We are only weeks away from Opening Day, which means fantasy baseball draft season is open. Over the next several articles I will be giving you fantasy locks, busts, and sleepers for each MLB team. We start with the AL East.
Baltimore Orioles
Lock: Gunnar Henderson, 3B
There are several young fantasy studs on this Baltimore team, but Gunnar Henderson plays a position that is not very deep this year. His value, talent, and place in the lineup make him a fantasy must-have.
Bust: Ryan Mountcastle, 1B
Mountcastle had 28 more plate appearances in 2022 than in 2021, but ten fewer HRs, 15 fewer Rs, and 4 fewer RBIs. Those stats will drop slightly more again this year, making him a bust in Baltimore.
Sleeper: Jorge Mateo, SS
With an ADP of 246, Mateo is going to be the best fantasy value of the year. He does not provide a lot of power, but he posted career-bests in nearly every category last season. You can expect 35-40 steals, a .250 Average, and double-digit HRs in 2023.
Boston Red Sox
Lock: Rafael Devers, 3B
Devers will face an uphill battle this season, with less protection in the lineup, but Devers is still a top 5 fantasy Third Baseman.
Bust: Triston Casas, 1B
The Red Sox are hoping for a huge year from the young First Baseman, but the stats do not point to much positive for Casas. The Red Sox fans in your league will reach for him, but you should pass.
Sleeper: Alex Verdugo, OF
Boston does not have a real sleeper, but I had to pick someone. Verdugo is being drafted as high as round 14, and as low as round 21. He is a sleeper if you can get him after round 18.
New York Yankees
Lock: Aaron Judge, OF
He will not match up to last season, but he will still be a stud.
Bust: Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Rizzo began his decline in Batting Average in 2020, but he still holds some value because of his power. The main area of concern is his strikeout percentage. He’s being drafted in round 11 which makes him a bust. If you can snag him in rounds 13 or 14, he is worth the pick.
Sleeper: Oswald Peraza, SS
Peraza is going late to undrafted right now. There is competition for playing time, but Peraza will come out on top. If you need a second SS late in the draft, Peraza will help you.
Tampa Bay Rays
Lock: Wander Franco, SS
Franco will end the year as a top-six SS in fantasy. He is consistent in every category, with a great spot in the line-up. Put Franco on all my fantasy teams.
Bust: Brandon Lowe, 2B
Lowe plays at a shallow position, and many view him as a value pick. Injuries hurt his production last year, but he was already trending in the wrong direction.
Sleeper: Isaac Paredes, 3B
Paredes made the most of his opportunities last season. While his batting average is low, he saw good improvement in other areas. His ADP is 340 which means a waiver wire guy in the first month of the season.
Toronto Blue Jays
Lock: Vlad Guerrero Jr., 1B
Not much needs to be said for this MVP candidate.
Bust: Daulton Varsho, OF/C
Varsho was the big addition for Toronto this off-season, which comes with big expectations. His position versatility is sexy, but his ability to reach expectations is worrisome. A new ballpark, new conference, and new division are all things Varsho will have to get used to. With an ADP of 54, I will not take him before 70.
Sleeper: Matt Chapman, 3B
In the move to Toronto, Chapman’s numbers got a slight boost, as would anyone who was previously in Oakland. His ADP is 150, and his numbers should go up slightly again this year as he settles in with the Jays in year two.
Follow Vince on Twitter, and catch The Sports Stove Fantasy Baseball Show each week.