Weekly High-Value Bets

For the next week, I will be offering a daily NFL future bet. These future bets will be ones that I believe to be high-value bets. That doesn’t necessarily mean I predict these will happen. Instead, they are bets that I think are more likely to occur than the betting line gives them credit for. These are mostly considered high-risk, high-reward plays. However, I have real justifications as to why I believe the bets can hit. Therefore, if you are looking to win a large prize off of a single future bet, this is the article series for you!

Finding The Value

Week 14 of the NFL is upon us. With only four more games to play, it is officially the time of the season where a single game can make or break a team’s playoff hopes. It’s also the time of year where us football nerds can utilize tools like the ESPN NFL Playoff Machine to calculate all the possible outcomes for the remainder of the season. I mean as a Broncos fan all I can really hold onto at this point is calculating the crazy combinations of upsets it would take for them to grab a wild card spot. Now, I know creating a fantasy world where your last place team runs the table en route to the playoffs can be borderline therapeutic. But false hope is not healthy. Let it go. However, this tool is also great for visualizing the outcomes that are actually realistic in the 2020 NFL season.

At the conclusion of Week 13, I sat down with the NFL playoff machine. I played through all the different scenarios that I thought could plausibly occur to finish the season. In doing so, I stumbled upon a few high value future bets. These outcomes may not be the most likely. However, I believe that they are more likely than the sport book’s lines are giving them credit for. Therefore, these future bets could be the ticket to a massive payday, if you’re willing to take the risk.

Betting Lines Explained

Before I dive into which future bets I believe boast a high value, I want to explain how betting lines work for those who may be new to sports betting. If you are already a betting expert just looking for picks, go ahead and skip this paragraph. However, for all the novice bettors out there, welcome! I’m sure by now you’ve heard some story of a friend or family member winning a huge sum of money sports betting. And now you want a piece of that action. Unfortunately, you don’t quite understand how it all works. Well, allow me to explain just how betting lines work, so you can be the next big winner.

First off, betting lines will be listed as a number that starts with a “+” or “-” symbol. Typically, the number listed with the minus symbol in front will represent the odds that the favorite wins the match. Contrarily, the line with the plus symbol in front represents the odds that the underdog will win.

Now what do those numbers even mean? Well, for betting lines showing a minus symbol, the number represents how much money you would need to wager in order for that bet to pay out $100. For instance, a line of -150 means you would need to wager $150 on that line in order to win an additional $100. The underdog lines then work inversely to the favorite lines. A line that shows a plus symbol means that a $100 wager would win you the amount that the line is worth. For instance, a line of +150 means a $100 wager would win $150.

High-Value Bets

Now everyone reading at least has a base understanding of how betting lines work. In this article series, I am trying to identify seven high value future bets in the NFL. This means that I am looking for underdog lines with large numbers that I think are more likely to occur than the line would indicate. On a week to week basis, the sports books have broad access to data and trends that help them set lines for each individual game. However creating lines for future bets is more difficult for sports books. This is because so many factors will end up playing into the outcomes that are multiple weeks away. Especially in 2020, anything can happen. With that being said, allow me to identify my first high value NFL future bet that could fatten your wallet by season’s end.

AFC North Champs: Cleveland Browns

If you’re still reading this article after reading the headline above, thank you. I’m sure plenty of football fans have dismissed this notion entirely. I mean the Steelers were just 11-0, and now I’m taking the division away from them after one loss on a short week? The concept itself screams recency bias. However, this bet is much more calculated than just overreacting to a bad Pittsburgh loss and great Cleveland win in Week 13.

