Thursday, December 26, 2024

Fantasy Football

Belly Up Sleeper Targets

By this time in the mock season you’ve probably narrowed down the players you plan to target. You also may be identifying some you refuse to own a single share of and a sleeper or two. This is routine for fantasy owners such as yourself. Now it’s time to split the hairs of the names you are picking from a few beers and several rounds into your draft. Let’s break down a player at each position that won’t require a hefty investment yet possesses the horsepower to carry your squad to a title in 2020.

Quarterback

Quarterback is a position that does not require you to invest early draft capital to have acceptable production. In 2019 fewer than 32 points separated QB5 and QB12 at season’s end. That’s less than a layup per game difference. Let them draft the quarterbacks in the early rounds! Here is a guy with a low ADP that I will be targeting later in drafts that has serious potential to finish as a QB1.

This stat shows how overrated Baker Mayfield is
Look for Baker Mayfield to pay huge dividends in 2020.

As my sleeper QB Baker Mayfield was pegged as a surefire QB1 in 2019. We saw a regression in nearly every statistical category. The Browns’ signal-caller finished as a low-end QB2, barely cracking the top 20. The same neighborhood as guys like Ryan Tannehill, Phillip Rivers, and Kirk Cousins. I expect 2020 to be a bounce-back campaign for the Dawg Pound. Newly hired head coach Kevin Stefanski’s system has produced some of the most efficient seasons from both Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins. Neither guy is as talented as Mayfield nor did they have the weapons Baker will be spinning it to this season. With the addition of TE Austin Hooper to the likes of pass-catching RB Kareem Hunt and WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, the Browns passing attack will certainly thrive. Our panel’s consensus rankings here at Belly Up Fantasy have Baker currently sitting at QB16. 

Running back

True workhorse running backs are becoming harder and harder to find in today’s NFL. There can still be a huge value in a dreaded running back committee. Combing through running backs on waivers to slap into your starting lineup can be a real struggle. It’s important to draft well at the running back position. Running backs need opportunities!

San Francisco 49ers' Tevin Coleman to miss Week 2 against Bengals ...
Tevin Coleman may be the draft prize of 2020 at the RB position.

Tevin Coleman comes into this season overshadowed by his counterpart, Raheem Mostert. Although health has been a concern for Coleman, he has serious potential to outperform expectations. The 49ers are a run-heavy offense and Matt Breida’s departure left 123 carries and 22 targets for Coleman and Mostert to feast on. Coleman averaged roughly 0.86 fantasy points per touch in PPR formats in 2019. Let’s say the two-headed monster split those 145 touches 50-50, Coleman would tally just under 200 fantasy points. That would have slid in at RB18, right behind Arizona Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake. If you’ve been following our crew here at Belly Up Fantasy you’d know Coleman has plenty of buzz among our panel. Consensus rankings have Tevin as RB39 heading into the 2020 season.

Wide receiver

At the wide receiver position, there are as many sleeper options as the rest of the positions combined. Your cheat sheet is chalked full of young fliers who have shown glimpses of their potential breakouts. Consistency is an extremely undervalued commodity, especially late in drafts where you’re trying to strike oil. Why not a wily old vet?

NFL rumors: Emmanuel Sanders, Saints agree on two-year, $16M ...
Emmanuel Sanders is the #2 WR the Saints have been looking for.

Yes, Emmanuel Sanders is now a New Orleans Saint. He spent 7 games in Denver before being dealt to the 49ers. He played all 17 games, no bye week, and quietly racked up 66 catches for 869 yards and 5 TDs. Finishing 2019 at WR30, Sanders was tied with Tyreek Hill coming in just behind Redskins WR Terry McLaurin. Now the SMU product steps back into the #2 WR role in an offense that is arming for a Super Bowl run. Sean Payton has had several attempts at filling this role with young draft picks. Tre’Quan Smith, Cam Meredith, and Brandon Coleman all fell short of expectations. Sanders is tailor-made for his role in this offense and his target share should yield consistency with a high floor week in week out. Our team @BellyUpFantasy has this sleeper ranked at WR42.

Tight end

The Tight End position had plenty of diamonds last season. 2019 sleepers Tyler Higbee and Will Dissly were both enormous values early in the season. Mark Andrews was a gem throughout 2019 and Jared Cook was picking up a shine on the back nine. Unless you’re willing to cash in an early-round pick for Kelce, Kittle, or Ertz then it’s a roster spot you can leave blank deep into your draft.

Southern Regional's Mike Gesicki Catches Dolphins' Winning TD
Dolphins’ TE Mike Gesicki catching the game winning touchdown week 17 in New England.

With the tight end position, few pass-catchers have a significant target share in their weekly role. Few targets mean few opportunities. Mike Gesicki was the intended target on 64 pass attempts in the final nine games of the Dolphins’ slate, also adding all 5 TD receptions during that stretch. The 6’6″ 250 pound Penn State product is as explosive as it gets for a man of his stature. Rolling in a 4.55-second 40-yard dash and a 41.5″ vertical, the Dolphins’will find ways to get the ball in his hands. Especially in the red zone. If Miami finds QB Tua Tagovailoa under center expect #88 to be peppered in targets. Belly Up’s Lead Fantasy Writer Ryan Hicks @realryanhicks has been pounding the table for this guy in each of our live Belly Up Fantasy mock drafts, ranking him 3rd overall at tight end. Our consensus ranking is TE #10.

Sleeper Honorable Mentions

QB Drew Lock
RB David Johnson
WR Jamison Crowder
TE Eric Ebron

If you enjoyed this edition of Belly Up Sleepers you can follow me on twitter @bwhitt24. Also, follow our weekly live mock drafts @BellyUpFantasy. Load up Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports and Picks for breaking news, analysis, and commentary.