Welcome back to the Week 13 edition of Belly Up Start Em, Sit Em. This week we have Tampa Bay and Carolina on very late byes. We are going to target players that would realistically be sat or started, everyone should start D Adams or Kelce period, no need to comment on that. Playoffs are either approaching or possibly already starting for some of you. Let’s make the right lineup decisions to best ensure we live to play another week.

Start Em Sit Em QBs

Start

Kirk Cousins vs JAX

The Jaguars have allowed the 30th most TDs to QBs in 2020. They allow the 29th most passing yards per game. How much more should I add in here? Thielen is back from Covid. Two straight games with 3 TD passes. 3 of his last 4 actually, as he only threw two against Chicago’s stellar defense. Captain Kirk is here to rescue your playoff hopes. All he wants to know is how you like it.

Mitchell Trubisky vs DET

Detroit allows and the 26th most passing TDs, and passing yards, per game. Mitchell Trubisky is not exactly the belle of the ball, but he has actually been quite fantasy friendly in 2020 when he has played, with a ground game that raises his floor past the scary “Mitch the passing QB” levels. Detroit struggles in every facet defensively, and I expect Trubisky to get at least one score on the ground this week as he fights to keep his career in Chicago alive.

Sit

Kyler Murray vs LAR

Let me start off by saying this feels weird and wrong. Killer Kyler is having a helluva fantasy season. But the LA Rams allow the least TDs and third least pass yards to QBs in 2020. And Kyler is clearly affected by that shoulder injury. It has even affected his ground game, as evidenced by his last two games only seeing 5 rushes. He had 11 the two prior. The Rams are going to take Hopkins away, and Kyler is going to be in trouble. Obviously, you only bench him if you have an option that is better. Bench him for Cousins this week.

Cam Newton @ LAC

For those of you who find this obvious, skip to the Start Em, Sit Em RB section. For those of you considering starting Cam, we need to talk. He has a 4:9 TD:INT ratio. He has thrown for under 100 yards passing twice this year. After you pick your jaw up, realize his 16 game pace of 6.4 passing TDs along with 14.4 INTs is not fantasy rosterable. Yes, his ground game is formidable. No, it is no longer there for him consistently. A 3 carry 6 yards performance against Houston in week 11 still looms large. Stop trusting this guy with your franchise. Be better than Belichick.

Start Em Sit Em RBs

Start

Raheem Mostert vs BUF

Buffalo has allowed the 25th most rushing yards in 2020, along with the 30th most rushing TDs. Mostert has looked sharp when on the field, except for in his last two matchups, which happen to have both been against the LA Rams. The Bills are not the Rams. Mostert is the RB1. San Fran needs offensive therapy. Mostert should cruise while the San Fran defense keeps this game close enough early to justify the 49ers utilizing the ground game. Mostert is the guy who benefits. He will be an RB1 this week.

Myles Gaskin vs CIN

While not necessarily the flashiest fantasy performer, Gaskin was getting the kind of volume you crave at RB before going down with an injury. He is back this week, and Cincinnati is throwing a Brandon Allen/Ryan Finley QB combo on the field like dirty laundry. Miami defense is going to feast, the Dolphins will get ahead, and Gaskin is going to see that volume once again. He does not have the RB1 upside you hope for in a starter, but he has the RB2 floor you will want to ensure production from every guy on your team. He had double-digit fantasy points in PPR in every game but one, a 9.2 fantasy point game against Seattle week 4. His floor is double digits against a Cincy D allowing the third-most rushing yards this year.

Sit

Alvin Kamara @ ATL

Atlanta has not been great defensively in 2020, that much we know. That being said, Kamara was held to 45 yards on 13 carries with 1 target and 0 catches in their last meet up two weeks ago. Taysom Hill allowed him 1 rushing TD then but has not allowed Kamara another since. This Taysom Hill offense just murdered Kamara’s fantasy value, and there are plenty of witnesses. It hurts the most in the receiving game, where Kamara has averaged 1.5 targets per game over his last two, versus 8.9 per game in his previous 9.

Kenyan Drake vs LAR

Do not start Drake against this defense. I know many are back on the Drake train after a few solid performances, but this is not the week to trust his resurgence. The Rams do not struggle against the run. In case you hadn’t heard, Aaron Donald plays for them. Drake has been trending up, and Drake truthers have been rejoicing, but reality is about to smack everybody in the face. Chase Edmonds has been the more effective RB for the Cardinals in virtually every statistical facet. The heartache is inbound, and the lack of involvement in the passing game is concerning, despite the small uptick recently. Drake has 15 catches on 20 targets for 84 yards and 0 receiving TDs on the year.

Start Em Sit Em WRs

Start

Corey Davis vs CLE

Cleveland has not been effective against the pass this year, and they have bigger things to worry about in King Henry and AJB. Davis should operate under their radar, and he will surpass his season averages of 4.7 catches on 6.4 targets to go with 68.8 yards per game. His 14.7 yards per catch are a career-high, along with his 72.4 catch percentage. We knew what Davis could become coming out of college, and he has begun to consistently deliver, at least in part, on all that promise. He also shares the field with two of the most dominant players at their respective positions.

