Tuesday, November 05, 2024

Fantasy Football

What I know and what I don’t from TNF

I don’t know about you guys, but I enjoyed that TNF game last night. I would call it borderline spiritual. Everything was awesome for large stretches of time, as fantasy seasons all around the world kicked off in style. I expected a closer game but found myself entertained regardless, simply from the sheer excitement of live NFL football on my television. But after the dust settled, and lying in bed last night, I started thinking to myself, what does that game mean? That is 100% of the football footage we have to go with until Sunday, we might as well use our time wisely!

David Johnson looks good

DJ brought it Thursday night. And I am going to start doing more arm workouts.

DJ impressed me last night, both with his moves, and with a power aspect. The second part was strikingly apparent when watching the chiefs try power running. If Johnson remains healthy, he is going to reward fantasy owners who grabbed him. A top 10 finish is well within his range. The Duke Johnson injury could certainly open up even more touches. I am not claiming he is the DJ of old just yet, but whatever he is right now, he has RB1 potential.

Texans find a TE in Jordan Akins

I am doing my best to imagine what face the man in the mask on the left is making. Is he scowling? Chewing gum? We will never know.

Jordan Akins looked very good last night. He is surprisingly agile, and he tied with Fells for most TE targets, at 2. Fells took his two for 19 yards, Akins took his for 39 and a score. He just looked so athletic, and could be a problem for defenses as solo tackles may not come easily. If you are like me and were waiting to see which guy emerges, Akins is clearly the front-runner at this point, and his display on TNF made me think that will continue.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire truthers, skip this section

I chose a picture with nobody else in it, so you wouldn’t see how small he is. So truther’s cant be too angry.

CEH put up a strong statistical performance on TNF, and he is clearly talented. He is incredibly shifty, and his height makes him virtually disappear behind the lineman, a very useful thing for zone running. He is also pretty quick and runs with a toughness about him that I like to see. However… here it comes… I am telling you guys to sell high right now. People everywhere are proclaiming him a top 5 back. He almost assuredly won’t finish top 5 week 1. And I saw some things that seriously concerned me.

For one, he has no short yardage oomph. He was stuffed repeatedly in those situations, and while he shed a few arm tackles, he isn’t running many people over. And KC, to me, just showed me that you are gonna have a hard time knowing who outside Mahomes is gonna have a big week. There are too many weapons. Kelce and Hill are both elite at their positions, Watkins is fooling everyone again, and Hardman was a non-factor. Do you think that’s the same script week 2? Me neither.

CEH is a weapon and a good back, but I can’t justify them riding him like a bell-cow back when the other weapons are so dangerous. He will be a top 15 back, maybe even fall into top 10, but top 5 is outrageous! He was pulled out on third downs, why? It’s also weird he caught zero passes. I doubt that happens again, but guys, if you can trade him for A Jones, or J Jacobs, or M Sanders, or Zeke(this happened), do it right now. Because he is great but not elite.

Sammy Watkins or Mecole Hardman?

I see this picture, and I see the Lizard-King offering up a football to some deity. Try and unsee it, go ahead.

Ok, for the CEH truthers who skipped the last section, there was a part where I mentioned the KC weapons are gonna be hard to predict who eats on a weekly basis outside Mahomes. You can say Kelce and Hill have the best floors of the bunch, but everyone has wicked ceilings in KC. Watkins was the man week 1, and Hardman was essentially a non-factor.

Don’t assume this will be the trend moving forward. Hardman will be the highest scoring guy in that offense a minimum of one time. Watkins could do it again too. But Watkins’ history makes me suspicious, and Hardman’s upside makes him delicious. So Hardman is a guy I want to acquire low this week, and I will shop my Sammy shares. If the price is right, those are the league winning moves you make. It’s all about value.

Texans OL Bleh, Chiefs D/ST looks good in that dress

The Chiefs D won against the Texans OL. but how good are either?

Watson is gonna need the line to do a way better job if the Texans want to make any sort of run this year. I am still not entirely convinced that either the line was that poor, or that the Chiefs D is better than I thought. They made Watson uncomfortable, tipped passes, and sacked him 4 times. The trick here is to know whether it was the Texans offensive or Chiefs defensive lines that were the issue. I suspect part of both, but if either the Chiefs defense is much better than we thought, or the Texans line is much worse, there are going to be some people seriously mis-evaluating both the Texans offense and the Chiefs D. Rather than doing either, I suggest you realize it is some of both, and capitalize on any value discrepancies you can from other owners who might be panicking.

Deshaun Watson had a lot of dropped balls

This is where the ball ended up, even though in their hands was where it was supposed to go. Like the receiving corps all became mechanics and got motor oil all over there hands just before the game. Thanks for fixing my alternator guys!

There is a third option for why Watson was sacked 4 times on TNF. Nobody was open. How long can a line block for a guy, am I right? There did seem to be times when nobody was open, and at least some credit goes to the KC D. But some blame must go on those pass-catchers. There were multiple drive-crippling drops early.

The receiving weapons for the Texans were unspectacular as a whole. The Chiefs D is above average, but I expected more from what is a versatile range of guys in this passing attack while they are all healthy. Fuller wound up having quite the game, and Akins impressed with limited touches, but otherwise, I am not sure they get a passing grade. Guys just weren’t getting open, or dropping passes when they did. Watson played very well, all things considered, and I am full steam ahead on that bandwagon.

TNF. Opening week. We made it everyone. Football season is underway, and I couldn’t be happier. Thanks for reading, what did you take from TNF? Let me know in the comments, or on Twitter @realryanhicks. Follow @BellyUpFantasy to see everything we do. May Sunday go Chiefs for you, and Texans for your opponent! In case you missed it, I will be doing a weekly buy low sell high article. Week 1 even mentions CEH.