It’s the first “quiet” period of NFL offseason, between the “legal tampering” period of free agency and the three-day-long celebration of The Shield that is the NFL Draft. It’s the “eye of the storm.” Between now and the start of the 2022 NFL Draft on April 28, we’re going division-by-division to look at what moves teams still need to make that will have an impact on 2022’s fantasy rosters. We’ve already touched on the AFC North and NFC North. Our virtual tour now turns north-eastward, with a stop-over in southern Florida. Here’s a look at the AFC East, in order of 2021 final standings.

Note: All 2021 fantasy point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted.

Buffalo Bills: AFC East Champions

After years of playing second- (and third-, and fourth-) fiddle to the New England Patriots in the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills finally broke through with a division championship in 2020. Josh Allen (2021 QB1) and his teammates repeated the feat last season, the first non-Patriot team to repeat as division champions since the Bills won four straight division crowns from 1988 to 1991. The Indianapolis Colts were the fifth team in the division then. Current head coach Sean McDermott was a junior in high school. Allen wasn’t even born yet.

With the team’s success has come some fantasy success, chiefly in the form of Allen, who has put together back-to-back QB1 seasons after finishing as QB6 in 2019. His main target the past two seasons has been Stefon Diggs (WR7), who has proven himself one of the best receivers in the league. The Bills’ DST has also scored well in that timeframe, finishing as DST8 and DST4. Beyond that, however, the cupboard’s been pretty bare. Buffalo’s fantasy feast is more of a picked-over buffet than a smorgasbord of high-end fantasy talent. That seems strange when you consider Buffalo led the NFL in point differential in 2021.

The Bills, to their credit, haven’t been resting on their laurels. The team brought in Jamison Crowder to offset the losses of Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. Not to be outdone by the Patriots (well, not lately, anyway), Buffalo also signed O.J. Howard in free agency. Howard will pair with Dawson Knox to give the Bills a dynamic two-tight end set. The team also brought in guard Rodger Saffold to shore up an offensive line ranked 17th by Pro Football Focus.

Bills’ Bottom Line

How, then, do we improve on the league’s number three total offense? Well, for starters, you beef up that offensive line, literally and figuratively. The Bills will return starters at center and both tackles to team with the afore-mentioned Saffold. But outside of left tackle Dion Dawkins, no one on last year’s line was anything to write home about. Buffalo doesn’t have anything special for draft capital, with the 25th overall pick, and only their original slotted picks in rounds two through five. But there’s a chance an interior line prospect like Tyler Linderbaum or Kenyon Green could fall to them at 25. That would be hard to pass up, even to address a skill position.

Oh, but how much fun would it be to see them address skill positions? Number two wideout Gabriel Davis (WR58) is probably better suited as a playmaking third option. Crowder has underrated skill, but perpetually overrated fantasy value. If you’ve read the previous entries in our Pre-Draft Needs series, you know how I feel about guys like Crowder. This is a deep receiver draft. Finding an additional actual threat opposite Diggs would raise both his and Allen’s prospects. Scary! The other thing this offense needs is clarity at running back. It’s been Devin Singletary‘s job to lose, then win, then lose again for several years. Zack Moss has talent but not results. Duke Johnson was brought in because recently inefficient, 28-year-old third down backs can add life to any backfield (he wrote, sarcastically.) Singletary needs to step up, or step aside for a back the Bills could confidently take at 25.

New England Patriots: Second Place AFC East

Bill! Billy-boy! Bill-a-BONG! The Billmeister! The Bill Collector! Comin’ around to get your payment because the RENT’S DUE! Billiam! Kill Bill: Volume 2! Billayyyy!

