Thanks for joining me for Belly Up Start Em, Sit Em Week 16! I’m looking at guys with favorable match ups who might be on the fringe of your starting lineups for your fantasy Championship. Also, we’re digging up players to avoid based on their matchups. You made it here, just win baby! Also, I’m sorry if the fantasy power that be let Alvin Kamara ruin your evening last night!

Start Em: QBs

Tom Brady @ Det

Tom Brady comes into the week having posted double digit touchdown passes in five consecutive games, three of which have been 300+ yard passing performances. This week the win hungry Buccaneers travel to Detroit who have one of the league’s worst pass defenses, allowing the most points to opposing QBs over the last month. Their 11 TD passes surrendered is tied for the most in the league over that span. Brady wins titles, and he is a great option to help you do that same!

Baker Mayfield @ NYJ

Browns QB Baker Mayfield has been on a terror lately, with 10 TD passes in his last four games. Three of those outings Baker has posted a completion percentage of over 65%. This week the Browns travel to play the New York Jets who are allowing the 8th most points to opposing QBs, and have also allowed 11 passing TDs over their last four games. The Jets have played well against opposing RBs, I expect the Browns will do most of their damage through the air as they continue to battle the Pittsburgh Steelers for the AFC North division title. This is a solid spot start for Baker in a must-win scenario.

Start Em: RBs

David Montgomery @ Jax

Kodos to you if you were able to make it this deep into the playoffs having drafted David Montgomery early in your fantasy drafts, but he’s paying huge dividends on that investment as of late. Montgomery has posted 100+ rushing yards in three of his last four games, and 100+ total yards in each of those four games. He has also hit paydirt six times during that stretch, and I don’t expect the Jaguars defense to slow him down this week. David Montgomery should continue to make good on your early round investment in Week 16 with your fantasy championship on the line!

Gio Bernard @ Hou

Giovani Bernard wins the award for coolest name in the NFL, and maybe best mustache of 2020 as well. In Week 15 Gio finally got the touches necessary for a RB to get in rhythm against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and he tallied his season high in touches and total yards. His 26 touches yielded 97 total yards and 2 rushing TDs. That volume is hard to leave out of your lineup, especially in a matchup against the Houston Texans who are allowing the 2nd most points to opposing RBs over the last month and have been among the league’s worst run defenses throughout the season. Gio is a high upside play this week in Houston.

Start Em: WRs

Antonio Brown @ Det

Antonio Brown has received 5+ targets in all but one outing since he joined the Buccaneers, and has finally started looking like himself as he gets more & more familiar with the offense. Last week Tom Brady hit Brown for a 46 yard TD. This week they travel to the dome in Detroit and take on the Lions who are allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing WRs. I expect Brady to keep looking for his roommate, and it to continue to get better by the week. Tampa Bay needs this win, and their passing attack should do whatever they want through the air. Antonio Brown offers a real boom possibility in this matchup, he is a fantastic WR3, flex option for your title game lineup.

CeeDee Lamb vs Phi

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb has been impressive in his rookie campaign. This week he faces a division foe who is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WRs in the Philadelphia Eagles. With rookie QB Jalen Hurts bringing some life to the Eagles offense, this game has great potential to be a shoot-out. Lamb has posted five or more targets in all but a single game this entire season. That volume, his talent, and the Eagles defense creates a perfect storm for a boom in Week 16.

Start Em: TEs

T.J. Hockenson vs TB

NFC Pro Bowl starter T.J. Hockenson has had a very impressive sophomore campaign. This week the Lions host the Buccaneers who are allowing the 3rd most points to opposing TEs, and have allowed 24 receptions on 26 targets over the last month. With Stafford set to play today, I expect Hockenson will play a large role in the Lions gameplan, especially in the redzone. Hockenson has a great opportunity to post top 5 TE numbers in this matchup.

