MARCH MADNESS IS HERE! In our opinion, it is one of the best times to gamble on sports. After the Covid-19 pandemic took this phenomenal sporting event away from us last year, we are not missing a minute of gambling action. Let’s dive into our favorite lines for the First Four and 1st round of the tournament. You can hear our full breakdown of the bracket on this week’s podcast on Apple and Spotify.

First Four (Thursday, March 18th)

1) #11 Drake (-1)  vs. #11 Wichita St. – 5:27pm CST

There was only one team in college basketball this year better ATS than Drake, and that was Navy. Drake is 20-6-1 ATS this season, so that line of -1 or -1.5 is way too enticing not to gamble on. Meanwhile, Wichita St. is 9-9-1 and coming off of a loss to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference tournament semi-finals.

2) #16 Appalachian St. vs. #16 Norfolk St. (+3) – 7:40pm CST

Norfolk St. is 12-8-1 ATS this season, however App St. is no slouch at 14-9-1. Norfolk is ranked 200 in KenPom’s offense efficiency ratings, while App St. is ranked 209. Defensively they are separated by just 0.7 points in KenPom’s adjusted defense efficiency ratings. Two VERY evenly matched teams, so we are leaning Norfolk (+3), but would advise buying it to +3.5 to be safe.

3) #11 Michigan St. (-2) vs. #11 UCLA – 8:57pm CST

Both of these teams have losing records ATS, so let’s look at a key indicator of teams coming into March. How did they play down the stretch? UCLA lost their last 4 and haven’t won a game in 4 weeks. Michigan St. isn’t breaking the mold either, as they have won 3 of their last 6 heading into the tournament, but have played much far superior competition in those games. In those 3 victories, they beat Ohio St., Indiana, and Michigan. Pretty impressive if you ask us, so buy the hook down to -2 and take the Spartans.

First Round Day 1 (Friday, March 19th)

We just want to preface this by saying, we are not going to gamble on every single first-round game. That would be silly and irresponsible, so let’s focus on the games we are betting on during the first two days of March Madness.

1) #14 Colgate vs. #3 Arkansas (-8.5) – 11:45am CST

Everyone and their brother are going to be on the over in this game (161) because of the style of play of both of these teams. They play fast, furious, and get up and down the floor in a hurry. However, 161 is high for a college basketball game. This would have hit in just 37% of Arkansas games this year. What you should be looking at is Arkansas’ 17-9-1 record ATS. Colgate has ZERO Quad 1 wins compared to Arkansas’ 6. This one won’t be close.

2) #9 Georgia Tech vs. #8 Loyola-Chicago (-2.5) – 3pm CST

Loyola-Chicago has been straight MURDERING teams and covering the spread while doing it (16-9-1 ATS). What’s worrisome about this line is the fact that Georgia Tech is red hot coming into the tournament having won 8 in a row and covering the spread in all of those games except for one. However, it was announced yesterday that Sister Jean, the lucky charm behind the Ramblers’ 2018 Final Four run, will be in attendance. You can’t beat that March Madness magic, can you?

3) #12 Oregon St. (+8) vs. #5 Tennessee – 3:30pm CST

Everyone loves a 12/5 upset in the NCAA tournament. While we don’t see the Beavers winning this game outright, we do love them to cover in this one. Oregon St. rattled off 3 straight victories to take home the Pac-12 crown and steal a tournament bid, and it doesn’t hurt they are 19-9-1 ATS this season. Over the last month, Tennessee has been just 3-6 ATS. You decide where you want to lean, but we will take the Beavers in this one.

4) #9 Wisconsin vs. #8 North Carolina (-1.5) – 6:10pm CST

LOCK ALERT! If you take just one piece of gambling advice from this article, take this one. The Badgers (12-15-1 ATS) have lost 7 of their last 11 games and 6 of their last 8. They are cold as ice. North Carolina (13-13-2 ATS) has won 4 of 6 heading into the tournament. Again, betting in March is betting who’s hot, so take UNC and cash that ticket.

5) #11 Syracuse vs. #6 San Diego St. (-2.5) – 8:40pm CST

Syracuse is going to be on a lot of folk’s radar as a potential upset team, but we aren’t buying into the hype. Buddy Boeheim played out of his mind in the ACC tournament, and we don’t see that streak continuing. Cuse is ranked 41st in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency compared to SDSU who’s ranked 20th. Meanwhile, SDSU is one of the best defensive teams in the country ranking 11th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating. Buy the hook to -2.5 if you need to from -3.

6) #12 Winthrop (+7) & ML (+220) vs. #5 Villanova

If you’re going to bet one 12 over 5 upset in the tournament, please choose this one. Villanova is coming into the tournament without senior guard Collin Gillespie, the 2nd leading scorer on the team, and Justin Moore is dealing with a nagging ankle sprain. Winthrop has lost one game all year long and they boast a 13-11 ATS record. We like them ML as underdogs, but if you can’t justify the squeeze then lay the points in an easy W for the pocketbook.