We all would love to see Bill Belichick’s reaction to Rob Schneider’s Richmeister at the Gillette Stadium copier. Unfortunately, the only thing we’re less likely to see is a true bell-cow running back in the Patriots’ backfield. In life, you can count on three things: death, taxes, and complete, utter frustration in the event you have a Patriot running back on your fantasy roster. And disappointment if you have a Patriot wide receiver. So, four things. And the Patriots having a useable fantasy DST. So, five, then. Five things you can count on in this life. And at least three of them are Bill Belichick’s doing.

The Patriots didn’t like life post-Tom Brady, so they went out and ordered themselves a Wish.com Brady. You know – looks kinda-sorta close, a little smaller, maybe works out OK but probably not as good as if you’d just ordered the Brady on Amazon in the first place, but NO, you saw that Wish ad and you thought, “This looks too good to be true.” So you PayPal-ed, and it was too good to be true. Because there’s only one Brady, and if you want it, you’re going to have to pay for it. But, it does come with free shipping.

(Ok, maybe Mac Jones isn’t quite Wish Brady. More like…Great Value Brady. Good enough, cheaper, and your kids’ll never know the difference if they’ve never experienced the good stuff.)

Patriots’ Bottom Line

And after that hard-hitting analysis, here’s a little something for your entertainment. New England had the ninth-ranked offensive line in the league last year, according to PFF. Both starting guards from that unit have departed, however, leaving the interior of the Patriots’ front very suspect. An addition or two on the offensive line may help stave off any negative regression there.

The Patriots return more or less all of their core skill position players from last year. Damien Harris (RB14) was the not-unquestioned leader of the backfield. Rhamondre Stevenson (RB47) showed just enough potential to ensure fantasy managers would once again be caught unawares by another Belichickian horror story. (Just let Damien eat, Bill!) Devante Parker was an OK addition if you like adding an inconsistent fantasy producer to a perpetually underperforming receiving corps.

All that to say that the two/three-ish things fantasy managers need most from the Patriots are to give Harris the rock 18+ times per game and add at least one actual threat at wide receiver. The New England receiver room has been waiting for a break-out receiver since Randy Moss, and there ain’t one in that room currently. Unfortunately, about the only thing Belichick hasn’t gotten right in New England is adding receiving talent. So brace yourselves, everyone, for more Patriot success on the gridiron, and frustration on your fantasy apps.

Miami Dolphins: Third Place AFC East

The Miami Dolphins may have had the most interesting offseason of any team in the league. At one point considered the frontrunners in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, they ultimately found the asking price too rich for their blood and moved on. Since then, they’ve reiterated their commitment (for now) to incumbent quarterback Tua Tagovailoa while subsequently surrounding him with almost an entirely new offense. Suddenly, the Dolphins look like a problem in the AFC East and a potential fantasy goldmine.

They pulled off a shocker of a trade for Tyreek Hill (WR6). They also brought in ex-Cowboy Cedrick Wilson (WR45,) giving Tua a three-deep receiver group with perhaps the most explosive top pair of wideouts in the league. Chase Edmonds (RB34) and Raheem Mostert were signed to remake the running back room (Myles Gaskin, we hardly knew ye.) Connor Williams will be a big improvement at one of the guard spots. And in a high-profile-yet-underappreciated move, former Saints Pro-Bowl tackle Terron Armstead was brought in to be a big fish at left tackle. Armstead and Williams completely transform the left side of a line that was ranked worst overall by PFF last season.

Dolphins’ Bottom Line

The free agency bonanza was a necessary evil. The Dolphins entered the offseason with one of the league’s best salary cap situations. The Hill trade devastated the Dolphins’ draft capital for this season and gutted day three next season. With only four picks remaining (a third, fourth, and two sevenths), Miami can’t count on bringing in a difference-maker in the draft. The crazy thing about it, though? With all they’ve spent, they still have the cap space to bring in just about whatever is needed after signing their draft class.

So what are those needs? Post-shopping spree, the skill positions are pretty full. There is enough playmaking talent to score early and often, both real and fantasy points. The backfield situation is a potential point MONSTER but will be hard to navigate early for fantasy managers. Last season’s RB25 (Gaskin) is the third-stringer, for cryin’ out loud. IF (big IF) a leader emerges, he could be a league winner-type.

