This edition of the Foresight is focusing on identifying breakout tight ends and tight end sleepers for the 2021 season. In Dynasty leagues it’s essential to stay ahead of the curve and recognize stars before they become expensive. Therefore, I will break down my tight ends into 2 categories: tight ends ready to breakout and guys that are one year away.

Tight Ends who can breakout this year

Leagues have started to adapt their scoring to TE premium. Allowing tight ends to score more points in PPR than all other positions, it’s evident that fantasy owners have to start scouting tight ends better in order to find the studs. Prior to TE premium scoring, tight ends were seen as a position to address later in drafts. This is understandable as fantasy scoring doesn’t favor when tight ends block, which for some is half the job. Tight End is a niche group in fantasy, but outside of the top 5, it’s a crapshoot. Therefore, you should be scouring the waiver wires and draft boards, taking chances on potential breakout stars. Well, look no further than these 4 tight ends who have breakout season written all over them.

Irv Smith Jr-Minnesota Vikings

In 2020, Irv Smith Jr took a step forward in becoming the sole tight end for the Vikings. He put up 30 receptions (recs), 365 yards (yds), and 5 TDs on 43 targets. Smith got a good amount of his recs in the red zone, putting up 7 recs, 49 yds, and 5 TDs. Smith became a beast where it mattered most, setting him up to be a breakout star this upcoming season.

Irv Smith Jr is ready to become a big-time tight end for the Minnesota Vikings. This offseason has been good to Smith, starting with the departure of longtime tight end Kyle Rudolph. This move has officially opened up 37 targets for Smith to take on next season. I don’t expect Smith to yield 100 targets this year due to the number of mouths to feed in Minnesota. However, I do expect him to see a good portion of the red-zone targets, and become a TD machine.

The Foresight on Smith is that he should become a juggernaut this year with his strong red-zone presence and the absence of Kyle Rudolph. Next year looks like a big TD year for “Swearvin” Smith. My prediction is that he’ll put up 60 recs, 650 yds, and 10-15 TDs.

Cole Kmet-Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet spent his rookie year behind established vet Jimmy Graham. In 2020 he put up 28 recs, 243 yds, and 2 TDs on 44 targets with a respectable 4.9 YAC. Looking back at his Junior year at Notre Dame, he had respectable numbers with 43 recs, 515 yds, and 6 TDs. What really pops out on his tape is his size and physicality. That combo is perfect for the red zone. Getting Kmet the ball in open space is going to be a nightmare for secondary players. Boasting a 4.7 sec 40-yard dash, Kmet is going to be a weapon for the Bears to unleash. If you’re reading this, go find whoever has him in your league and start negotiating.

Cole Kmet might be a major steal at his current tight end rank of TE17. Targets are the main reason why I’m backing Kmet, Jimmy Graham‘s targets to be exact. Graham last year had 76 targets, 19 of which came in the red zone; these targets turned into 13 recs and 85 yds and 7 TDs. Now that Graham is teetering with retirement, we could see those targets transfer to Kmet. While there aren’t many guys like Graham who have ever played football, Kmet does measure up in physical size. He can easily become the big red-zone target that either Andy Dalton or Justin Fields would be thankful to have this year.

The Foresight on Kmet is he’ll need Jimmy Graham to commit to retiring this offseason to see his numbers skyrocket. For the sake of this prediction, I will assume Graham is retiring. So my prediction is that Kmet will become a big-time red-zone target for the Bear’s new QB with 70 recs, 600-750 yds, and 12 TDs. Let’s Go, Cole Kmet!

Dallas Goedert-Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert‘s stat-line last season was 524 yds, 3 TDs on 46 catches in 11 games played by the fourth-year tight end. A stat that stood out that year was the 4.2 recs/game, the highest of his career. He would’ve been on pace for 94 targets, if not for missing 5 games with injuries. He is a fluid route-running tight end, who can separate well and shows some good open field awareness. Goedert showed flashes of potential with 3 games over 15 fantasy pts last year.

This year there are plenty of factors working in Goedert’s favor. First off, 2020 was the first year where Goedert took the field for at least 80% of Eagles offensive snaps in every game (except week 1) that he finished. This shows to me that the Eagles are ready to make Goedert the starting tight end, and this offseason it became apparent with the team shopping Zach Ertz. Goedert and quarterback Jalen Hurts also developed a rapport in their 2 full games together, with Goedert averaging 7 targets/game. Hurts will most likely be utilizing Goedert as one of his main weapons this upcoming year along with Devonta Smith and Miles Sanders.

The Foresight on Dallas Goedert is that he’ll become a top 5 TE in 2021. I see the Eagles as a team that is going to have to be an explosive offense and Goedert should be targeted heavily. Goedert should have a career year this year and can be considered a top TE and flex option. I’m predicting 70 recs, 750-850 yds, and 10 TDs season.

Jalen Hurts has been working out with his young weapons

Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, John Hightower #NewEra
🎥 @JaySpinks12 @BoobieMilesXXIV pic.twitter.com/QisH51aX23

— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) May 5, 2021

Anthony Firkser-Tennessee Titans

What makes Anthony Firkser an interesting candidate for a breakout player is the confidence the Titans have in him. Letting Jonnu Smith walk in free agency and not picking up a tight end in the draft is a clear signal that Firkser will be getting a shot at tight end. Jonnu Smith logged 8 TDs last year inside the red zone, getting targeted 17 times and catching 10 recs. In an ideal world, you could assume that the numbers would move onto Firkser and make him a value at his draft position. With Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis gone that opens up 157 targets and more importantly 24 red-zone targets. Based on those stats alone, I’m willing to draft Firkser at the value of TE 32.

