Wednesday, November 06, 2024

Fantasy Basketball, Featured

Basketball: Must Starts for Fast Break

Ok, so as we’ve said a few times here, at Belly Up we’re diving face-first into learning more about fantasy basketball and sharing it with you. We even broke down our draft, and handed out some ideas to help you with yours. But now? Draft time is over, and the games are upon us. That leaves one big question- who plays?

The following is a list of guys you need to look to play in “Game Pick” style fantasy basketball. In “Game Pick,” you select a game for the week you want your players to play. So if you have LeBron James and he plays three nights that week, you choose what night you want to count for your team. This is beneficial for people who have the Kawhi Leonards and Russell Westbrooks of the world, as they don’t playback to backs. 

It also adds a level of strategy to your lineup. You may have Luka Doncic, but have him playing on a road trip against the Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets back to back nights, ending with a trip to Milwaukee before heading home to play the San Antonio Spurs. Three tough defenses in one week offer their own wear and tear, and you would probably rather just focus on the one home game. In this format, you get to do that. 

But, say you have an east coast road trip, and Doncic gets to see the Knicks, Cavs, and Pistons all in the same week. As fun as that week can be for a Mavs fan, for a Doncic Fantasy Basketball owner, in a “Game Pick” league, choosing which defense he will slice more than the others seems impossible. 

Here are some of the guys you HAVE to get in this week for each day of the Game Week. And, even if you’re not in a “Game Pick” league, these are still names to check out as they might explode.

Day 1: Opening Night

Kyrie Irving vs Golden State

Who better to lead your fast break than Kyrie Irving? Sure, he thinks the Earth is flat and that the best way to get his message across is by not talking, but don’t let all of that distract you. When he is healthy and available, Kyrie can really play basketball. And that is what is important in Fantasy Basketball.

Kyrie has 22 points, six assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game in his career. But, the last time he was a number two option playing against the Warriors was all the way back to the 2017 NBA Finals. In the 2017 NBA Finals, playing alongside a former Finals MVP at Small Forward, Kyrie averaged 29.4 points, 4.4 assists, and 4.0 rebounds across the series. That iteration of the Warriors might have had Cleveland’s number, but Kyrie clearly has Steph Curry’s. Now, Irving is the number two option to Kevin Durant.

Further, the perimeter defense is even more depleted on the current Warriors. Klay Thompson is out and his replacement, Kelly Oubre, will almost certainly draw the longer Caris LeVert. Durant will pull former Defensive Player of the Year candidate Draymond Green, and that leaves some combination of Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins to cover Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris. Pick your poison, Warriors, but either option opens up a lot of opportunity for Kyrie Irving on Opening Night. 

Day 2

Collin Sexton vs Charlotte

My first thought here was the last game of Collin Sexton’s rookie year, when he gave Terry Rozier and the Hornets 18 points and 10 assists. But in his second year, Sexton broke 20 points in both matchups with Charlotte. Cleveland is predicting a big jump out of Sexton as he looks like the future centerpiece. He, Kevin Love, and Andre Drummond will create a lethal double drag screen while the young Isaac Okoro is still learning the NBA. While the long term play may be Okoro, the opening day games ought to be the more savvy Sexton. 

Further, while rookie LaMelo Ball has really shined offensively in the preseason, he has struggled defensively. With the hype the Ball family brings, Sexton is just one of the dozens of young guards eager to put ‘Melo in his place. Embarrassing night potential is a big indicator of a great Fantasy Basketball night on the other side. 

John Wall vs Oklahoma City

A couple of months ago, Oklahoma City vs. Houston provided one of the most entertaining first-round matchups in the NBA Playoffs. Now, both teams look drastically different. The only reputational lockdown defender on Oklahoma City is Lu Dort, and his reputation is short. All indications are Houston will be starting James Harden, who famously drew Dort in the playoffs last August. 

That leaves no strong perimeter defender for John Wall. Wall played well in the preseason. But one thing stood out above his numbers: he wants to prove he is back, healthy, and able to dominate. Additionally, the Houston Rockets are looking to show off the firepower and entice James Harden to stay in Houston. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and George Hill look like they’re going to be giving the first-hand account of how explosive John Wall and the Rockets attack is after the game. Make sure your Fantasy Basketball team can, too. 

Devin Booker vs Dallas

Devin Booker is a pick I’m riding with all season, and hear me out:

In 2018, Chris Paul played with a “three and D” Forward, a rim running Center, an athletic wing that shot threes, and a dynamic scoring two-guard… That two-guard won the MVP and averaged a league-high 30 points a game. That team (Paul, PJ Tucker, Clint Capela, Trevor Ariza, and James Harden) was obviously much more experienced than this one (Paul, Jae Crowder, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Devin Booker), but the similarities are astounding. 

Booker at 24 playing like James Harden did at 28 would be a big, big jump. But his scoring at the same rate is not. Last season “Book” averaged 26.6 points, 6.5 assists, and 4.2 rebounds per game. This year, he gets to open with a Dallas defense that was at the bottom in every analytic last season. What better way to start of his MVP campaign? Look for Booker to have a big Fantasy Basketball night (and year). 