Austin Hooper @ NYJ

Browns TE Austin Hooper has been somewhat disappointing for fantasy owners throughout 2020. However, he has scored a TD in two of his last three games, his QB is absolutely ballin’ right now, and he gets the best matchup for the TE position possible this week. The New York Jets have allowed the most points to opposing TEs over the last month, including 6 TDs over that span – the most in the entire league. Hooper is a great start this week, if he’s on your roster or available somehow on waivers, plug him in!

Sit Em: QBs

Jared Goff @ Sea

Rams QB Jared Goff has underwhelmed as of late, posting just a single 300 yard game in his last four outings. The Rams are traveling to Seattle coming off a home loss to the New York Jets, a game in which the entire offense looked pretty pathetic. The Seahawks pass defense got off to a historically bad start to 2020, but have really turned it around as of late. The Seahawks allow the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs over the last month while allowing just four passing TDs during that span, tied for 3rd fewest in the NFL. I am avoiding Jared Goff in a must win scenario this week!

Derek Carr vs Mia

Raiders QB Derek Carr made it back from a groin injury that sidelined him for a majority of his team’s Week 15 loss to the LA Chargers. This week the Miami Dolphins visit Sin City and they bring their stellar defense with them. Carr has thrown five interceptions in his last five games. The Dolphins are tied for 2nd in the NFL with 16 interceptions, and are boasting a league high in turnover percentage and the best offensive scoring percentage. The Raiders are in for a rough afternoon against the AFC East up and comers from Miami.

Sit Em: RBs

Kareem Hunt @ NYJ

Kareem Hunt has surpassed the 40 yard rushing mark just once in his last five games, and has just a single game with 30+ receiving yards in 2020. The New York Jets are surprisingly tough on opposing RBs allowing the 2nd fewest points, and 0 rushing TDs over their last four games. Teammate Nick Chubb has taken off since the second he got back on the field, this isn’t an attractive matchup for him either. I am avoiding Kareem Hunt in my Week 16 lineups.

Josh Jacobs vs Mia

I addressed the strength of the Dolphins defense earlier in this article, same tune carried into the Josh Jacobs conversation. Jacobs has been underwhelming throughout 2020. He hasn’t averaged 4ypc since Week 10, and only has a single touchdown in his last three games. Miami’s defense will likely suffocate the Raiders offense, and without a strong performance from the passing game it will be increasingly difficult for Jacobs to get loose against a defense allowing the fewest points to opposing RBs over the last four weeks. I am tempering my expectations for Josh Jacobs in this must win scenario.

Sit Em: WRs

Robert Woods @ Sea

Earlier in the season we picked on the Seattle secondary on a weekly basis. Now they’ve surrendered the fewest points to opposing WRs over the last month. During that span they haven’t allowed a single passing TD to a WR. Robert Woods has only scored 2 TDs over his last six outings. My confidence is wavering on the entire Rams offense this week.

Sit Em: TEs

Cole Kmet @ Jax

Bears TE Cole Kmet has been an attractive play with the volume in targets he has seen since wrestling the job from teammate Jimmy Graham. This week the Bears travel to Jacksonville and face off against a defense that has allowed the 5th fewest reception totals to opposing TEs. I expect the Bears to use RB David Montgomery and WR Allen Robinson to make quick work of the Jaguars in this matchup.

Thanks again for checkin’ out Belly Up Start Em, Sit Em Week 16! It’s Championship week!! You can follow me on Twitter @bwhitt24, and the rest of the fantasy crew @bellyupfantasy. Join us live on Twitter and Facebook Wednesday evenings at 7:30 PM CST for Belly Up Fantasy Live! Take a moment to like our new pages for our podcast, on Twitter @BUFantasyLive and find us on Facebook at Belly Up Fantasy Live. The crew will be breaking down the upcoming week’s fantasy outlook, and as always answering your questions in the comments! We have several talented writers joining the Belly Up team, be sure to check out their content coming soon! Enjoy 20% off of your www.manscaped.com purchase by using our promo code BELLYUPFANTASY. You’re Welcome!