The Foresight on Firkser is that he’ll have plenty of opportunities to show he can produce this year. The sheer targets that he has the chance to receive make him a steal in all formats. The only real threat to Firkser is AJ Brown, who will be getting a Devante Adams-like target share. My prediction is that Firkser is in a position to explode with 70 recs, 800 yds, and 10 TDs. I have a really good feeling about Firkser this year, guys.

Players who need a year…

These are the players you put on your taxi squad in dynasty leagues; the guys your incubating and waiting to see if your golden goose hatches. I am a fan of players with big potential. Some fantasy owners play strictly for the season…I play for the seasons to come. Being able to dominate leagues makes it essential to look at what players have a chance at a bigger role a year or two down the line. Your taxi squad is an excellent tool that is used by the brightest minds in fantasy football, to keep young players. These are guys who may be a year away due to injury or maybe just a crowded depth chart. These are the guys that in a year may be making you pay for trading them away or passing them up.

Harrison Bryant-Cleveland Browns

In 2019, Harrison Bryant, the John Mackey Award Winner (Best Tight End in College), logged 65 recs, 1004 yds, and 7 TDs. In 2020, Bryant got drafted into a crowded Browns tight end room, alongside former 1st round pick, David Njoku, and newly signed Austin Hooper. Bryant made the most of his 3rd string opportunities, putting up 24 recs, 238 yds, and 3 TDs in 15 games played. In week 7 against the Bengals, Bryant caught 4 of 5 targets for 56 yds and 2 TDs. That game gave us a look into how valuable Bryant can become for the Browns.

Harrison Bryant is on this list because he is an under-the-radar prospect that may blow up in a year. Bryant is going into his 2nd year with the Browns and is looking to carve out a permanent role with the team. He is currently the 3rd string tight end, but that could change within the next year as David Njoku is going into his final season, and doesn’t look like he’ll resign with the Browns.

The Foresight on Harrison Bryant is that he has the potential to become a fantasy-relevant tight end, though he will be buried on the Browns depth chart in 2021. Don’t expect much to anything from Bryant this year, because barring an injury he won’t see the field. He’s a taxi squad player whose upside is strong if he is called upon in 2021.

Adam Trautman-New Orleans Saints

Adam Trautman is a stud just waiting to be drafted in round 13 or higher. Trautman’s senior year at Dayton was outstanding, tallying 70 recs, 916 yds, and 14 TDs. He stands out amongst prospects with his outstanding hands and 6’6 frame. Trautman’s college highlights were a display of contested catches and excellent intangibles for a future red-zone stat stuffer.

Trautman’s rookie year was what you would expect from a tight end 2 in any offense with15 recs on 16 targets for 171 yds and 1 TD, and a 7.8 YAC. A couple of stats to point out are his 93% catch rate, with 0 drops and 11.4 yds/rec. Coming into 2021 unopposed at tight end, Trautman will be looking to establish himself as the number 3 weapon in the Saints offense. The main question is who will be the quarterback of the offense, Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston? With Hill, we can safely assume goal-line and red-zone work will be run-oriented, thus Trautman may become irrelevant. If Winston wins the starting job then I believe Trautman has top 10 potential written all over him.

The Foresight on Adam Trautman is that he may be quarterback dependent. If he plays with Winston I think his ceiling is high, but with Hill, I think he may be TD dependent and strapped with a low floor. My predictions with Winston are 75-80 recs, 800+ yds, and 12 TDs, but with Hill, 45-60 recs 600 yds and 5-8 TDs.

Pat Freiermuth-Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freirmuth tallied 92 recs for 1185 yds and 16 TDs while averaging 12.9 yds/rec for his entire Penn State career. Freirmuth’s college highlights show me a guy who should translate to the NFL at a high level. If you catch any of his tape from Penn State, you’ll see he has great hands and is a good route runner. He is someone who can translate well in the NFL and become a starting tight end in a year.

Pat Freirmuth is set up to become a valuable tight end in the next couple of years with the Steelers. This year he’ll be behind veteran tight end, Eric Ebron, but will get his chance to be a starter in 2022 when Ebron becomes a free agent. Ideally, Freiermuth will take over in 2022 and become a threat for either a returning Ben Roethlisberger or whoever takes over. This makes him a perfect project player to store on your taxi squads and wait for him to get his chance.

The Foresight on Pat Freiermuth is that he has the potential to blow up when Eric Ebron leaves. That being said, draft this guy in your rookie drafts and draft him on the back end of your dynasty drafts. Get him on your taxi squads because he is someone who can produce for you in years to come.

Honorable Mentions

Thaddeus Moss-Washington Football Team

Blake Jarwin/Dalton Schultz-Dallas Cowboys

Brevin Jordan-Houston Texans

Albert Okwuegbunam- Denver Broncos

Hunter Long-Miami Dolphins

Conclusion

The importance of this series is to highlight some players that have a chance to breakout this year or the next. When playing dynasty formats, players should want to identify breakout candidates and get them while they are cheap. That’s how you stay ahead of the competition.

If you liked this and want to check out more content like it, visit https://bellyupfantasysports.com/. You can also follow me @semtexmex93.

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