Jamison Crowder vs LV

Crowder was averaging 11.5 targets per game in his first four of 2020, but he never saw that volume with Flacco and faced a tough matchup in Miami last week. This week he gets the Raiders who have yet to really stop anyone through the air. Look for Darnold to re-establish that Crowder connection this week. Yes, a healthy Mims and Perriman likely siphon a few looks away, but Darnold has more rapport with Crowder and this little catch machine will see the ball often as the Jets fight to get win number 1 in 2020. 10+ targets this week is going to equal fantasy success, albeit without the WR1 ceiling.

Sit

Keenan Allen vs NE

New England has been above-average against the pass this year, but they continue to be elite in taking away one option from an opposing offense. That option is going to be Allen. The Pats are going to force Herbert to beat them in other ways, and while I believe he manages, Allen will suffer on the fantasy field because of it. In his two career games against the Pats, Allen has averaged 3 catches on 4 targets for 32 yards with 0 TDs. Those are not the numbers you are hoping for from a guy who could legitimately be your WR1. Look elsewhere in this nasty matchup.

DeAndre Hopkins vs LAR

Guess who has a worse matchup? If you guessed Hopkins, I am not impressed, this is his paragraph, and I have already recommended against Murray and Drake. Ramsey should virtually eliminate any fantasy hope Hopkins owners have. Combine the elite coverage man with a QB who has been shaky, and you have a recipe for a sour milkshake. Hopkins has 106 receiving yards combined his last two weeks to go along with a respectable 10 catches for a 10.6 YPC avg. He isn’t exactly trending up heading into this nightmare matchup. Hopkins is obviously a start if you don’t have WR depth, but if you are especially deep there like many are, this might be the week to take a shot on someone with an easier opponent.

Start Em Sit Em TEs

Start

Noah Fant @ KC

Kansas City isn’t a plus matchup defensively, but it is more so the KC offense that has me liking Fant this week. Denver is going to be behind by the time they get off the bus and will be forced to throw constantly. I feel confident projecting they complete more passes this week than last. You can take that to the bank. Fant has disappointed many this year, but KC is weakest defensively against TE and Fant has the athleticism to break off a chunk play at any time. Chunk plays are what Denver is going to be forced to get to not be embarrassed. Despite his inconsistency so far this year, there are not many TEs with his upside this week.

Zach Ertz @ GB

GB is not a good matchup for TEs. Zach Ertz is anything but a traditional TE. Ertz is going to see 10+ targets as Philly desperately tries to stay in the playoff hunt against a potent GB offense. Despite a subpar start to the season, Ertz was averaging 7.5 targets per game, largely against truly exceptional defensive units like WAS, LAR, SFO, PIT, and BAL. In his lone game against Cincy, he went off for 7 catches and 70 yards. expect a similar performance against a Packer team that will go up early. Wentz needs someone to step up, and Ertz has been that guy in the past. Familiarity will breed success in this one.

Sit

Evan Engram @ SEA

Seattle D is no longer playing like a historically terrible unit, but this isn’t the Steel Curtain. That being said, it looks like Colt McCoy is starting this week for the G-men. This is terrible terrible news for every member of the Giants organization, in fantasy and otherwise. Engram has been remarkably healthy compared to his usual standards, and McCoy has shown himself willing to look Engram’s way, as evidenced by his 9 target 6 catch 129-yard gem last week. Seattle sees that too. Expect that defense to focus on Engram, forcing McCoy to actually play QB. That is not something he is good at doing, and Engram will suffer greatly because of it. The upside is still there, but I hate the QB situation so much that I can’t bring myself to start him when there are other options available.

Jared Cook @ ATL

Taysom Hill is not good for Jared Cook. To be fair, outside a few TDs salvaging his performances, Cook has been a major letdown this year. If you are figuring somehow that he figures it out this week against an Atlanta team that held him to 1 catch for 6 yards two weeks ago, figure again. It has been 4 weeks since Cook saw more than 3 targets, and he has two 0 catch games in his last three. He has not lived up to his name recognition, and it’s better that you figure that out later rather than never. He is not startable until Brees returns, and even then he is very TD dependent.

Thank you for reading Belly Up Start Em, Sit Em Week 13. You can find me on Twitter @realryanhicks, and follow @BellyUpFantasy for all your fantasy needs. Be sure to tune in live on Wednesdays at 7:30 CST for Belly Up Fantasy Live to hear us analyze every matchup for every game this week. Also, if you are looking for a gift for a man in your life, look no further than Manscaped. Use promo code BELLYUPFANTASY for 20% off your purchase. Treat that special man in your life with a gift of cleanliness. It’s next to godliness, you know.