Let’s discuss how to make the moves a champion would make. The biggest mistake you can make at this time of year is being content with your team. In 2018 I was riding the stack of Drew Brees and Michael Thomas to a dominating regular season. I think I had only lost two weeks heading into week 11 that year. I should have seen that Brees and Thomas were both heading for a downturn considering their schedule. From weeks 11 to 16, Thomas had 4 of of 6 weeks scoring under 15 points. Drew Brees low scores also played a factor in me losing in the first round of the playoffs. I wasn’t deep enough or prepared because I did not think to look at the remaining games as a new season.

What I now try to do is find the small edges during the season to outmaneuver my opponents. Let’s take a look at a scenario that can sometimes make or break a playoff run or playoff berth. Given the new length of the NFL season, most fantasy playoffs are starting in week 15. It may be different for your league, but I will assume the settings of PPR and single QB leagues. The scenarios I am referring to are the BYE weeks that happen in weeks 11-14. Most of the BYE weeks have already happened, but there are still some key players who have BYEs. This could be a crucial matchup that could be the difference between making the playoffs or missing the playoffs.

What if week 13 rolls around and you have Davante Adams on BYE? I am not saying to trade Davante Adams, but just using him as an example. If you need to win and Adams is on BYE, you may have to start Jaylen Waddle or Jerry Jeudy. You also may have to take a risk at a flex with someone like Cole Beasley or Javonte Williams. I am not saying these players are bad, but they are WR2s and WR3s for a reason. They are inconsistent and you need consistency when playing the odds and putting yourself in the best position to win.

Would you start one of them or trade Adams for someone who had a BYE and is on the rise? You would have a better chance of scoring above average at that position. I believe the odds of you scoring above average are higher if you traded for Stefon Diggs or Justin Jefferson. The other advantage would be you could do a multi-player trade as well to add some value. You could get more depth at the WR position or another position you may need.

There are many factors that determine who to trade and what makes a good trade or a bad trade. For instance, lineup structure for both you and your trade partner, league scoring settings, and strength of schedule remaining. That is why this is a guide to some possible opportunities you may be able to find. I’ve put together a list that I think would be ideal to buy based on remaining schedule and BYEs. Below is a list of guys that would be sell candidates based on the same factors. I also factored in the value they could return. All leagues are different and all owners value different things. Good luck and be smart about using any information you can to your advantage.

Buy Candidates

Derek Carr | QB | Las Vegas Raiders Derek

Derek Carr is my top QB buy candidate. Trading Patrick Mahomes for a big piece at WR or RB and Carr would give you an advantage. Carr is most likely on an owner’s bench or is someone’s second QB. That should make it easier to trade for him. Carr had his BYE, has the easiest strength of schedule remaining. He also has only three games under 15 points and has four games over 20 points. Carr would provide some stability for a playoff run and some boom ability. He is ranked 5th in red zone attempts, 4th in deep ball attempts, and 4th in completed air yards among quarterbacks.

Dak Prescott | QB | Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott would be a costly buy right now. If you package a deal, you could come out the winner of the trade and your league. I know I keep mentioning Mahomes, but he would be easier to sell for high value. If you sold a Kansas City stack of Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, you should be able to bring back a Dak and someone like Mike Evans or Keenan Allen at WR. If you need a RB more, you could get someone back like Leonard Fournette or Darrell Henderson.

Antonio Gibson | RB | Washington Football Team

Unfortunately, this past week Antonio Gibson probably boosted his price tag a bit with a 24 touch performance. I wish I got this article out before because Gibson has been on my radar for a while. Now healthy, he is the clear lead in that backfield and has the most touchdown upside for Washington’s running backs. If you own Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, then I would trade Jones and Dillon in a package for Gibson and a player. It would be hard to do with the injury, but you could make it happen.

Amari Cooper | WR | Dallas Cowboys

If you are buying Dak Prescott, then why not try to pair him with Amari Cooper? It could be the perfect timing to buy Cooper. He is coming off of two sub 10 point performances and owners could be getting a little anxious. With CeeDee Lamb having a good performance this past week, that should also help keep Cooper’s price a bit lower. He has been quieter than most thought he would be. For the rest of the fantasy season and the fantasy playoffs, he has one of the easiest schedules. Being on a top offense does not hurt as well. The one downfall to watch, would be if the Cowboys rest some players over the finals weeks. Cooper is a guy who can get you to the playoffs and a deep run in the end.

Sell Candidates

Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes looked to figure everything out this week. That will only help your case in getting value back for him. If you can get a top player and Carr for Mahomes then I would do it. Mahomes has not had his BYE yet and you are going to have to start a risky QB in Week 12. I prefer having Derek Carr or Dak Prescott rather than the risk of a streamer. It has been clear Mahomes hasn’t been right all year, and I don’t think anything has changed Sunday. The Raider’s defense has rated better than they are thanks to an easy schedule featuring QBs the likes of Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, and Ben Roethlisberger. You can get a lot for him considering his remaining schedule is one of the toughest remaining in the NFL. It wouldn’t shock me if Mahomes averaged sub 20 points the rest of the way. You need better than that considering his draft capital.

Darrel Williams | RB | Kansas City

Darrel Williams has some boom performances like this past week and week 6, but there is a reason he has the few games where a Kansas City running back scored over 20 points. It is ultimately not in the Chiefs’ DNA with Mahomes at QB to allow that to happen. It is a perfect time to sell after his performance this week and before Clyde Edwards-Helaire returns. You may not be able to get top dollar for him, but he is worth something. I would look to get a Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, or Elijah Mitchell for him. If it is WR you are looking for, take a look at trying to get Elijah Moore, Brandon Aiyuk, or Jerry Jeudy.

Michael Pittman | WR | Indianapolis Colts

Michael Pittman has been nothing but a breakout candidate this year. Right now, we need to look at the near future. Pittman has hype around him, meaning you may be able to sell him for an inflated price from his value. Not to add to it, but the unknown of T.Y. Hilton coming back could also throw a wrench into things. Pittman not only has his BYE week coming up in week 14, but he also has some matchups with the Bills, Patriots, and Cardinals remaining. I think now is the time to sell him for someone like Terry McLaurin or Chris Godwin. If you need a RB, take a look at Saquon Barkley or Leonard Fournette.

DeAndre Hopkins | WR | Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have a lot of question marks right now with injuries to both DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray. Given these factors, I am looking to unload those assets where I can. With the injury, we will not be able to get as much for Hopkins as usual. I would consider Mike Williams, Tyler Lockett, or Adam Thielen as an upgrade to my roster for the likes of Hopkins. Hopkins could be held out until after the team’s BYE week in week 12. After that, he gets the Rams week 14. With the injury and schedule, he could only be useful to your team for half the remaining season. That may not be enough for you.

The key is to be viewing what is left of this season as a whole new season. What has happened to this point should not carry all the value of a player. What should matter more are the individual matchups, availability (BYE weeks or injuries), and proof of consistency in past years. Someone who has a ranking of top 15 inflated by two weeks, could perform as a WR3 in the playoffs. No prediction is perfect, and everything we advise comes with its risk. All we can do is put ourselves in the best position to have the best odds to win each week.

Full List of Targets Based on BYE Weeks and Playoff Strength of Schedule

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