First Round Day 2 (Sat. March 20th) aka “Underdog Day”

1) #13 UNC Greensboro (+11) vs. #4 Florida St. – 11:45am CST

UNCG was 17-12 ATS, although they were favored a lot in those contests and are only 1-2 ATS as an underdog. Florida St. boasts an 11-9-2 ATS record themselves, but since coming back from a Covid related break on Feb. 13th they are 3-6 ATS. Furthermore, 5 out of the last 8 games featuring 13/4 seeds have been decided by single digits. March Madness is all about underdogs, so why not kick off our underdog betting day with a bang?

2) #14 Eastern Washington (+10.5) vs. #3 Kansas – 12:15pm CST

Eastern Washington is one of those teams that can score at will averaging 78 PPG, but Kansas is one of the top defensive teams in the country ranking 6th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. However, they had to bow out of the Big 12 tournament due to Covid related issues in their locker room. It remains to be seen whether or not they will be missing players, but that much time off and limited practice can kill team chemistry. We like EWU to cover here, and some experts think they might win.

3) #12 UCSB (+7.5) & ML (+260) vs. #5 Creighton – 2:30pm CST

UCSB is scorching coming into the tournament having only lost ONE game in 2021. Gauchos’ senior guard JaQuori McLaughlin averages 16.2 PPG and shoots 48.9% from the field, including 40.4% from beyond the 3-point arc. They have 4 players who average more than 24 minutes per game that shoot above 35% from 3. That is dangerous and if they get hot, as Georgetown did against Creighton in the Big East title game, they’ll win this one by 10+. (P.S. USCB could make a deep run in March Madness this year, so stay tuned for a good future bet on them later!)

4) #10 Maryland (+3.5) vs. #7 UConn – 6:10pm CST

Yes, we know UConn is one of the best teams in the country ATS this year boasting a 16-5-1 record, but Maryland has some MAJOR wins under their belt. They’ve beaten Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Rutgers. Not to mention they went through the gauntlet of the Big 10. UConn did come on as of late, but the quality of competition they have on their resume (wins over USC, Seton Hall, and Xavier) just doesn’t compare with the Big 10. We solely picked this one based on conference strength, and buy the hook to +3.5 if needed.

5) #14 Ohio (+7.5) vs. #4 Virginia – 6:15pm CST

Virginia is also dealing with Covid issues after backing out of the ACC tournament due to a positive test in their program. Much like Kansas, we see UVA (11-12-1 ATS) having issues getting that chemistry back. They also only covered ONE game in their last 6. Meanwhile, Ohio is 14-7 ATS this season and a whopping 11-4 in 2021. The Bobcats are rolling and we think they could win this game, but the spread is easy money.

6) #10 VCU vs #7 Oregon (-5.5) – 8:57pm CST

The only favorite that we like to cover on Saturday. What a gauntlet of a day this will be and it all caps off with the Ducks. Oregon did run into a buzz saw of an Oregon St. team in the Pac-12 tournament, but we still like them to cover this one based on one statistic. VCU is just 2-5 vs. Quad 1 teams, which is where Oregon lies. The Ducks won’t falter twice in the same month against an inferior opponent.

Value Bets for Rest of Tournament

1) Illinois to win the NCAA Tournament (+700) 

It’s tough to argue that Illinois is one of the hottest teams entering the tournament. They’ve lost just one game since Jan. 19th. They do play in one of the toughest corners of the bracket, but if they make it to the Final Four, there is no doubt they take the entire thing home avenging their 2005 title loss to UNC.

2) Iowa to make Final Four (+450) 

The last 12 tournament winners have a few things in common: top 7 offensive ranking according to KenPom, top 20 defense, one (or multiple) senior leaders on their team, a high percentage scorer, and a clutch shooter/3-point shooter. Do you know who checks all of those boxes? 

Iowa. 

They also have one of the easiest corners of the bracket in our opinion and are a mere lock to make the Final Four. You can also bet on them to win the entire thing at (+1900) if you’re feeling real gutsy.

3) LSU to make Final Four (+1200) 

While we don’t have them making it in our bracket, LSU is a dangerous team and is well suited to upset Michigan, as well as Alabama, who they played down to the wire in the SEC Championship game. Plus who doesn’t love a Cinderella in March Madness? 5 out of the last 10 tournaments have featured a team seeded 8 or higher in the Final Four.

4) Winthrop to make Sweet 16 (+1100) 

You already know that we LOVE Winthrop to beat Villanova in Round 1, but we also like them to beat Purdue in a matchup that just screams Matt Painter screwing up.

5) USCB to make Sweet 16 (+1100)

We teased a potential USCB and Ohio 2nd round matchup on our podcast this week and if that does happen we think UCSB will for sure be in the Sweet 16.

Remember to always gamble responsibly! We will be releasing picks throughout March Madness (including the 2nd round on Sunday morning) on the Action Network, so follow us there. We’ll be back next week for a Sweet Sixteen breakdown. Enjoy March Madness!