Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

Buy Low Sell High Week 4

As we approach the quarter mark of the fantasy season, keep in mind that the season is still young. There are still trades to be made and value to be found. Since we have already done Buy Low Sell High week 1, 2, and 3, let’s make our way to week 4 and see what kind of value differentials we can take advantage of.

Buy Low- Greg Ward

Yep. I said buy Greg Ward. At least the dude is healthy right now.

8 catches on 11 targets for 72 yards and a TD. That was Greg Ward’s line last week. Who else is there to throw to in this WR corps? Ward is the default answer, and because he has produced at a decent rate, he should continue getting looks in this depleted WR corps. With his catch rate currently at 73.7%, he is the most sure-handed healthy WR in that building. If he continues to catch the ball at that rate, he is going to force Philadelphia to play him even when everyone is healthy. Availability is the most important ability, and right now Ward has it.

Sell High- Rex Burkhead

Even Burkhead looks shocked at his performance last week. We were too, Rex, we were too.

6 rushes for 49 yards and 2 TDs, along with 7 catches on 10 targets for 49 yards and another score. Burkhead likely lit up benches and waiver-wires everywhere. But if you have him, or you snag him on the wire, flip him now. James White is coming back and is the better version of Burkhead. You likely won’t get much for him, but there are RB needy teams out there who might part with a WR for temporary RB depth. Or a second round next year in dynasty. Hold those RB desperate owners hostage and wring as much as you can out of Burkhead while his value is existent.

Buy Low- Rob Gronkowski

Last week, we saw flashes of old Gronk. This looks like a face old Gronk would make.

I saw flashes of the old Gronk in week 3. It was the way he was moving. He looked comfortable for the first time. Snag him now. Godwin also might be out for an extended period. There wasn’t a better time for Gronk to hint at his real return. It would not shock me to see top 10 TE production from here on out. If you watched that game, you saw him. He looked different. Better. Expect Brady to look his way more, as he surely has become more comfortable in this offense.

Sell High- Jimmy Graham

Get excited about Graham’s week 3 if you want. I will sell sell sell. Because he’s a shell shell shell.

What a big game for Graham in week 3. 6 catches on a whopping 10 targets, for 60 yards and 2 scores. An incredible fantasy performance no doubt. But please remember, this is the artist formerly known as Jimmy Graham Do not think he somehow morphed into his old self. He remains a red-zone threat due to his size, but he’s sporting a 55.6 catch percentage, a career-worst, and is averaging 10.3 YPC, which is the second-lowest of his career. The warning signs are everywhere. Sell Graham after that performance, he is declining in a multitude of ways and will remain touchdown-dependent. Hope someone remembers his 16 TD 2013, and pawn him off to them.

Buy Low- Brian Hill

Sneaky suspicion: A few lucky fantasy owners will ride Hill by midseason, just like that defender.

9 carries for 58 yards, and 1 TD. efficient work on 9 carries. But this has less to do with Hill’s efficiency and more to do with Todd Gurley. He looked bad last week. Numbers can lie. Watching him move, I noticed a significant decline in his explosiveness and burst. While this could be a one week incident, it is Gurley, and we know about his knees. Hill may be about to fall into a lot more touches, and in this high-powered offense, touches equal fantasy excellence. Gurley is likely declining, snag Hill before he falls of a cliff and reap those rewards for the rest of the year.

Sell High- Nick Foles

Nope. I am not doing this. Foles is not very good in the regular season guys. This is just “Foles Gold”

QB A has a 55.17 completion percentage, 3:1 TD:INT ratio, and is averaging -1 yards per rush. QB B has a 59.3 completion percentage, 6:3 TD:INT ratio, and is averaging 10.9 yards per rush. Keep in mind QB A also has a 61.8 career completion percentage. QB B has a 63.1 career completion percentage. Lastly, QB A has a career record of 26-22, QB B a record of 26-18. QB A is Nick Foles. QB B is Mitchell Trubisky. Foles is starting this week. How long do you suspect that lasts considering those numbers I just shared with you? Yes, Chicago looked better when Foles came in, but let’s see what week 4 has in store. If I have Foles, I am selling him while he starts, because I doubt it lasts too long.

Thanks for reading Buy Low Sell High Week 4, now get out there and trade! Agree, or Disagree? Let me know, maybe change my mind. Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks, and follow @BellyUpFantasy for all your fantasy needs. On to week 4 of football! Speaking of balls, Manscaped is your go-to destination for all things grooming related. Stop treating your junk like junk. Manscaped is currently offering 20% off of all purchases with Promo Code: BELLYUPFANTASY.