Hill is a slight fantasy fade compared to his lofty ranking in recent seasons. Waddle will help Hill, and vice-versa. Hill coexisted with Travis Kelce in Kansas City; both were able to put up giant fantasy numbers. Tua, though, is not Patrick Mahomes. Logic dictates the Dolphins inquired on Watson for the same reasons Cleveland did; they weren’t convinced their top long-term option was currently on the roster. To unlock the full potential of his weapons, Tua needs to show enough improvement to remove Miami’s doubts in him. And no draft capital or cap space can buy that for Miami.

Past that, additions are still needed on the line. They may be able to find a starter in the third or fourth round, but with their cap space, a veteran option like J.C. Tretter is still on the table.

New York Jets: Fourth Place AFC East

Theoretically, when you start at the bottom, there’s no way to go but up. That’s the hope in New York Jersey, at least. Since last making the playoffs in 2010, the Jets have finished last in the AFC East seven out of eleven seasons. In 2021, the Jets ranked last in the league in several important offensive statistical categories:

-Total Offense
-Points Per Game
-Third Down Conversion Percentage
-Red Zone Percentage
-Rushing Touchdowns

Zach Wilson was QB30 on the year. Matt Ammendola was K32. Tight End Ryan Griffin was TE36. To put a bow on it, in a passing-oriented league, the Jets’ passing offense ranked 32nd in Expected Points Contributed, at -43.13. Think about that. The Jets’ passing offense essentially gave away over seven touchdowns more than they contributed on the season. Needless to say, there weren’t many offensive highlights for Robert Saleh‘s team. With a DST that ranked 31st in fantasy, the Jets’ Gang Green nickname took on an entirely new level of meaning for fantasy managers.

It’s not all doom-and-gloom in New York Jersey, though. The offensive line ranked 11th in PFF’s end-of-season list and welcomes free agent Laken Tomlinson to man left guard. That will allow the versatile Alijah Vera-Tucker to move to right guard. Running back Michael Carter (RB29) looks like a guy, as long as Mike LaFleur resists the temptation to let any of Carter’s much less-capable back-ups get too involved in the offense. And 2021 second-rounder Elijah Moore flashed some exciting potential as a target for Wilson.

Jets’ Bottom Line

With the strength of the entire team being the offensive line, there’s reason to be more optimistic about the Jets’ fantasy hopes than last year’s results would suggest. With a less-convoluted backfield hierarchy, Carter should be at worst a serviceable RB2-type player. The free agent signings of C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin give the Jets a versatile tight end room, with Conklin an intriguing red-zone target. It will take a minor miracle for Wilson to show the kind of growth in one offseason to raise him to fantasy relevance.

Offensively, the area the Jets could really make a significant jump in would be at wide receiver. Moore is a bit undersized. Corey Davis has had some past success, but is coming off a season in which he missed nine games due to injury and has only played a full (at the time) 16 once in his career. Jamison Crowder was lost to Buffalo in the division-wide game of Fruit Basket Upset: Wide Receiver Edition. And the returning Braxton Berrios is much more valuable in the return game and as an occasional shot-guy. With four picks in the top 38 and dwindling cap freedom, the Jets probably need to use at least one higher pick on the position. Then, as with Tua and the Dolphins, the offense will really be stacked to go as far as Wilson can take them.

The smartest course of action outside that, then, would be to use their remaining ammunition on that horrific defense. It probably won’t pay off from a fantasy angle for a season or two, but a strong edge rusher like Kayvon Thibodeaux and a corner like Roger McCreary or Andrew Booth, Jr would be a good starting point.

Check back with Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy analysis and to see what teams in the other seven divisions still need to add to make fantasy managers’ championship dreams come true. Next up: the NFC East. Got something to say? Leave a comment below and follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB.