Thursday, November 21, 2024

Fantasy Football

AFC North Pre-Draft Fantasy Needs

With the start of the 2022 NFL league year in mid-March squarely behind us, and the 2022 NFL Draft not taking place until the end of April, the intervening weeks are a time for fantasy managers to catch their collective breath. The most frenzied part of the early offseason seems to have calmed, and the next real period of activity won’t happen until the draft and subsequent second wave of free agency. And so we’re here – in the “eye of the storm.” Between now and the start of the 2022 NFL Draft on April 28, we’ll go division-by-division to look at what moves teams still need to make that will have an impact on 2022’s fantasy rosters. Our virtual tour begins in the Rust Belt with the AFC North, in order of 2021 final standings.

Note: All 2021 fantasy point totals and rankings are PPR, unless otherwise noted.

Cincinnati Bengals: AFC North Champions

The Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Burrow (shown here) scored more fantasy points than any other AFC North quarterback in 2021.
“Look at me. I am the captain now!” Bengals QB Joe Burrow put the rest of the AFC North on notice last season that the road to a division title (and fantasy riches) runs through Cincinnati.

Strange as it may seem, the fantasy conversation in the AFC North begins and ends with the Cincinnati Bengals. Paul Brown Stadium was home to the division’s top-scoring running back and wide receiver on a per-game basis in Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase. And while quarterback Joe Burrow (19.6 PPG) finished slightly behind the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson (20 PPG) in that regard, the Bengals got a full season out of “Burreaux.”

The Bengals return almost all of their weapons from last season. Of their top five fantasy scorers from 2021, only tight end C.J. Uzomah will not be back. Ex-Falcon Hayden Hurst will take his place as the starter. Hurst has shown the ability to be a solid fantasy performer in the past.

Cincinnati’s only real offensive weakness last season was up front. Pro Football Focus ranked the Bengals’ offensive line 20th of the 32 teams in the league. That ranking looked generous given the line’s performance in the Super Bowl, where they allowed a record seven sacks. Cincinnati wasted little time addressing this problem area in free agency. Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, and La’el Collins were signed to form an entirely new right side of the line.

Bengals’ Bottom Line

So, with Burrow’s top targets returning and the offensive line woes addressed, what needs remain for the Bengals from a fantasy standpoint? Honestly, not all that much offensively, provided everyone stays healthy. Burrow looks every bit the player the Bengals hoped for when they drafted him first overall. The receiving corps runs deep with fantasy-relevant players, as even number three wideout Tyler Boyd warranted FLEX consideration as WR31 on the season.

The one area offensively where the roster could use a marked improvement from a fantasy standpoint may be behind Joe Mixon. Samaje Perine has just never looked like a potential starter in case Mixon were to miss significant time. Perine wasn’t even used on offense in the 2021 regular season finale against Cleveland. He’s certainly not a stand-alone second option like, say, Cleveland’s Kareem Hunt or Washington’s J.D. McKissic. And handcuffing him to Mixon is essentially a wasted roster spot. Having a viable second option to either back up or pair with Mixon could send the Bengals’ offense to the stratosphere. If a top-flight TE prospect is available, it certainly wouldn’t hurt things, either.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Second Place AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers' running back Najee Harris (pictured) was the AFC North's leading running back in the 2021 fantasy season.
Dual-threat Steelers RB Najee Harris (RB3) took the AFC North- and the fantasy world- by storm in his rookie season.

Somehow, someway, against all odds, the Pittsburgh Steelers remained fantasy relevant in 2021. Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada’s playcalling fell under heavy scrutiny. Ben Roethlisberger‘s arm seemingly retired a half-season before the rest of him. And the 26th-ranked offensive line only rated that high because of Big Ben’s 2.1 second release time – quickest in the league among regular starters. Yet, rookie Najee Harris was RB3 overall (largely on his own talent.) Diontae Johnson, meanwhile, improved on his 2020 showing (WR18) to finish as WR8. In what was essentially a lost season for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool (WR37) struggled a bit but was still a roster-worthy FLEX option.

Somewhat mirroring their AFC North rival Bengals, the Steelers invested heavily in the offensive line to start free agency. The team signed center Mason Cole and guard James Daniels, hoping to improve on a woeful 0.9 yards before contact in the run game in 2021. With Smith-Schuster moving on in free agency, Gunner Olszewski and Anthony Miller were brought in to shore up the receiving corps.

