Wednesday, November 06, 2024

Betting, Gambling

Sunday Sevens: My Bets for Week 11

Last week was filled with bad beats and tough bets. The Ravens and Patriots played in a typhoon and Kyler Murray threw a “Hail Murray” to cover the Over in the game. The result was a disappointing week in bets and predictions. Hopefully this week we will be back on course with these bets. Here are my seven bets to consider taking for Sunday’s action.

Favorite and Underdog

Favorite: Browns (-3) versus Eagles

This one really shocks me. The Browns are at home and having one of their best seasons in modern memory. The Eagles are having a historically bad season. The Browns are only favored by three-points, basically meaning if this game was at a neutral field, it’s a pick-’em. The Eagles have clawed through three victories and two of those wins came against their own division, the worst in the NFL. The Browns will keep this game close but with the strong offensive line, plus the two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt at running back, they should control the majority of the game. Expect them to win and cover.

Underdog: Titans (+5.5) versus Ravens

The Titans have been sputtering in recent weeks, losing three of their last four games. Likewise, the Ravens have not looked the same since left tackle Ronnie Stanley suffered a season-ending injury in Week 8. These odds would indicate that the Ravens are more likely to bounce-back and give us one of their best games of the season. I would take the Titans here considering this bet is giving you 5.5-points. The Titans are coming off of eleven days of rest from a Thursday night game. This game has a strong indication of being an upset or at least close enough for the Titans cover the spread.

Over and Under Bets

Over: Packers versus Colts (Total 50.5)

The total is high and both defenses have proven they can close out games and leave their opponents with fewer than 20 points. The Colts are allowing 19.7 points per game while the Packers are allowing 24.9 points per game. Instincts say to bet the Under in this game but there are more than enough reasons to bet the Over in a game that can become a shootout. A minor detail to note is the game is being played indoors which naturally favors the offenses.

The Packers may love the "Frozen Tundra" but Aaron Jones and the offense love the indoor games where they can put 40 points on the board, as they did earlier this year in Minnesota.
The Packers may love the “Frozen Tundra” but Aaron Jones and the offense love the indoor games where they can put 40 points on the board, as they did earlier this year in Minnesota. One of the intriguing bets with the Packers this week is the Over. Dec 23, 2019; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) carries the ball for a touchdown during the third quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

The important reason to bet the Over is the potent offenses. The Colts found their rhythm on Thursday night with a strong running game and Philip Rivers making all the right throws. Plus, the offensive line might be the best in the NFL. The Packers might not have Davante Adams this week, at least not a fully healthy Adams, but the offense has proven throughout the season they can bring a balanced attack and we can expect Allen Lazard to potentially have a big game. Anticipate the Over covering in this matchup of first-place teams.

Under: Cowboys versus Vikings (Total 48)

First, we have to acknowledge that the Cowboys offense has been a tragedy to watch. Since Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending injury, the Cowboys has not scored more than 20 points in a game. The expectation is that they won’t clear that mark again which means that Minnesota will have to score at least 30 points on their own to help cover the Over. Now, many would assume the Vikings can easily clear the 30 point mark. After all, the Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL as well. The problem with betting on the Vikings’ offense is their run-first mentality. If the Vikings build a big lead, expect them to run out the clock by handing the ball off to Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. It just seems too far fetched to see the total in this game clearing 48 points.

Honorable Mention for the Under: The Browns have played in terrible weather at home recently. Both games finished well Under the total. The weather is projected to be awful once again, the total is 46.5.

Money Line: Bengals versus Football Team (+108)

I’m slightly surprised that the Bengals are underdogs for this game. Sure, both teams have two wins on the season, but it’s easy to argue that the Bengals have been the best two-win team in the NFL. Joe Burrow continues to impress and is getting better with each start. Washington has a good defense but their offense essentially loses every game for them. This game might be a yawner and not one worth watching but you should take advantage of one of the bets in which the Bengals should win and give you good odds in the process.

Alternate Line Bets: Dolphins (-6.5) versus Broncos

The Dolphins are riding a winning streak that is destined to end at some point and the Dolphins are the road team. However, I am all in on the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have proven they have one of the best teams in the AFC. The defense isn’t getting enough credit while the offense is constantly improving with the rise of rookie Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins are only 3.5-point favorites. For better odds, I would take a 6.5-point alternate spread, hoping the Dolphins win by more than a touchdown.

Player Prop Bets

Justin Herbert throws 3 passing touchdowns (+126)

Justin Herbert is playing the Jets. I know that 3 passing touchdowns might be a tall task but Herbert has proven that he can throw on any defense. The Chargers are heavy favorites in this game but if for any reason this game is close, Justin Herbert is going to cover this prop bet.

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