon Williams
CEILING: This guy averaged 6 yards per touch and almost 12 TDs per year in college. He easily surpasses Bernard, and emerges as an excellent change of pace back, recording 6 total TDs to go along with 900 total yards. He becomes very relevant if Mixon goes down, and posts a 9 TD 1,200 total yard backup performance.
FLOOR: He never gets a single carry. Like last year. His snap count was seven.
PREDICTION: How this guy got zero touches last year befuddles me. I expect he wins the backup job, and scores 4 TDs, adding 600 all-purpose yards. His value should increase over time as he earns a larger role due to his versatility.
RB4: Rodney Anderson
CEILING: Anderson showed flashes in the one year in Oklahoma he could stay on the field. If healthy, he should beat out Gio for the third RB slot.
FLOOR: This goes pretty low since he struggled mightily to be on the field. Low like not seeing the field for an offensive snap.
PREDICTION: He wins the RB3 spot, but provides no fantasy value unless one Mixon or Williams goes down.
RB5: Samaje Perine, RB6: Jacques Patrick
CEILING: Both could beat out Gio,
FLOOR: Gio beats them out. I mean… ouch.
PREDICTION: They do nothing in fantasy no matter what. I know it seems bold, but that’s what I do.
Ceilings and Floors: Wide Receiver
WR1: A.J. Green
CEILING: A.J. Green returns from his lost season fresh and rejuvenated. He reminds everyone who he is, and has a monster 12 TD, 1,500-yard season, syncing up with Burrow to elevate both of their games.
FLOOR: He doesn’t return to form after injury, Burrow struggles, and Green finishes the year with 4 TDs and 700 yards receiving.
PREDICTION: A.J. Green was very good. I expect he will have a solid year, 9 TDs and 1,100 yards. He’s 32, but he was a proven commodity pre-injury.
WR2: Tyler Boyd
CEILING: Boyd tops 1,000 yards for the third consecutive year, totaling 1,200 to go along with 10 TDs as he passes Green for WR1 honors in Cincy.
FLOOR: Burrow struggles, and Boyd posts a modest 5 TDs and 800 yards, stunting his development temporarily.
PREDICTION: Joe Burrow should help Boyd a lot, and I am expecting 1,000 yards receiving and 7 TDs.
WR3: John Ross
CEILING: Ross uses his speed to become a weapon for the Bengal offense, tallying 1,000 all-purpose yards to go along with 8 TDs.
FLOOR: Ross underwhelms, the Bengals do not use him properly, and he posts abysmal numbers. 2 TDs, 280 yards. Fanboys everywhere cut him.
PREDICTION: Ross could be an interesting weapon if utilized properly, and I believe the Bengals offense will be much better next year. I see 5 total TDs and 850 all-purpose yards.
WR4: Tee Higgins
CEILING: Higgins bursts out of the gate hot, becoming an integral part of the Bengals offense. 8 TDs and 900 yards force the Bengals to feature him more heavily in 2021.
FLOOR: Higgins under-performs, the other guys shine, and he finishes the year with a pedestrian 2 TDs and 300 yards receiving.
PREDICTION: Higgins had a few question marks coming into the league, but I see a serviceable WR. 4 TDs and 500 yards seem possible, and while I don’t see superstar in the cards, you could be looking at a solid depth piece.
WR5: Auden Tate
CEILING: Tate sees the field due to injuries, and makes just enough wild catches to have 4 TDs to add to his 600 yards.
FLOOR: Tate gets buried behind higher potential guys, and record 5 catches for 93 yards.
PREDICTION: This guy made some pretty good catches in 2019, but I fear he won’t see the field much. Without injuries, I expect nothing more than 2 TDs and 200 yards.
WR6: Alex Erickson, WR7: Stanley Morgan, WR8: Mike Thomas, WR9: Damion Willis
CEILING: You have heard of breaking the glass ceiling? These guys have a reinforced titanium roof, and only ants can squeeze underneath it.
FLOOR: On an elevator, when the garage is under the building, and you press B3 to go three floors under the ground floor, go below that, and you will find these guys.
PREDICTION: You can tell a fantasy team owner has not studied a lick if they draft any of these guys. In any format.
Ceilings and Floors: Tight End
TE1: C.J. Uzomah
CEILING: Burrow relies heavily on his tight ends, and Uzomah cashes in with 7 TDs and 800 yards receiving.
FLOOR: Uzomah has been in the league for 5 years, and his best year in 2018 had a line of 3 TDs and 439 yards. His floor is lower. 2 TDs, 300 yards.
PREDICTION: Uzomah is TE1, I expect 4 TDs and 550 yards.
TE2: Drew Sample
CEILING: Cincy chooses, despite their WR depth, to use more two TE sets. Sample gets more touches and scores 3 times, adding 400 receiving yards.
FLOOR: Cincy is smart and rolls with 1 or 0 TE often. Sample has 50 yards, 0 TDs.
PREDICTION: Don’t expect much here. Too much WR touches necessary. 120 yards, 0 TD.
TE3: Cethan Carter, TE4: Mason Schreck, TE5: Mitchell Wilcox
CEILING: The rookie Wilcox could become future TE depth in Cincy, but there is no current fantasy value from these three.
FLOOR: I guess the ceiling and the floor are the same.
PREDICTION: I guess the prediction is too… There just isn’t much I can say to engage you in three TEs that are not really engaging. Honestly, thanks for reading about three guys you would have been better off not reading about.