It’s Monday Night

Welcome everyone, to Monday night. I’m sure you football fans woke up this morning with that tantalizing Monday Night Football “duh-duh-duh-duh” theme pounding through your skull. One last night of NFL action before the weekly grind starts. (The NFL season extends weekends through Monday in case you hadn’t heard.) And all of you sport bettors out there have been eyeing up this matchup since last Monday night. The Bears face off with the Vikings tonight at Solider Field. It’s an NFC North matchup between two organizations trying to stay within striking distance of the first-place Packers. And the Packers have never looked more vulnerable after nearly losing to Jake Luton’s JV Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. So now, there’s blood in the water, and the sharks are circling. Both the Vikings and Bears have fairly easy schedules remaining this season, so their head-to-head matchups are gaining more and more importance.

Monday Night Match-Up: Vikings

The Bears and Vikings have one thing in common, they have been extremely limited on one side of the ball. The Vikings have one of the worst defenses in the league, allowing 28.8 PPG through eight games. However, their offense has been prolific this season, behind the horsepower of MVP candidate Dalvin Cook. I mean people have been running with the “Let Russ cook” narrative surrounding the MVP award all season. How about we put some more emphasis on “Let Dalvin Cook.” As in, let Dalvin Cook shred every defense standing in his way. Seriously, watching him carry the football is like watching Thanos get the final infinity stone, but instead of fighting the Avengers, it’s the Muppet Babies. It’s no contest.

Cook has scored in every game he’s played this season, including multiple touchdown performances in over half those games. In the last two weeks, Cook has tallied 478 all-purpose yards and 6 touchdowns. For comparison, Bears starting running back David Montgomery has 472 rushing yards and 2 total touchdowns through all nine weeks this season. Couple Cook’s production with the elite wide receivers on Minnesota like Thielen and Justin Jefferson, and Kirk Cousins basically just has to snap the ball before the play clock expires to score points.

Monday Night Match-Up: Bears

Now, the Chicago Bears have seemingly had the opposite issues that the Vikings have faced in 2020. Their defense has been elite, allowing only 20.4 PPG with 9 turnovers, including a fumble recovery touchdown in Week 7. Ever since they acquired him in 2018 from Gruden’s Raiders, Khalil Mack has been the perfect fit in Chicago. Mostly because he is the closest human I’ve ever seen to actually physically resembling a grizzly bear. And he is using that unique size, strength, and speed to good use as he already has 6.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles in 2020. And Mack is far from the only stud on this defensive unit as they have immense talent at all three levels with the defensive line, linebackers, and secondary.

However, the Bears have been struggling badly on the offensive side of the ball this season. For starters, they benched QB Mitchell Trubisky in favor of Nick Foles after Trubisky’s 3-0 start. This was a clear upside play as Foles was a former Super Bowl MVP in Philadelphia, but Foles has never seemed to be able to find that magic outside the City of Brotherly Love. Since taking over the starting job, Foles has only thrown for 300 yards once, and under 200 twice. On top of that, he has thrown 7 interceptions through 6.5 games. That includes at least one every week until last week’s game with Tennessee. And we already touched on the pathetic attempt at a run game they have showed with Montgomery this season. This Bears offense is among the worst in the league.

The Game

So, tonight’s Monday night matchup will be the tale of two games. For half the game, we will be watching electric football. One of the best offensive players in the league in Cook showing down with one of the league’s best defenses. These possessions are sure to hook fans, as elite talent battles with playoff-like intensity. The other half of the game, however, will probably leave football fans switching over to the Yule log channel. When Nick Foles is shows off against Minnesota’s defense, you realize it’s never too early to watch fake wood burn. That’s entertainment. However, you don’t want to accidentally miss some of the good football because you’re switching channels constantly. So place a couple prop bets on the game tonight. Nothing can keep bad football interesting like the chance at a few extra bucks.

