“My balls was hot.” This quote will forever be engrained in Derrick Lewis’ career after his miraculous comeback win against Alexander Volkov at UFC 229. If you’re not familiar with the quote, you have to check out one of the most hilarious interviews we’ve ever seen. Despite being known mostly for that, Lewis has been a mainstay in the heavyweight division for a long time. However, he faces a tall task on Saturday night, when goes toe to toe with the #2 ranked heavyweight fighter, Curtis Blaydes. Here are our best bets for the card on Saturday.

Heavyweight Main Event: #2 Curtis Blaydes (-400) vs. #4 Derrick “The Black” Beast Lewis (+300)

Both of these fighters come into this event on win streaks, Blaydes has won four in a row, while Lewis has taken down his last three opponents. A lot of people will look at that +300 next to Lewis’ name and be enticed to take it, but we would be wary of that. In our most recent podcast episode, we discussed Blaydes being the next to get a title shot in the heavyweight division and that all starts here. With the odds being so heavily swayed on the winner, let’s find some prop value.

An enticing one is Blaydes in Round 2 at +450. In two of his last four wins, Blaydes has knocked his opponent out in the 2nd round. We think he will take a very cautious approach in Round 1 to try and avoid a flurry of punches from Lewis in the opening minutes of the fight. Once he gets a read on Lewis and wears him down a bit, he will go for the kill in Round 2. With that being said, neither of these fighters will take this to the ground, as Lewis is the only one with a submission victory and that came back in 2010. So, Blaydes by TKO is also a solid pick at -125. At the end of the day, we don’t see this fight lasting the full five rounds, as Lewis has never made it past the 4th round in his career.

Best Pick: Blaydes by TKO (-125)
Value Pick: Blaydes in Round 2 (+450)

Women’s Bantamweight Co-Main Event: #6 Ketlen “Fenomeno” Vieira (-275) vs. #7 Yana Kunitskaya (+215)

As Dana White always says in his social media previews, “If you don’t know, now you know!” If you don’t know about Vieira, well pull up a seat because we are about to tell you. She may be one of the most well-rounded fighters in the women’s division, next to Amanda Nunes of course. She can do it all with 18% of her wins coming by KO/TKO, 36% by submission and the cardio is there too with 45% of them coming by way of decision. Oh, did we also mention that she’s 10-1?

However, Kunitskaya is no slouch either as she lands 5.24 significant strikes per minute, which is twice as much as Ketlen’s 2.62. Between all of the firepower in this fight, and Ketlen being able to finish it on the ground as well, take the under of 2.5 rounds at +240. Also, Kunitskaya’s last two losses have come by TKO and Vieira has yet to knock someone out in her young UFC career, so she’s due.

Best Pick: u2.5 rounds (+240)
Value Pick: Vieira by TKO (+690)

Fight #3 – Featherweight Bout: Charles “Boston Strong” Rosa (-190) vs. Darrick Minner (+150)

Do you like grappling and fights on the ground? Well, then this is the fight for you! 64% of Rosa’s 13 victories have come by way of submission, while Minner boasts a submission victory percentage of 88%. Minner likes to keep his fights short, as his last decision (loss) was in 2017. Also, 5 of his last 6 fights were finished in the 1st round. That under of 2.5 at -175 is looking like a safe bet. A lot of money will be coming in on Rosa, as he’s likable and a good fighter, but he’s been streaky. Since his UFC debut in 2014, he’s won a fight and then subsequently lost a fight. With his last fight being a win, we think Minner keeps that streak alive here and takes this one home.

Best Picks: u2.5 rounds (-175) & Minner (+150)
Value Pick: Minner by submission (+410)

Fight #4 – Heavyweight Bout: Chris Daukaus (-175) vs. #10 Aleksei “The Boa Constrictor” Oleinik (+140)

We are BIG fans of Aleksei. He lives up to his nickname with 78% of his 59 career wins by submission. You read that right, FIFTY NINE wins. This dude has been around the block a time or two, and his opponent is fighting in just his 14th professional fight. Daukaus is a KO artist, with 90% of his wins coming by way of TKO. Like a lot of fights on this card, we don’t see this one going the distance, so the under of 2.5 rounds (-385) is safe. However, we don’t love those odds, so let’s take a look at some props.

Rarely will you see us dabble on both fighters, but this may be a fight where it’s lucrative to do so. While we are big fans of Oleinik, we just don’t see his game plan of getting it to the ground working. Daukas is aiming to become a full-time UFC fighter, as he is still working as a police officer when not fighting. He still has to take vacation time for fight week. That’s commitment and it will come into play in his thirst for victory. The only way Oleinik wins this fight is if it goes to a decision.

Best Pick: Daukaus (-175) & Daukaus by TKO (-130)
Value Bets: Daukaus in Round 1 (+150), Oleinik by decision (+900)

Fight #5 – Middleweight Bout: Phillip “Megatron” Hawes (-125) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+105)

These guys are two up-and-comers in a VERY crowded division looking to make a name for themselves. This will be Hawes’s second fight in a UFC event that isn’t Dana White’s contender series. Coincidently, this is also Imavov’s second UFC fight. It’s tough to pick a fight when there isn’t a lot of data, but Hawes LOVES to finish early. On his 5 fight winning streak, he has finished all of those opponents in the first round. That’s why we are leaning the under of 2.5 rounds at -195.

Best Pick: u2.5 rounds (-195)
Value Pick: Hawes in Round 1 (+275)

Fight #6 – Heavyweight Bout: Tom Aspinhall (-265) vs. Andre “The Pit Bull” Arlovski (+200)

Rarely do we see a main even with six fights, but here we are! Arlovski is a seasoned veteran with nearly 40 fights under his belt. Aspinhall is the exact opposite, a young up and comer fighting in his 12th professional bout. In his nine wins, Aspinhall has finished EVERY SINGLE ONE of them in the first round. Unfortunately for him, we don’t see that trend continuing. Arlovski is too much of a seasoned veteran to be finished or baited into an early finish. The Pit Bull has won two in a row, both by decision, so we think he’s training for longer fights. With Aspinhall not making it out of the first round since 2016 (a loss), that will be the key to his downfall. We like the veteran Arlovski at +200.

Best Pick: Arlovski (+200)
Value Pick: Arlovski by decision (+335)

Overall, it should be a great night of fights with a stacked and FREE card on ESPN+ starting at 8 PM EST. You can track all of our picks on the Action Network, as well as listen to us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. If you’re looking to bet with us you can check out Bovada, and our other affiliates like Blue Coolers. Best of luck and remember to gamble responsibly!