The NFL Playoffs are here, and we’ve already seen one shocker of an outcome! If you’re not quite ready to leave the thrill of the fantasy chase behind (no pun intended), there are still daily contests to be played, as well as playoff fantasy leagues. I’ve released my playoff league rankings and will be updating my weekly rankings throughout the playoffs. We’ll also be previewing each individual game’s fantasy prospects. Up next, the AFC Wild Card Sunday early game between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. The game airs on CBS at 1:00 pm EST this Sunday, January 15.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. DFS values are DraftKings Classic ranks. Odds and betting information are courtesy Quarter4.

AFC Wild Card Sunday Early Game Preview: Dolphins’ Offense

It’s been a roller coaster of a season for the Miami Dolphins and their fantasy managers. A hot start to the season looked derailed by the first Tua Tagovailoa (QB15) injury. Tagovailoa’s return kicked off another hot streak that had the Dolphins looking like one of the league’s most dangerous teams. That hot streak would reach five straight wins. Unfortunately, a matching five-game losing streak would follow. The Dolphins looked dead in the water again after the second Tagovailoa injury in Week 16 versus the Packers. A Week 17 loss to the Patriots left Miami outside the playoff bubble, needing a win and a loss by the Patriots to salvage the AFC’s seventh seed. An injury to backup Teddy Bridgewater in that game meant they’d be relying on Skylar Thompson, a seventh-round rookie draft pick.

It worked out for the Dolphins in terms of reaching the playoffs. But it’s anyone’s guess as to what to expect from the likes of Tyreek Hill (WR2) and Jaylen Waddle (WR9) with the shaky rookie throwing the ball vaguely in their direction. An injury to Raheem Mostert (RB28) actually clears up the backfield picture a bit. But a matchup with the formidable Buffalo defense in the Wild Card Sunday early game doesn’t bode well for the Fishes’ fantasy prospects.

Fantasy Playoff League Outlook

Buffalo is the number two seed in the AFC, but they have been one of the favorites to make the Super Bowl since the preseason. With Miami’s suspect quarterback situation and the Bills’ stout defense, this looks like a pretty clear one-and-done. Any Dolphins on your playoff fantasy rosters are likely giving you one game’s worth of suppressed production. Accordingly, I don’t have the Dolphins rated as high as their season-ending fantasy rankings would suggest. Sure, they split their two games with Buffalo this season, winning at home and losing by a field goal in Buffalo. But those were with Tagovailoa at the controls. The ceiling would be Hill or Waddle as a low-end WR2, and that would necessitate an improbable explosion-type game.

DFS Outlook

Unfortunately, the Dolphins don’t look like much help in daily formats, either. The Bills were in the bottom seven as far as fantasy points allowed to opponents at every position but wide receiver. They’re actually a decent matchup for wideouts; even more-so in the wake of the Damar Hamlin injury that leaves them paper-thin at safety. But that’s for teams with reliable quarterbacks. Hill ($7,900) is commanding the third-highest price of any player, but has seen his production drop with Thompson ($4,800) under center. Hill had his worst showing of the season in last week’s must-win game. Waddle ($6,400) has been underwhelming as of late as well.

The only Dolphin I’d realistically consider would be Jeff Wilson ($5,400). He’s the cheapest starting running back of the six playing this Sunday and could play 80 percent of the snaps with Mostert out. You’re hoping for a longer score, or perhaps a monster receiving game (he did see seven targets just two weeks ago). It’s a risk I’m probably not taking if I can help it. Mike Gesicki ($3,200) has seen an uptick in his targets with Thompson at the helm. If you want to start an under-performing player at the most unpredictable fantasy position against the number two fantasy defense against that position, be my guest. It’s your money. Just don’t tell them I sent you.

AFC Wild Card Sunday Early Game Preview: Bills’ Offense

From the horror and uncertainty stemming from the Cincinnati game and Hamlin’s injury, has come a renewed sense of purpose and hope for the Buffalo Bills. The news on Hamlin gets better seemingly every day. The Bill played like men possessed last week against New England and roared back to form. Hamlin is now discharged from hospital and even was able to make an appearance at the team facility this week:

From Matt Milano's Instagram story. Damar Hamlin. Unbelievable. Appears he is back "on campus" in Orchard Park. pic.twitter.com/toSCQI2b64

— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) January 14, 2023

With the weight of the Hamlin situation considerably lightened, the Bills look set to run over the Dolphins and their third-string rookie quarterback. Buffalo’s biggest challenge will be maintaining focus and not overlooking Miami.

Fantasy Playoff League Outlook

I am as happy as anyone for Damar Hamlin and his colleagues. But emotion will only take them so far. I don’t see them making a Super Bowl run, but I do see them winning this game. You’re getting multiple games out of one of the league’s best offenses. That means that top-flite players like Josh Allen (overall QB2 on the season) and Stefon Diggs (WR4) maintain that standing for the most part. Their explosive abilities can put up enough points in a couple games to match what others may do in three or more. Allen and Diggs are both no-doubt, top-tier options at their respective positions.

Devin Singletary (RB23) and Dawson Knox (TE13) out-rank their season outputs in the playoff format. I have Singletary as a low-end RB1, while Knox rises to mid-level TE1 status. Gabriel Davis (WR38) rockets to an upper-WR2 rank, and Isaiah McKenzie (WR55) is a FLEX consideration. Tyler Bass (K10) and the Buffalo DST (DST5) both offer mid-range value with upside.

DFS Outlook

I’m not as bullish on the Bills’ DFS prospects as you might have assumed. Allen ($7,900) did have a monster game against Miami the last time they met. But of his four passing scores in that game, only one went to one of his primary targets (Knox). Singletary ($5,500), Diggs ($7,700), and Davis ($4,900) all had rather pedestrian stat lines. Allen is the most expensive quarterback of the day. He should still return commensurate value. You can pair him with Knox ($4,000) for reasonable value in a good matchup.

After that, the Bills’ skill players are somewhat risky adds to your lineup in my opinion. Davis is an affordable option, but hasn’t had a really “big” score in two months. Diggs is coming off a nice game, but hadn’t scored in three games prior. Miami isn’t all that bad against wideouts. Both could return negative value. If you really want a Bills stack, I’d consider using the cheaper Davis with Allen and Knox. You’ll want to spend some bigger money on reliable backfield options in that case. Singletary has underwhelmed as a fantasy option and isn’t a back who sees an uptick in usage late in games with a lead. You could take a big swing with James Cook ($4,800) as a counter-culture fourth layer to your Bills stack. Buffalo’s DST ($3,300) is worth it this week.

Betting Lines (Courtesy of Quarter4):

Favorite: Bills (-11.5)

Over/Under: 46.5

Notable Props: Jason Sanders field goals (1.4); Gabriel Davis receiving yards (54.2); Thomas Morstead punts (4.5); Jaylen Waddle receiving yards (61.2)

Best of Luck!

Here’s hoping your playoff fantasy contests go well and you get to live the lesser dream for awhile. Remember to check Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy analysis and entertaining insight. Rankings, game previews, and betting advice will help you cash in this postseason! As always, more great NFL coverage is available on the main Belly Up site, as well as fun, informative content on the Belly Up Podcast Network. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast each week.