Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Value Plays

In my last fantasy preview, I looked at the first round of a draft. But it is often the players found later in the draft that can determine whether a team makes the playoffs and goes on to be a champion. Fortunately, we are here to accomplish that very goal. This is your fantasy football value plays!

Running Backs

Phillip Lindsey, Denver Broncos

NFL Journal: Following free agency and draft, will Phillip Lindsay ...

You wouldn’t think that a player that rushed 224 times for 1,011 yards (4.5 YPC) and 7 touchdowns would be a value play. But here Phillip Lindsey is, thanks to the Broncos inexplicable signing of Melvin Gordon. But this is the uncomfortable news for those that draft Gordon: he has played 16 games only once in the past four years.

Lindsey showed what he is capable of when he rushed for 109 yards (5.7 YPC) and a TD in a Week 16 game against Detroit. That just happened to be the championship round in most fantasy leagues. The Chargers used both Gordon and Ekeler in the same backfield last year. There is no reason to think that Denver won’t do the same. Lindsey is a player you can take later in the draft that could pay huge dividends. If you wish to thank me, I accept any and all gift cards.

Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles

One-on-One: Boston Scott | January 5, 2020

If one was to judge Boston Scott purely on the last four weeks of the 2019 season, he certainly looks to be a value play. He caught six or more passes in three of the four, which really pays off in a PPR league. But the last game of the season was where Scott really showed what he can do. He scored three touchdowns against the New York Giants. Most importantly, the Eagles won all four games. Additionally, he averaged over 5.5 YPC in two games.

The Eagles lost Jordan Howard to the Miami Dolphins and Scott now has just Miles Sanders ahead of him on the depth chart. However, head coach Doug Pederson doesn’t prefer the one back running attack. He looks for ways to get his offensive weapons on the field. Scott will play this season and looks for a big stat increase this season. Draft Scott in the late rounds and hold on to him as he will have real value. Trust me, you will thank me.

Wide Receivers

N’Keal Harry, New England Patriots

NFL analyst doesn't think N'Keal Harry will be elite or No. 1 receiver

2020 is all about N’Keal Harry, as he had a season to forget last year. In an injury-plagued campaign, Harry only caught 12 passes for 105 yards and 2 TDs. But, let’s forget about the past. It is obvious that head coach Bill Belichick has confidence in the wide receiver. Just look at the evidence as the Patriots did not draft a WR this past April.

Aside from Julian Edelman, who do they have to catch passes? And Edelman has injury concerns as he has never played in all 16 games in his career. True, the Patriots will have a new quarterback, but maybe Belichick knows something about that, too, as New England didn’t draft one. In any case, with a 223 ADP, Harry has a chance for a ton of value without costing much capital.

James Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers

James Washington still trying to find his role in the Steelers ...

Let’s be clear, nothing went right for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2019. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger only played in two games and the replacements were nothing to write home about. But he is expected to be fully healthy this season and that gives James Washington the look of a solid value with his 186 ADP.

Roethlisberger led the league with 5,129 yards just the season before with 34 TDs. He knows how to throw the deep ball, which will really benefit Washington, as he averaged 16.7 YPC. It is a virtual certainty that Washington will zoom past his 44-735-3 line. There is little to lose draft wise so he will boost your team tremendously.

Tight Ends

Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons

Falcons trade for tight end Hayden Hurst

We all know that the tight end position is by far the shallowest in fantasy football. The top ones will be off the board early and if you don’t get one of them, what do you do? You look for value, that’s what. And that is where Hayden Hurst comes in. Pay no attention to his 30-349-2 line from last season. Hurst had the misfortune of playing behind Mark Andrews and his 10 TD catches a year ago. Additionally, the Baltimore Ravens were the most run-heavy team in the NFL in 2019. That really limited everyone’s catch opportunities.

There are no such concerns in Atlanta, where the Falcons averaged 43 passes a game to 28 for the Ravens. The TE job is Hurst’s to lose as no one else on the current roster has more than nine career catches. Andrews was the true value play at TE in fantasy football last season. Everything points to the TE title shifting to Hurst in 2020. Even if you happen to snag one of the stud TEs early, Hurst will be a valuable late-round draft selection. Remember, you heard it here first.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

Forgotten Freak: Miami TE Mike Gesicki | Dynasty Nerds

Another TE that looks like one of the definite fantasy football value plays is Mike Gesicki. The final five games of 2019 show what he is capable of. He caught four or more passes in four of the games. Gesicki also had three touchdown catches in his last two games. He will most certainly fly past his 51-510-5 line as Gesicki enters his third pro season.

The Dolphins added tons of players to this season’s roster. They drafted six offensive players. They also added such players as running backs Jordan Howard, Matt Breida through free agency or trade. His current ADP is 117. If you happen to snag him in that vicinity, there will be lots of smiles going on with your team next fantasy season.

Quarterbacks

Drew Lock, Denver Broncos

NFL Journal: Broncos quarterback Drew Lock hopes offseason ...

The selection of Drew Lock as a value play has nothing to do with the numbers he posted in his first season. No, this is all about the benefits the experience of starting Denver’s final five games will give him. Incidentally, Lock won four of those games. Also, Denver added a lot of offensive weapons in the offseason. There’s no question he will surpass 1020 yards and 7 touchdowns a third of the way through the 2020 schedule.

Denver not only added Gordon but drafted Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy in the first round of April’s draft. Jeudy averaged 17.2 YPC in his Crimson Tide career, giving Lock and the Broncos a real big-play potential. Additionally, Denver added two more wide receivers, a center, a tight end, and a guard in April. Speaking of experience, TE Noah Fant looks to really build on a 40-562-3 line in his second season. Add it all together and Lock could really take off and won’t you feel fortunate you snagged him around his 114 ADP?

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

Lions' Matt Patricia squashes the Matthew Stafford trade rumor ...

Remember Matthew Stafford? To hear talk this offseason, Stafford might as well be a dead carcass on the side of the road. I suppose it is not surprising, given that he suffered a severe back injury last season. Stafford missed the Lion’s final eight games, taking Detroit down with him. Fair enough.

But, just glance at those first eight games. It becomes clear just how good a year that Stafford was having before the injury. He completed 187 of 291 passes for 2,499 yards and 19 touchdowns. Could you use a QB that throws for 5,000 yards and 38 TDs in a full season on your fantasy team? I know that I could. He has been medically cleared, so keep an eye on him during the preseason. If he looks good, don’t hesitate to pounce before his ADP of 130. He will definitely be one of this season’s fantasy football value plays.

It has been a pleasure having you join me with this look into the fantasy football value plays. Please feel free to make a comment. I welcome your suggestions on players to add. These selections will be updated as the season gets closer, I receive more input and more information becomes available. Follow me on twitter @kevin62wilsea, and make sure to turn to Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports and Picks for all the latest NFL and sports news!