Last week I brought you my favorite fantasy sleeper for this upcoming season, outfielder Bryan De La Cruz of the Miami Marlins. If you didn’t get a chance to check out that article, you don’t want to miss it, he has quietly set himself up for a chance at a huge season. This week, I will bring you another sleeper getting picked around the same time as Bryan De La Cruz but plays on the corners of the infield. Today’s sleeper pick is Yandy Diaz of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Locked Down in Tampa

As of January 31st, the Rays signed Yandy to a three-year deal, keeping him with the club through 2025 with a 2026 option. Yandy will play at the corners of the infield while batting leadoff. This will make him a mainstay at the top of their lineup for the next few years to come. His job security is something we don’t have right now with Bryan De La Cruz which makes Yandy a lot safer when considering guaranteed playing time for both redraft and dynasty formats. He doesn’t have anything else to prove to the Rays. Last year, Yandy finished the season with a .296/.401/.423 slash line with 33 doubles, 9 home runs, and 57 runs batted in, leading to an MVP-20 finish in the American League.

Fantasy Sleeper?

It doesn’t seem like Yandy Diaz should be a sleeper, right? Despite the Rays committing to his future, and Yandy having his best career season, fantasy owners are passing up on the opportunity to pick a corner infielder who can easily make his way into any fantasy lineup this season. According to FantasyPros’ 2023 fantasy baseball average draft position list as of February 22nd, Yandy is going past the 240th pick in drafts, as the 23rd third baseman, and 27th first baseman. He is being slept on.

In 2022, Yandy Diaz was a great fantasy piece to every team that added him to their roster. On DraftBuddy.com, where you can change 2022 total points rankings based on your league’s scoring, Yandy was easily a top 100 fantasy player in most scoring formats. He was ranked around the top-15 for third base and top-18 for first base. This was huge for teams that lacked a quality third baseman or a consistent first baseman, as Yandy was able to have an on-base plus slugging of over .790 in every month of the 2022 season besides May. Whenever he was in a fantasy lineup he was able to contribute.

Why You Can Count on Diaz in 2023

As Yandy Diaz just had his best career year to date at 30 years young, here are the reasons I believe Yandy is a fantasy sleeper and will be able to keep up his production in 2023.

Increase in XWOBA

In 2021, Yandy posted a .332 expected weighted on-base average, which was slightly above the league average which is around .320. Last year, he was able to increase it to .365, which was not only 14th best in the MLB but also the sixth biggest change in year-to-year XWOBA. This change reflects in his stats with Yandy setting career highs in hits, doubles, and bases on balls. 

Increase in Hard Hit Percentage

This year, although his numbers may not suggest it, Yandy Diaz finished in the top-18 for hard-hit percentage in the MLB, and also made the third biggest change in year-to-year hard-hit percentage. Hard Hit Percentage is an important stat to consider when determining a hitter’s ability. According to statcast, in 2018 a hard-hit ball in the field of play had a .524 batting average, 1.047 slugging percentage, and .653 XWOBA. His hard-hit rate percentage was 49 percent, which led to his success.

Elite On-Base Skills

With Yandy Diaz, you will have one of the best on-base players in the league. Last year, at .401, his on-base percentage was the same as Juan Soto’s, who is arguably the best on-base player in the league currently. You won’t have to worry about him striking out either, last year Diaz had an impressive 10.8 percent strike-out rate which was top-five in the MLB and was 4.8 percent lower, yes lower, than his walk rate at 14.8 percent, which was good for sixth best in the MLB. He’s one of the toughest players in the league to punch out, and it is going to stay that way.

Why Sleep on Diaz?

There aren’t many reasons to believe that Diaz can’t put up another top-100 fantasy season. There are only three that I could see bringing Diaz’s stock down. Here they are:

Batting at the Top of the Order

Yandy Diaz is currently projected to be the leadoff hitter in Tampa. Knowing leadoff batters, they have one job which is to get on base. They are not there to drive in runs. While mostly batting at the top of the lineup in 2022, Yandy managed to knock in just 57 runs, which was tied for 117th in the league. In 2023, Yandy will be counting on guys like Manuel Margot, Isaac Paredes, Christian Bethancourt, and Jose Siri to get on base for him to drive them in.

Speed & Power

Although Yandy Diaz stands at a muscular 6’2” 215 pounds, his approach is contact-first with a swing that comes down on the ball to produce a top-18 hard hit percentage, albeit with a bottom-24 launch angle and a barrel percentage at the 20th percentile that led to just nine home runs on the season. He did hit 33 doubles, but no triples. He also swiped a measly three bags, and there are no signs that show there will be a change in his speed and baserunning, as he is a below-average runner at 44th percentile sprint speed.

Career Year

You always have to consider that a career-high season doesn’t guarantee as much success the following year. But it doesn’t seem like there are many holes in his game to exploit next season. He struggles against sliders, which was the only pitch he had a below-average weighted on-base percentage against, and with his success at putting the ball in play or walking, that shouldn’t be enough of a put-away pitch to be an issue.

Don’t Sleep

I chose Yandy Diaz as this week’s fantasy sleeper pick because his floor is a lot higher than Bryan De La Cruz’s who was my sleeper pick last week. He was a reliable fantasy asset last year and he should be able to pick up where he left off next season. That being said, he doesn’t have a much higher ceiling than the year he had last season. I believe that Yandy Diaz can produce a .280 or higher batting average with at least a .800 on-base plus slugging this season. If you are looking for a reliable corner infielder later in your drafts this year, snag Yandy Diaz while he’s still available.

The MLB regular season is right around the corner! I will be putting out more sleeper picks that can help you dominate your fantasy leagues over the next weeks to come. So make sure to check out other articles on BellyUpFantasy in the meantime, or check out our main page BellyUpSports. Also give us a follow on our BellyUpSports and BellyUpFantasy Twitter, as well as my own. Thank you for reading!