Day 3: No Games

Day 4: Christmas Day

Khris Middleton vs Golden State

The logic here is not unlike the logic surrounding Kyrie Irving on opening night. The Golden State Warriors, under Steve Kerr, have always and will always try and take away the top scoring threat. For Kyrie that was Kevin Durant, for Khris Middleton that is Giannis Antetokounmpo. Both second fiddlers will have their pick at defenders. Oubre may draw Middleton, where he won’t draw Kyrie. But the difference here is as simple as the difference in Kevin Durant and Giannis: how the backside defenders help. 

When Durant has the ball, he will shoot a lot of jumpshots over the top of defenses. While it’s hard to cover, it doesn’t hurt the backside as much as what Giannis does. When Giannis drives, it collapses a defense. It will pull Oubre off of the backside and open up Middleton in a way that is unguardable. In real basketball, the credit would go to Giannis… but in Fantasy Basketball, those stats all sit with Middleton. 

Jamal Murray vs LA Clippers

In the last matchup against the LA Clippers, Jamal Murray scored 40 points and the Denver Nuggets eliminated the Clippers from the playoffs after being down three games to one. Murray broke 20 points in each of the Nuggets’ wins and had more than five assists in every game of the series. 

If you thought the LA Clippers look disjointed in September, things have only gotten crazier in the aftermath. Clippers fans point to Ty Lue’s trapping defense in Cleveland, but many others point out Lue was on the sideline for the playoff collapse as well. The Clippers have several problems in their locker room and with their chemistry, and it doesn’t look like they’re fixing them in the first week of the season. This makes for big Fantasy Basketball stats on the opposing side. 

Day 5

Donovan Mitchell vs Minnesota

Minnesota is getting to “nut cutting time,” and coach Ryan Saunders may be coaching for his life. While the Timberwolves have a handful of Fantasy basketball studs, they don’t have a lot of defensive masterminds. D’Angelo Russell and Ricky Rubio are fun offensive point guards, but on defense they are turnstiles. 

Donovan Mitchell looks to take the next big leap in his career this year, and Minnesota offers a great opportunity in the first week. He scored 24 and 30 points against them last year, and they didn’t make any key backcourt signings to slow him down. That’s something you’ve got to account for on your Fantasy Basketball team. 

Andre Drummond vs Detroit

Andre Drummond is a league leading rebounder in an ultimate revenge game? And you’re going to try and keep him off the glass with a Plumlee brother? 

This is one of the easiest plays of the week. Drummond on the two five pick and roll will yield a lot of points, and he should clean the glass like Windex. Easy, easy play. Sorry Plumlees.

Day 6 

Brandon Ingram vs San Antonio

Last season, Brandon Ingram’s fourth season in the league and first in New Orleans, Tiny Dog had his first All-Star caliber season. Ingram scored 23.8 points, had 6.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. If things continue to trend upwards for the rising star, he may make the “Must Start” list a lot. 

The reason this matchup is his best of the week, however, is because of the potential matchup. LaMarcus Aldridge of San Antonio likely has to help cover Zion Williamson and Steven Adams from New Orleans. DeMar DeRozan will have his hands full trying to stay in front of the power of Eric Bledsoe and the finesse of Lonzo Ball. What does that leave for Ingram? Wide-open driving lanes and single man coverages. 

San Antonio and Greg Poppovic have bent rules to cover stars in the past, but this one may be plugging too many holes in the leaky dam. Leaky dams are bad for rivers, but great for Fantasy Basketball.

Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis vs Clippers 

If you didn’t have Oklahoma City and Houston as your favorite first-round matchup from the playoffs, you probably had the Mavs and Clippers. Doncic blossomed in his first ever playoff series, and Dallas really feels like they had the upset if Kristaps Porzingis had finished the series. 

Now, Porzingis is entering his second full season with the Dallas Mavericks. More importantly for Fantasy Basketball, he’s nearly three seasons from his ACL injury in February of 2018. The explosion was clearly returning as he played in the bubble, and all reports are he’s recovering from being dinged up there as well. In Game 1 of the first round, Porzingis hit the Clippers with 39 points and 16 boards before getting tossed. Even if he didn’t finish the game, that’s the kind of game you can’t miss out on potentially getting again. 

This of course takes us to Luka Doncic. Luka is a top player in most leagues, and you all know to “start your studs.” That’s true. But you should play him here, as opposed to the Suns or Lakers games, because the LA Clippers had no answer for him. He got whatever he wanted, however he wanted, whenever he wanted in their playoff series. He broke 35 points three times, had seven or more rebounds in each contest, and had nine or more assists in four of six games. Luka appears to be a guy that will always be playing into game shape, and this being the third game of the week for him is important because he’ll have his legs under him by this point. 

Most importantly, common belief of NBA GMs that most NBA players show their true ceiling in their third season. For Luka, that starts this week. Everyone anticipates greatness, and a marque game against the Clippers is exactly the stage to prove it. 

Keep up with my writing at Belly Up Sports, more Fantasy Basketball writing on the Belly Up Fantasy page, follow me on Twitter @painsworth512 for more, and give our podcast “F” In Sports a listen wherever you listen to podcasts!