Perhaps the biggest move (thus far) for the Steelers, however, was the signing of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. For now, at least, Trubisky is the leader in the clubhouse to replace the future Hall of Famer Roethlisberger. Mason Rudolph lurks in theory, but the job (again, for now) appears to be Trubisky’s to lose.

Steelers’ Bottom Line

Right now, the biggest question for the Steelers (and fantasy managers) is whether Mitch Trubisky really is their answer at quarterback. If Mike Tomlin and company get the 2020 version of Trubisky, it’s an improvement over Roethlisberger’s recent abilities. That likely keeps them relevant in terms of postseason contention. What it doesn’t necessarily bode well for is the fantasy prospects of his receiving targets. Now, it’s not hard to envision Johnson (or Claypool, for that matter) becoming Trubisky’s new Allen Robinson II. Robinson put together back-to-back top-ten fantasy seasons with Trubisky under center in Chicago, a town not known for its passing proficiency.

The problem is, Trubisky to this point has been much more of a dink-and-dunk type of passer. This doesn’t necessarily play to his strengths, nor the strengths of his new receivers. Trubisky isn’t an overwhelmingly accurate passer. Pittsburgh’s offense struggled mightily last year as Matt Canada tried to shoehorn his personnel into a short passing game. Given Roethlisberger’s arm limitations, that’s arguably understandable. But Pittsburgh’s receivers are built more for stretching the field. Tight end Pat Freiermuth should be pressing up the seam while Johnson and Claypool work the deep outside. This would leave the underneath for Benny Snell and Harris, who caught 74 balls on 94 targets last year. That would seem to be the best way to get Harris into space, as Pittsburgh’s line wasn’t great at blocking the outside run game that Canada again tried inexplicably to establish repeatedly.

Unless Tomlin can convince Canada to stop forcing square pegs into round holes, Pittsburgh doesn’t look to have a long-term answer at quarterback. It would be shocking (and a blow to all Pittsburgh pass-catchers’ stock) if the Steelers don’t look to take their quarterback of the future in the draft.

Cleveland Browns: Third Place AFC North

Cleveland fans are hoping quarterback Deshaun Watson can lead the Browns to the top of the AFC North standings, while fantasy managers are hoping for his return to elite fantasy status.
Cleveland Browns GM Andrew Berry (left) and HC Kevin Stefanski (right) are gambling big on QB Deshaun Watson, despite Watson’s ongoing legal troubles.

Maybe we all should sit down for this revelation… For the first time since Bernard Joseph Kosar, Jr. was released in 1993, the Cleveland Browns do not need a quarterback.

Maybe.

In perhaps the stunner of the offseason, the Browns were in, then out, then ALL THE WAY back in on the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes. They didn’t just go all-in. They went in so far, they came out the back and circled around again. Watson’s contract shocked the NFL world, and for all intents and purposes ended the Browns’ quarterback woes for the foreseeable future. IF he doesn’t get suspended.

The fallout of Watson’s legal situation will determine the Browns’ 2022 fate, without a doubt. No other single factor will be as important to Cleveland’s success. The team signed Jacoby Brissett to work as Watson’s back-up in the event that he’s suspended by the NFL. Baker Mayfield is now left to twist in the wind as he waits to see if/where he’ll be traded. With the most important position in sports now addressed, the Browns’ attention turns elsewhere. Namely, who’s going to catch all the passes?

The Amari Cooper trade and rumored David Njoku extension are a start. But make no mistake- the Browns are in serious need of pass-catchers. Cooper is good but may be more suited to be option 1-B at this point in his career. Njoku still has all the same skills that made him a first-round talent, but are we to believe that year six is when he finally puts it all together and reaches his potential? With apologies to Denny Green, at a certain point, players are who we thought they were.

Browns’ Bottom Line

The Browns NEED wide receivers. Period, end-of-statement.

Ok, maybe not the “end” of that statement. Donovan Peoples-Jones has flashed moments of promise, but I would refer you to the last sentence of the previous segment for my thoughts on him. Rashard Higgins has moved on to a team where he can be the division’s primary “Hollywood.” Anthony Schwartz is fast but hasn’t flashed. Andrew Berry needs to add playmakers for Watson to throw to. The Browns are still strong up-front, even after releasing J.C. Tretter. Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and D’Ernest Johnson may be the strongest three-deep running back depth chart in the league. Watson (whenever he plays) is an elite signal-caller. The only real question marks for the Browns are at wide receiver and kicker.

