Thursday, April 25, 2024

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Bijan is a Tier 1 RB

There seem to mainly be mainly two people in the dynasty world. People who see Bijan Robinson as the dynasty RB1 and people who think he’s not even close. This article will explain to the latter group why Bijan is a tier 1 RB to many. To be clear, this is for dynasty fantasy football. I would not say he’s tier 1 for redraft, though I could see him being one next year.

The Contenders

Here are the guys people generally have as contenders for the dynasty RB1: Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker III, and Austin Ekeler. I’ll explain why four of these guys shouldn’t be eligible.

McCaffrey, Barkley, and Ekeler

This is quite simple. All of these RBs are at least 26 years of age. Historically, this means these RBs are likely at or past their peak. Does that mean they can’t be the RB1 this upcoming season? Definitely not. In redraft, these are all tier 1 RBs for me. But this does mean that they are probably declining. Also, even if they aren’t declining, their value almost definitely will by next year.

This 26-year age wall is pretty well known in the dynasty community. So people looking for long-term RBs will start avoiding these players, regardless of how well they do. I do think they can possibly last longer than the average RB because they are good pass-catchers, but that may not be enough to preserve their value. Another thing to keep in mind is how much they’ll drop if they get injured. Breece Hall got injured and his value rose. That will not happen with these vets who are all past their rookie deals.

Kenneth Walker III

He’s up there and it’s close, but I don’t have him in the top tier. He can catch passes, but I don’t see him having the same receiver ceiling as the other three with regard to targets and yards. I am splitting hairs here since he’s so close, but I have him in a tier of his own after tier 1.

Seahawks’ running back Kenneth Walker III rushes against the Atlanta Falcons on September 25, 2022. Courtesy of Ashley Landis (AP)

What’s Special About Bijan?

He’s a great all-around prospect. He’s proven he can take the volume and be efficient with it. He doesn’t have a particularly elite offensive line or offence in general, so you can’t dismiss his production to the situation. He has the size and weight to be a bellcow too and has stayed healthy through the volume. He has the ability to run through contact, but also the footwork and vision to avoid it. Not only that, but he can run routes and make catches like a receiver. He’s not a bad pass-protector, but his one weakness will likely be his 40-time.

Wrap-Up

If this was 2018 in the younger days of Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Melvin Gordon III, Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt, Christian McCaffrey, and Dalvin Cook, then I would not have Bijan as a tier 1 prospect. But now it’s 2023. We’re now in a time when the best RBs are old in RB-years and the young ones didn’t even average over 17 points per game this season in PPR. The bar to be a tier 1 RB isn’t very high right now. So that’s why Bijan is a tier 1RB for me.

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