Tonight the Buffalo Bills will face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what could be a tighter matchup than some expect. As we analyze the game lines and key fantasy players, it’s clear that this contest presents opportunistic values in fantasy and betting.

Game Lines and Trends:

The lines for this matchup favor the Bills with an 8.5-point spread. The over/under total is set at 42 points. 

Taking the under seems to be the trend, as both teams have had most of their games stay under the projected total. The Buccaneers in particular have only had one of their matchups reach the over this year. The Bills’ offense has struggled recently as well, scoring only 34 points over the last 2 weeks. 

Quarterbacks: Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield

1. Josh Allen (QB – Buffalo Bills): Player Props: 261.5 Passing yards, 25.5 Rushing yards,1.5 Passing TD, .5 INT 

Despite suffering a shoulder injury against the Giants, Josh Allen hasn’t missed any time and is ranked as my QB3 this week. His production, however, has seen a possible correlated dip. He has been under the projected passing yardage mark in four out of seven games this season, primarily due to shorter passes over the middle as of late. Additionally, Allen has been running less, resulting in fewer rushing yards. 

However, he has gone over the projected passing touchdown mark in five out of seven games, showcasing his continued ability to find the end zone. 

Take Allen over the 1.5 passing TD mark. 

2. Baker Mayfield (QB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Player Props:229.5 Passing Yards and .5 INT

Ranked as my QB27, Baker Mayfield has faced some challenges recently, particularly with interceptions. He has thrown an interception in the last four consecutive games, indicating a potential vulnerability. Therefore, taking the over on interceptions may be a wise bet for this game.

Runningbacks: James Cook and Rachaad White

1. James Cook (RB – Buffalo Bills): Player Props:49.5 Rushing Yards and 17.5 Receiving Yards

Ranked as my RB23, James Cook has been a reliable option for the Bills in the running game. While he has gone over the projected rushing yardage mark in four out of seven games, the Buccaneers’ defense ranks 11th in rushing yards allowed to running backs. This suggests that Cook’s performance may be limited this week. Therefore, it might be prudent to take the under on his rushing yardage prop bet.

2. Rachaad White (RB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Player Props: 48.5 Rushing Yards and 21.5 Receiving Yards

Ranked as my RB21, Rachaad White has had an up-and-down season in terms of rushing yards. However, the Buffalo Bills’ defense has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to running backs. So White will have a rare opportunity to hit the over on his rushing yards prop. 

White’s production in the receiving game feels more like a lock. He has gone over the projected receiving yardage mark in four out of six games, and the Bills have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs.

Wide Receivers: Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Gabe Davis

1. Stefon Diggs (WR – Buffalo Bills): Player Props: 87.5 Receiving Yards

Ranked as my WR2, Stefon Diggs has been as consistent as they come, going over the projected receiving yardage mark in five out of seven games this season. He should once again be in a spot to reach the over tonight.

2. Mike Evans (WR – Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Player Props:56.5 Receiving Yards and 4.5 Receptions 

Ranked as my WR10, Mike Evans has been a touchdown machine this season, scoring in all but two games. Although he has gone over the projected receiving yardage mark in four out of six games, his true value lies in his ability to find the end zone for an anytime TD. Fantasy owners should expect another strong performance from Evans with no elite cornerback matchups to be avoided.

3. Chris Godwin (WR- Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Player Props:52.5 ReceivingYards and 4.5 Receptions 

Ranked as my WR32 this week, Godwin has seen an uptick in volume over the past two weeks. However, he still has yet to produce a receiving TD or 100-yard performance relegating him to a WR3.

The value on Godwin comes from taking the over on his receptions tonight. He has been over the mark in all but one game so far this season.

4. Gabe Davis (WR- Buffalo Bills): Player Props:39.5 Receiving Yards 

Ranked as my WR46, Davis has suffered since Allen hurt his shoulder and the deep throws have become limited. Until Josh Allen looks more like himself the upside we count on for Gabe becomes limited. I would leave him on your benches this week.

Tight Ends: Dalton Kincaid

1. Dalton Kincaid (TE – Buffalo Bills): Player Props:37.5 Receiving Yards

Ranked as my TE9, is set to see more playing time with Dawson Knox headed to the IR after wrist surgery. This should lead to a more consistent target share from Josh Allen. While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a relatively tough matchup against tight ends this season, Kincaid could emerge as a must-start fantasy option.

For more content from Dan Mader, host of the MD’s Fantasy Football Show, visit the youtube channel, or get the edge by viewing his industry-accurate rankings here.