My previous article gave you a few quarterbacks I felt have the potential to be a bust at their ADP. Today I bring you the belly up running backs version. A first-round running back that goes “Belly Up,” full pun intended, can sink your team. So today, we will look at my potential belly up running backs.

My goal is to help you avoid going overboard and find the value around some potential busts. Do not reach for someone just because he fell a round. Make sure to be comparing an individual’s value to the other positions as well. Snagging an upside WR2 would be more beneficial than taking a potential bust running back.

Let’s tackle the running backs who could cause your team to go belly up for their price.

Running Backs To Give Back

Alvin Kamara – New Orlean Saints – ADP18(RB10)

Obviously, the risk of suspension looms. We are not here to talk about the specifics of that in this article, but it is a factor. It looks like he will start the season, but at any point, the NFL could decide to shelf him. With that being the first risk to his playing time and production, RB10 seems too high to me.

He can still achieve that floor with the playing time, but there are other factors at play here as well. Last season Kamara finished 3rd in touches per game and was ranked 6th in points per game for running backs. These results came as a result of Kamara really being the entire offense for that Saints team. This year Michael Thomas is back, and Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave have joined the team. Jameis Winston is playing quarterback and with that brings a new style of offense. With the reduced volume and a less consistent offense, a floor of RB10 is too high for Kamara this year.

I have Kamara in the RB14-RB16 range, but that would move him to overall closer to the 3rd round. You could be better served to grab a wide receiver and then get someone like James Conner or Barkley, depending on your draft position. Potential wide receivers I would rather take at ADP18 would be Ceedee Lamb or Tyreek Hill instead of Kamara.

Tony Pollard – Dallas Cowboys – ADP83(RB32)

One of fantasy football’s favorite handcuffs has been “hyped out” in my eyes. At this point, I think it is clear that the Cowboys will continue to use both Elliot and Pollard in this offense. What is interesting is that Elliot seems to be dropping to a more favorable ADP. Meanwhile, Pollard has risen in the last few years. I would much rather draft Elliot a couple of rounds earlier.

I also believe there are a good amount of backs who are currently being drafted after Pollard that have RB2 potential. For instance, James Robinson, Ken Walker, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Dameon Pierce are a few I like. Given the upside of some of these guys given their cost, I would rather let Pollard fall to someone else.

I think the offensive line changes, which I mentioned with Prescott in my quarterback article, will also affect this running game. This gives me even more of a reason to rather take a risk on Elliot instead of his touchdown upside.

Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas Raiders – ADP43(RB20)

This is an example of where I believe Jacobs should be considered an RB3 instead of an RB2. Jacobs showed a new side of himself last year, getting more involved in the passing game. Josh McDaniels takes over this year, though, and I believe he will be more likely to use a committee approach in certain situations. Jacobs should still be the main guy, but I see Kenyan Drake and Zamir White getting involved enough to make it so that Jacob’s ceiling could be capped.

The other part of the offense that I think will limit the upside of this entire rushing attack is that they should be leaning more on the passing game than ever before. Given the high-powered division the Raiders are in and their new weapons, this should be a career year for Carr, not Jacobs. Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller will still command this offense.

Josh McDaniels also brought in some depth, which could signal a thinking of him wanting to “find” his running back. Bringing in a trusted option in Brandon Bolden, a pass-catching vet in Ameer Abdullah, and the rookie Zamir White could limit Jacobs’ upside as well.

Antonio Gibson – Washington Commanders – ADP37(RB19)

I think many people will look at Carson Wentz and Jonathan Taylor and say that Wentz can produce a running back one. Let’s slow that roll. Antonio Gibson is not Jonathan Taylor. Gibson is a great running back with a ton of talent. His situation is what will be his downfall this year. Typically when an offense has a quarterback that is on the downfall, the running game is leaned on. I think Washington will do that, but not all through Gibson.

Washington resigned J.D. McKissic who is going to resume his role as the pass catching back. This is a role that Gibson is fully capable of handling. Washington has made it clear though that they will manage Gibson’s workload. Selecting a power back in the third round the likes of Brian Robinson will also limit Gibson’s ceiling.

Robinson comes from Alabama who has a rich history of producing NFL ready backs. I do not see how Robinson is going to be any different. He should be ready to take over short yardage work and potentially goal line work. This is another main reason Gibson may end up closer to RB3 status this year.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Kansas City Chiefs – ADP58(RB26)

Don’t get me wrong. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is an electric running back. I love what he can do carrying the ball as well as catching the ball. What hurts him now is the unwillingness of the Kansas City Chiefs to go all-in with him since his injury. Last season they utilized Jerick McKinnon as the main pass catching back and this year they brought in Ronald Jones. On top of that they drafted Isiah Pacheco who is slowly getting more eyes looking his way.

This is a backfield I have been saying all summer is one that I will stay away from because of the uncertainty of it. It is similar to Miami’s in that way and Edwards-Helaire could be in a similar situation as Antonio Gibson. We have already seen this play out before with Andy Reid where he likes to use a mixture of backs. Darrel Williams is a prime example of how easily high upside situations can be taken away from Edwards-Helaire.

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