Welcome back to Belly Up Start Em, Sit Em Week 12! There are no bye games this week, but PIT BAL is risky business right now. We are going to be looking to target guys who might be on the fringe of your starting lineups. Likewise, we will be pointing out players to avoid if you need a heavy push forwards as playoffs approach. These matchups are huge and can make or break your entire season. You gotta get it right.

Start Em Sit Em: QBs

Start

Carson Wentz @SEA

We are getting to see a historically bad pass defense from the Seahawks in 2020. They are allowing an abominable 343.7 yards per game to passing attacks in 2020. Wentz has Sanders back fully, and Reagor has become more involved in the offense. Combine that with the fact that Seattle will score a bunch of points in this game, and you can live with the inevitable turnovers that will come to enjoy the perks of playing against the worst pass defense in the history of the NFL up to this point. Philadelphia is still literally in the playoff picture, so expect them to come to play. Despite the inconsistences surrounding him this season, Wentz is currently the QB12 in overall fantasy production. Play him this week.

Daniel Jones @CIN

This has a lot to do with Joe Burrow being out. Cincy has not been good against the pass, and the Giants have some momentum going after reeling off back-to-back wins against division opponents. Jones has averaged above 70% completion percentage his last two games, but the TDs haven’t been there those two games. That being said, he offers rushing upside with his new-found wheels, and he is facing the 23rd ranked pass defense on the year.

Sit

Tom Brady @KC

Kansas City boasts the 8th best pass defense in the NFL, and are looking to stay in the hunt for the 1 seed. Brady has had abysmal games in two of his last three, and while I see KC scoring and TB trying to keep up, I don’t think they can. Brady has 5 passing TDs and 5 INTs in his last 3 games, and expecting him to right the ship in this tough matchup is a huge ask. Expect a sub-par performance this week, and I would be looking for better options if available.

Lamar Jackson @ PIT

Sadly, this game is not likely to play. Even if it does, Lamar has Covid. Get him out of your lineup asap. Pittsburgh is good against RBs, which is essentially what Jackson offers as far as a safe floor with his ground game. They also shut down passing games. Moving forward, Jackson is not a safe or consistent option at QB. I guess technically with Covid, you know not to use him, but I really like most of the matchups for the other higher-level QBs, and don’t wanna advise that you sit Nick Mullens, which you should…

Start Em Sit Em: RBs

Start

Chris Carson @PHI

Seattle is going to score, and likely get ahead, which brings me to Carson. Having an effective run game opens up this Seahawks offense in a big way. Carson is averaging a career-best 4.9 yards per carry, and is averaging more targets and catches per game than he ever has. Philly is 26th against the run, and Carson is going to gash them as Seattle grinds the clock with a viable run game. Carson has not been healthy, but he returns this week and you want those points in your lineup, not on your bench.

Gus Edwards @PIT

The Gus Bus is loading up. Baltimore, if they play, are going to be forced to lean on Edwards over and over if they want to move the ball with so much of their team out. We don’t usually start RBs against this Steelers defense, but Edwards touched them up for 87 yards on 16 carries and a TD in week 8, and has ran well against them in the past. If this game doesn’t end up playing, pivot to Brian Hill who will get RB1 touches in a game against Vegas that could become high-scoring.

Sit

David Montgomery @GB

What a disappointing 2020 for Monty. The volume has been there, but the production has not. He has only found the end zone twice in 2020. He has eclipsed 100 all-purpose yards just two times this season as well. Green Bay is likely going to get an early lead, and Chicago is starting Trubisky this week, who is capable on the ground and likely to vulture some goal lines looks from Monty. Avoid him this week, but it is worth noting Montgomery averaged 4.44 yards per carry with Trubisky starting and 3.19 with Foles at the helm.

Melvin Gordon vs NO

The Saints have the second-ranked rush defense in 2020 so far and are going to be stacking the box with news that all three QBs for Denver are out this week. Apparently, Royce Freeman may be the QB! I had Gordon as a Sit Em before finding out about Denver’s QB conundrum, and I am doubling down now. There are better options out there this week, and no RB is going to do well when all three QBs are out. Sorry, Gordon owners, awful luck. At least this week Gordon’s lack of involvement in the passing game makes sense.