Betting Time

So you made it through the weekend, and are looking to throw yet another bet down on Monday Night Football. Maybe you had a huge weekend of winnings, and you’re looking to win a little more for that new PS5 money. Maybe, and more likely, you just lost your PS5 money this weekend, and you’re chasing that cash down. I mean that’s your hard earned money, who are the Patriots to take it from you by inexplicably beating Baltimore. (Clearly I’m not bitter)

But either way, you’ve already made the decision that you’re all in on betting this game. However, when looking at Minnesota -3.5, I don’t see much value on the spread. Both teams feel evenly matched overall. And in a matchup where a good offense plays a good defense, and a bad offense plays a bad defense, the over/under is also a risky play. So my advice for Monday Night Football betting, is to find the value in prop bets.

Prop Bets- Dalvin Cook

So I’ve told you I didn’t find good value on the spread or over/under lines on this game. But which prop bets do offer good value on Monday night? First, I will offer up a bet where I like the play a lot, but the price may be too low for your liking. Dalvin Cook to score an anytime touchdown. I know this is starting to turn into a Dalvin Cook hype article. But, he has been winning me my fantasy league, so I owe it to him. Like I said before, Dalvin Cook has scored in every single game he has played this year. He is the focal point of this offense and will get many opportunities to score, even against a tough Chicago defense. Now at a price of -240 on Draftkings Sportsbook, it would take a fairly large bet to make a decent profit here.

If you are looking for a little bit of a nicer payout from Cook’s production, look at him to get over 86.5 rushing yards. The line on this bet currently sits at -130 via Draftkings Sportsbook. Since Cook returned from injury in Week 8 he has been sensational. Look for Head Coach Mike Zimmer to feed the ball to Cook well over 20 times, making 86.5 rushing yards an easy achievement.

Prop Bets- Kirk Cousins

Now maybe you are feeling a little unsure of how well Cook will perform because of the matchup with Chicago. If that is the case, look to place your prop bets on the production of Kirk Cousins. With Cook being so productive lately, it seems logical that Zimmer will game plan to get him the ball often. That means if the game flips in favor of Chicago, Kirk Cousins will likely struggle. In addition, Cousins has a bit of a history struggling in primetime games, so I wouldn’t expect much from him regardless.

The prop bet to look at with Cousins is under 222.5 passing yards. This line currently sits at -124 on Draftkings Sportsbook. Cousins has gone under that mark each of the past two week, since Cook has emerged back on the scene. Even against Detroit’s pathetic secondary last week, Cousins would have hit that under line. In addition, Chicago is a top 5 defense. The only other top 5 defense Minnesota played this year was against the Colts. In that matchup, Cousins only threw for 113 yards. If the Vikings do well tonight, it should be because of a solid running display by Dalvin Cook. If they lose, it will likely be because Kirk Cousins cannot move the ball through the air. Either way, I don’t see Kirk Cousins showing up for a divisional matchup and tossing it for 223 yards on Monday night.

Prop Bets- Bears Defense

For my final prop bet proposition for Week 10’s Monday Night Football matchup, I am looking to Chicago’s defense. I do not have any faith in the production or consistency of the Bears offense, so I am not putting my money there. However, I do believe in both the production and consistency of the Bears defense. My prop bet pick for this side of the ball may be my favorite play of the game. The current odds for the Bears to get over 0.5 interceptions against the Vikings sits at +120.

That is an immense value on a line for an elite defensive unit to pick off a below average quarterback. The only reason I can think of to explain this line is that the Vikings will play run heavy. However, you can’t run the ball every play, and the Bears already have 5 interceptions on the year. On top of that, Kirk Cousins has already thrown 10 interceptions this year in only 8 games. Statistically speaking its more likely that he’s going to throw one than not. And that’s against any defense, let alone one of the best in the league. I love this bet tonight because of the line and the likelihood, back this bet to win some cash tonight.

Winning Time

Okay, we’ve analyzed the game, the match-ups, and the best prop bet picks. If you want to win some money tonight, I recommend backing the four prop bets outlined above. Kirk Cousins to throw an interception, Kirk Cousins throwing under 222.5 passing yards, Dalvin Cook to score, and Dalvin Cook over 86.5 rushing yards all have value as strong plays for Monday Night Football. In a game where the outcome feels more uncertain than it does in most matchups, playing the props makes the most sense. That being said, let’s win some money and enjoy the game tonight. Or at least the good half of it. Good luck, and please bet responsibly!

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