After the Watson trade, the Browns currently hold a second-rounder (44th overall) for their top selection in the 2022 NFL Draft. In a deep draft for the position, the Browns may still be able to grab a top-10 wide receiver prospect. There also remains the possibility of a Jarvis Landry or Odell Beckham, Jr. reunion (thank you, Deshaun.) Other veteran options remaining unsigned include Will Fuller V, Julio Jones, and A.J. Green.

Also of fantasy relevance, the Browns should be in the market for a kicker upgrade. The team re-signed Chase McLaughlin this offseason, but that still leaves them with the most inconsistent kicking game in the division. Someone like LSU’s Cade York or Oklahoma BOOMER Gabe Brkic could be in play late in the draft or as a priority undrafted free agent.

Baltimore Ravens: Fourth Place AFC North

The Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jackson suddenly finds himself possibly only the third best quarterback in the AFC North.
QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense were grounded by injuries last season, much to the chagrin of fantasy managers.

The Baltimore Ravens found themselves in unfamiliar territory last year, finishing fourth in the AFC North for the first time since 2007. The injury bug bit early and often in Baltimore, leaving the Ravens (and fantasy managers) scrambling. Starting running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both suffered season-ending knee injuries before training camp adjourned. Add Justice Hill to the injury mix, and the Ravens were down to undrafted free agent Ty’Son Williams and a group of aging cast-offs in the backfield behind quarterback Lamar Jackson. Additional starters on both sides of the ball would be lost for the year before Week 1. Jackson would later miss multiple games late in the season with an ankle injury. At one point, coach John Harbaugh may have had the only two intact ACLs in Ravens camp. The Ravens’ season was scuttled before it began, along with many fantasy managers’ hopes.

Besides the terrible injury luck, overall poor offensive line play limited the skill players left standing. Right guard Kevin Zeitler (77.0) was the only Baltimore starting lineman to grade out above 75 according to PFF. Compare that to the Dallas Cowboys (PFF’s top-graded line,) who only had one starter below 75 and only one other below 84. No surprise, then, that the biggest move by the Ravens thus far was signing free agent tackle Morgan Moses.

Ravens’ Bottom Line

The lack of free agent signings shows that Baltimore is confident last year’s flood of injuries is behind them. They really don’t have any needs from a skill-position standpoint if everyone returns healthy. Jackson is only two seasons removed from a unanimous MVP campaign. Dobbins averaged 6.0 YPC and scored nine touchdowns in 2020. Marquise Brown isn’t quite on the level of his cousin Antonio yet but was still a serviceable fantasy starter last season. Rashod Bateman showed promise after overcoming his own injury problems. And we haven’t even mentioned Mark Andrews, last year’s top-scoring fantasy tight end. The Ravens may look at wide receivers in a draft class abundant with talent at the position but otherwise are set.

The best way the Ravens can help themselves and fantasy managers, then, would be by adding to the offensive line. Baltimore’s highly talented skill players are capable of scoring points by the boatload. Improved ability on the offensive line would magnify those capabilities and let the Ravens challenge for the AFC North title as fantasy managers challenge for bragging rights in their own leagues.

Secondarily, the Ravens need to get back to being the Ravens, and that means playing defense. The Ravens were uncharacteristically poor against the pass last season. They had the ninth-worst pass pressure rate in the league and tied for the third-fewest takeaways. And while they gave up the fewest yards rushing in the NFL, they surrendered by far the most passing yards. Shoring up the pass rush and secondary could vault the Ravens’ defense back to the top of the fantasy rankings and give the offense more time of possession, meaning more potential fantasy points for managers.

Check back with Belly Up Fantasy Sports to see what teams in the other seven divisions still need to add to make fantasy managers’ championship dreams come true, and for additional analysis on fantasy football, baseball, and more. Got something to say? Leave a comment below and follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB.

10 thoughts on “AFC North Pre-Draft Fantasy Needs

    1. I am looking forward to seeing Trubisky and Watson in the same division. Maybe Trubisky will get to prove why he was picked number 2 ahead of Watson, or he will prove that his is just a #2 and should be flushed.

      1. I wouldn’t hold my breath, but stranger things have happened, I guess?

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