Start Em Sit Em: WRs

Start

Darius Slayton @CIN

The Jones Slayton stack this week is going to pay big dividends against Cincy this week. The Giants are on a bit of a hot streak, and that should continue this week against a Cincy team without Burrow. Slayton has not had the consistent targets to produce big numbers on a weekly basis, but when he has had the targets, he has performed. Expect the ball to be going his way this week as the Giants legitimately prep for their final push for a playoff spot. Slayton is the big play guy in this offense, and when he scores his second TD of the game, you are gonna be glad you didn’t bench him.

Jalen Reagor vs SEA

It’s Reagor time! Worst passing defense ever so far? Check. Blazing speed and big-play ability? Check. Playing from behind against an imposing Seattle offense? Check. Reagor is a big-play waiting to happen, and against this defense, this week, Reagor is going to feast while Wentz tries desperately to keep Philly in the playoff race. They will be forced to throw the ball, and Fulgham has apparently forgotten how to catch with only 2 catches on 12 targets in his last two games for 16 total yards. Reagor is healthy and ready to produce for the Eagles, and we will see his full talent on display this week against a defense that just can’t stop anyone.

Sit

Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel/49ers targets @LAR

Don’t do this. I know it’s so tempting. But Mullens is the QB. And Ramsey is likely shadowing Samuel with Aiyuk looking less likely to play by the day. This could get ugly against the Rams second-ranked pass defense. Samuel had 6 catches for 66 yards and a TD against the Rams in week 6, but it is highly unlikely he replicates that production this week. Aiyuk also scored last time around, but only had 2 catches on 3 targets for 12 yards otherwise. He is also likely not playing, allowing defenses to focus even more on Samuel. Avoid this passing attack entirely.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs CHI

Adams is not exactly stoppable, so he should get his against this excellent Chicago D. I do not expect Chicago to move the ball well against the Packers, and we could see a lot of the ground game from Green Bay in this one. MVS is currently not guaranteed to play after injuring himself in practice, but if he does not, this applies to Lazard as well. Expect Rodgers to be fine this week, but the tertiary options in this offense are not going to have big days against a solid all-around Bears defense. This may stay low-scoring, and the floors on MVS and Lazard are very very low. I don’t like either.

Start Em Sit Em: TEs

Start

Will Dissly @PH

Dissly has caught nearly every ball thrown his way, and has done so for the last two years. He has 37 catches on 44 targets when he has played, and availability rather than ability has been his big issue. With Olsen out, expect Dissly and to a lesser extent Hollister to fill in the gaps. Dissly finds pay-dirt this week as Philly tries desperately to stop the 1-2 punch at WR for Sea. With Carson healthy, expect a balanced attack from Seattle that should include plenty of TE action. Dissly is a sneaky option with a risky floor but very high upside.

Mike Gesicki @NYJ

Tua is doubtful, and while Gesicki had begun building chemistry with the rookie QB, Fitzmagic is who Gesicki owners want flinging it. Gesicki is averaging 14.8 yards per catch on 4.6 targets per game, and The Jets quite frankly are not good against the pass. Fitzmagic is going to ball out to try and hold on to the starting gig, which bodes well for the entire receiving corps for Miami fantasy-wise. Look for Magic Mike to end his scoring drought this week while bringing in 5+ balls as Miami makes a push for the division lead.

Sit

Tyler Higbee vs SF

Higbee is questionable, which is enough for me to avoid. Add in that The Rams likely spank San Fran all over the field, and you may be looking at an uninspiring air-game from LA. Compound that fact with the talent in that offense around Higbee, and I see no reason to play him in a negative matchup. Higbee has underperformed rather consistently in 2020, and that trend should continue as LA attempts to run out the clock starting in quarter 3.

Jonnu Smith @IND

Matchups are big in fantasy football. The Colts defense is very good. Just two weeks ago, Smith was held to 2 catches on 6 targets for 14 yards. He did manage 1 carry for 1 yard and a TD, but that is fluky at best. Indy has been lights out defensively, especially since Leonard returned, and I am expecting Jonnu to be bottled up by this defense in a big way in week 12. Jonny always has an excellent ceiling, but his floor this week is very scary. There are safer options this week.

Thank you for reading Belly Up Start Em, Sit Em Week 12. You can find me on Twitter @realryanhicks, and you can find everything you need for fantasy advice with @BellyUpFantasy. You can tune in live on Wednesdays at 7:30 CST for Belly Up Fantasy Live to hear us analyze every matchup for this week’s slate of games. Also, with the Holidays approaching, give a man in your life a gift that will keep on giving with Manscaped. Use promo code BELLYUPFANTASY for 20% off your purchase. The man, and the ladies in his life, will appreciate it.