Why the Steelers Won’t Win

First, the Steelers have looked stellar on defense this year. No team will get an easy win versus the Steelers because of that nasty defensive unit. However, the Steelers have had one glaring weakness in 2020. It’s their running game. The Steelers have simply struggled moving the ball on the ground this year. And for the first eleven weeks it didn’t really matter. This is because the Steelers defense and Big Ben’s passing game had been lighting up a weak schedule all season long. And that’s fine. Except, do you know what wins football games once the cold weather rolls around? That’s right, a good running game. Pittsburgh’s toughest stretch of schedule is now underway. Therefore, I find it reasonable to think that they collect some L’s at the end of this season. Especially since the Titans COVID issues forced them to have their bye week in Week 4.

How the Steelers Won’t Win

The Steelers currently sit at 11-1 with four more games coming up. These games are at Buffalo, at Cincinnati, home against Indianapolis, and at Cleveland. Having three road games in four weeks with three playoff teams in the mix is not a recipe for success. I think fatigue, a poor running game, bad weather, and tough matchups will make life tough for Pittsburgh. Therefore, it seems reasonable to believe the Steelers could only win one of these four games. And that win would likely against a really poor Cincinnati squad. If they were to drop the other three games, that would leave Pittsburgh with a final record of 12-4. This puts them in danger of losing the division, as Cleveland currently only has three losses.

Why the Browns Will Win

These are not the Cleveland Browns we have all grown to love over the past, well, entire history of the Browns organization. For starters, they’ve managed to play the same quarterback for over a full season. For a while there I didn’t know if the Browns were capable of playing under three quarterbacks per season. And I am not very high on Baker Mayfield‘s talent overall. However, given the absurd number of weapons he has around him, he just has to not lose the games himself.

Now, I anticipate the Steelers will struggle moving the ball in the impending cold weather. But that is in no way a concern I have surrounding the Browns. They have the best running back duo in the NFL with stud running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. We’ve already seen Cleveland play a couple games in horrendous weather. And in those games, they proved emphatically that they can win in those conditions. Bad weather actually seems to help the Browns. This is because it forces gameplay towards their strengths of running the ball and stopping the run.

How the Browns Will Win

The Browns are currently 9-3 with four games remaining. Those four games are home against Baltimore, at the Giants, at the Jets, and home against Pittsburgh. They would likely need to win all four games down the stretch to win the division, but I think that is actually quite plausible.

First, the Jets clearly don’t even want to win (just ask Derek Carr and Henry Ruggs.) So that game can effectively go in the W column. The Ravens and Giants won’t be easy wins. However, the Ravens are a team that is playing worse than they should be, so Cleveland may be able to capitalize on their recent struggles. On the other hand, the Giants are a team without much elite talent that is playing at a level above expectations. And while they were able to pull an upset win over the Seahawks in Week 13, I don’t see them being as capable of stopping the rushing attack of Cleveland.

Now, if Cleveland is able to sweep those three winnable games, their division title will come down to a Week 17 game against Pittsburgh. Something about this game already feels like the Browns will swipe it out from under Tomlin’s crew. It will almost certainly be a brutal cold weather game in Cleveland in January. That’s a huge advantage for the superior running game in Cleveland. On top of that, Cleveland will likely have more momentum and desire entering this game. Cleveland has been the doormat of the NFL for decades while their divisional rival Steelers have been a perennial playoff team. The opportunity to claim that throne, even for one season, would be all the motivation this Browns team needs to win the game.

Claiming the Value

So I have laid out the most likely scenario, I believe, in which the Browns win the 2020 AFC North title. While there certainly are a lot of ways that this divisional race can play out, I believe the one laid out above is among the most likely. And for that reason, this becomes a must-bet line because of the ridiculously large betting line being offered by Draftkings Sportsbook. The current line for the Browns to win the AFC North on Draftkings Sportsbook is at +1200.

That’s a betting line that offers value much higher than I think it should be, considering the relative likelihood of the outcome. I know betting on the Browns to succeed and the Steelers to fail feels like a ludicrous concept. But for those brave enough to tail this bet, I believe there’s a good chance you could be seeing some extra spending money in your future. If you do decide to tail this bet, have fun and please bet responsibly. Good luck!

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